Russia’s proxies hold an urgent discussion of the need to hold referenda to join the Russian Federation in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. Ukrainian counter-offensive successes are degrading morale among Russian elite units. Ukrainian forces are likely continuing limited and localized offensive operations across the Oskil River and along the Lyman-Yampil-Bilohorivka line. Russian forces continued ground attacks south of Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces are continuing to strike Russian military, transportation, and logistics assets in Kherson Oblast. Russia is deploying air defense systems and anti-aircraft missiles from the St. Petersburg region, possibly to Ukraine. Russian troops fired on the South Ukrainian nuclear power plant. The Baltic countries and Poland ban entrance for Russian tourists. Germany will provide Ukraine with four more Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers with ammunition. The United States will help Ukraine as much as it takes, despite the energy blackmail of the Russian Federation, Biden said.
Daily overview — Summary report, September 20
A map of the approximate situation on the ground in Ukraine as of 00:00 20/09/22. pic.twitter.com/9s99qeXw8k
— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) September 20, 2022
The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, September 17, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below.
Military Updates
Ukrainian defenders have recaptured more than 60,000 km² of the territory since April.
A successful step-by-step counter-attack is reflected on the map.
The map is made by @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. pic.twitter.com/kOHBCJwXAo
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 19, 2022
Ukraine is in confidential talks with the US on the transfer of fourth-generation American F-16 fighter jets, Gray Eagle reconnaissance and strikes drones, and Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Politico received information about this. The publication says that the “quiet” method of negotiations was chosen in order to avoid an exacerbated reaction from Russia.
Russia is deploying air defense systems and anti-aircraft missiles from the St. Petersburg region, possibly to Ukraine, reports the Finnish edition of Yle, citing satellite images and expert commentary. These images show that mobile firing platforms and missiles disappeared from the base on the Karelian Isthmus. According to Yle, St. Petersburg has long been surrounded by a protective ring of 14 air defense bases, and several of them are empty at the moment.
Ukraine’s recent successes on the battlefield will not change Russia’s plans. It will still continue its offensive in the Donbas. This is stated in a secret NATO intelligence report. According to the expectations of NATO experts, Russia will intensify hostilities, especially with the use of conventional weapons, destroying infrastructure in all directions.
Russian occupiers launched 4 missile and 9 air strikes on Sept. 19 – Ukraine’s General Staff
Also, they carried out more than 11 attacks from rocket salvo systems on military and civilian objects in Ukraine violating the customs of warfare.https://t.co/U6wT9Gq6nA
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 20, 2022
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1572035312875757568
Regional Updates
Alleged Ukrainian strike destroys another Russian base in occupied Alchevsk, Luhansk Oblast, last night
Russian forces set up their military base on the premises of the local business college long before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukrainehttps://t.co/JXSz4nPeis
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 20, 2022
In the Luhansk Oblast, the Ukrainian army liberated Belohorivka. The head of the OVA Serhiy Haidai noted that the settlement has now been completely cleared and has come under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Russian invaders planned to mobilize 500 men in Luhansk Oblast, but haven’t managed – Ukraine's Intelligence
Also, Russian occupiers are trying to mobilize men in occupied Kherson Oblast. https://t.co/0iK89XysWO
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 19, 2022
In the Donetsk Oblast, Russians launched a massive blow to Avdiivka. The city center suffered. In addition, at night the invaders fired at Toretsk, New York, and Kramatorsk. In Toretsk, 1 killed.
Local residents meet Ukrainian defenders in liberated Sviatohirsk city, Donetsk Oblast
Sviatohirsk city was under Russian occupation for 3 months.
📷 АрміяInform pic.twitter.com/J9hQhVjVYN
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 19, 2022
In the Kharkiv Oblast, the bodies of two children were exhumed at the site of a mass burial near Izium. The children died as a result of an airstrike by Russian bombers on a five-story building. As of today, about 160 bodies have already been exhumed. Determining the cause of death of all deceased is challenging but there are recorded cases of deaths of civilians due to torture. The police do not specify the exact number of such cases. The majority of civilians died due to enemy shelling. Forensic experts plan to complete the exhumation procedure by the end of this week, but in the future, they will have to find out the exact causes of death of all buried and establish their identities. The exact number of people buried at this location is currently unknown.
In the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the Russians fired on the Zelenodolsk from heavy artillery. The scale of the destruction is being specified. 1 wounded. An explosion in Kryvyi Rih Vilkul is reported.
In the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian troops attacked the city of Zaporizhzhia, two infrastructure objects hit. One missile hit the regional center, near the Dnipro river. A village in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast was hit as well. In Enerhodar, the Russian military is shelling the opposite bank of the Kakhovka reservoir, while launching shells at the objects of the industrial zone of the city. As a result of this shelling, the water supply is disrupted. An explosion reported at the airfield in Melitopol.
About 15:00 on Sep 19, more explosions occurred in the area of the Russian-controlled Melitopol airfield, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
This is one of two main rear airfields in Ukraine's occupied south where Russia often concentrates military equipment & troops
📹https://t.co/0s8GQl3nu6 pic.twitter.com/qd9pgz4VWo— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 19, 2022
The units of Russian occupiers in the Kherson Oblast are trying to surrender
According to the press center head of Operational Command “South” Nataliia Humeniuk, Russian invaders are “wedged between the [Ukrainian] defense forces and the right bank”.https://t.co/tVxItuchL2
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 19, 2022
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1571967617069289472
According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours):
- The command of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has almost certainly relocated its KILO-class submarines from their home port of Sevastopol in Crimea to Novorossiysk in Krasnodar Krai, southern Russia.
