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The risk of a Russian offensive from Belarus into northern Ukraine remains low — ISW

The risk of a Russian offensive from Belarus into northern Ukraine remains low, Institute for the study of war assesses. That’s despite the recent statement by Ukraine’s Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov, who said that the threat of a second offensive from the territory of Belarus is increasing and that, if conducting the offensive, Russia would most likely attack not Kyiv but the western part of Ukraine.

At the same time, he said that Ukraine makes all necessary steps to prevent such a scenario and, in case of a new Russian attack from Belarus, repel it. Recently, numerous Ukrainian military drills were conducted near the border of Belarus, where significant Ukraine’s units are forced to stay to protect the area from Belarus.

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