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This is highly likely due to the recent change in the local security threat level in the face of increased Ukrainian long-range strike capability. In the last two months, the fleet headquarters and its main naval aviation airfield have been attacked.
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Guaranteeing the Black Sea Fleet’s Crimea basing was likely one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s motivations for annexing the peninsula in 2014. Base security has now been directly undermined by Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine.
Losses of the Russian army
As of 17 September, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:
⚰️russia's combat losses in Ukraine as of September 20
▪ 54810 killed soldiers (+160)
▪ 4724 APV (+4)
▪ 2216 tanks (+4)
▪ 1323 artillery systems (+10)
▪ 252 aircraft (+2) and 217 helicopters
▪ 15 boats and cutters#StopRussia #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/nMjG71GA4V— VoxUkraine (@voxukraine) September 20, 2022
Infomap: Russian military bases and ammunition depots destroyed on September 12-18.
📷https://t.co/8fwJfmyOYh pic.twitter.com/PrEXdCP6oJ
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 19, 2022
Humanitarian
In police department of liberated from Russian invaders Izium city Ukrainian investigators found torture room – Kharkiv Oblast Police
Investigators found Russian invaders' list of detainees and torture tools – electrical cables.https://t.co/idoDV9b5S8
Photo: Kharkiv Police pic.twitter.com/vo4kABtveA— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 20, 2022
#Russia claims #Ukraine ‘abducted’ the #Sri_Lankan students freed after months in #Russian captivity #Vovchansk #Kharkiv #StandWithUkraine #RussiaWarCrimes #StopRussiahttps://t.co/ans1JrkeAI pic.twitter.com/w5BY7Nit6I
— Halya Coynash (@halyapuff) September 20, 2022
Environmental
Russia shelled industrial zone of Southern Ukrainian nuclear power plant, Mykolaiv Oblast – Energoatom
Last night at 00:20, a Russian missile hit the industrial zone of the South Ukrainian NPP landing 300 meters from the nuclear reactorshttps://t.co/2634SOjF6M
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 19, 2022
Legal
#Russia #Luhansk proxies ‘sentence’ two #OSCE employees to 13 years on grotesque treason charges #Ukraine #StandWithUkraine #StopRussia https://t.co/H74AL3yWFx pic.twitter.com/ROMqGrGTVD
— Halya Coynash (@halyapuff) September 19, 2022
Support
Slovenia will supply 28 M-55S tanks to Ukraine
Germany will provide 35 trucks and 5 automobile tanks to Slovenia in exchange.https://t.co/RXORsQ5b9U
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 20, 2022
Germany promises to supply 2 Mars II MLRS, 50 Dingo APC to Ukraine
Dingo APC is used for reconnaissance. Mars II is the German analogue of HIMARS, its flight range is 40 km.
Also, Germany will train Ukrainian military. https://t.co/zbao4VutJj
📷 German DefMin pic.twitter.com/gU6M4dTk6t— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 19, 2022
New Developments
Russian proxies call for referendums in Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts asap – Russian propaganda media
Russian proxies want to hold referendums in so-called “LNR” and “DNR” to become a part of the Russian Federation. https://t.co/w4LkLtwcTQ
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 19, 2022
The US has no evidence that China is supplying weapons to Russia, said US president Biden, adding that he personally warned Chinese leader Xi Jinping against helping Russia bypass Western sanctions. This probably also played a role in Beijing’s position. Biden does not believe that the world is in a “new, more complex cold war” — in his opinion, the international situation is manageable.
The “Public Chamber of the LNR” turned to the leader of the “republic” Pasechnik with the initiative to immediately hold a referendum on recognizing it as a subject of the Russian Federation.
Ukraine will donate grain as humanitarian aid to Ethiopia and Somalia because of the threat of famine in these countries, as stated in the decree of the Cabinet of Ministers.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres called on Ukraine and Russia to conduct an exchange of prisoners and added in an interview with Russian media that he does not yet see the conditions for direct negotiations between Zelensky and Putin.
Assessment
- On the war.
The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of 19 September, 2022:
Urgent discussion on September 19 among Russia’s proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of the latter of which is not under Russian control) suggests that Ukraine’s ongoing northern counter-offensive is panicking proxy forces and some Kremlin decision-makers. The legislatures of Russia’s proxies in occupied Ukraine, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR), each called on their leadership to “immediately” hold a referendum on recognizing the DNR and LNR as Russian subjects.[1] Russian propagandist and RT Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan spoke glowingly of the call, referring to it as the “Crimean scenario.” She wrote that by recognizing occupied Ukrainian land as Russian territory, Russia could more easily threaten NATO with retaliatory strikes for Ukrainian counterattacks, “untying Russia’s hands in all respects.”[2]
This approach is incoherent. Russian forces do not control all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Annexing the claimed territories of the DNR and LNR would, therefore, have Russia annex oblasts that would be by Kremlin definition partially ”occupied” by legitimate Ukrainian authorities and advancing Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian strikes into Russian-annexed Crimea clearly demonstrate that Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s illegally annexed territory do not automatically trigger Russian retaliation against NATO, as Simonyan would have her readers believe. Partial annexation at this stage would also place the Kremlin in the strange position of demanding that Ukrainian forces unoccupy “Russian” territory, and the humiliating position of being unable to enforce that demand. It remains very unclear that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be willing to place himself in such a bind for the dubious benefit of making it easier to threaten NATO or Ukraine with escalation he remains highly unlikely to conduct at this stage.
Russian leadership may be running out of ways to try to stop Ukrainian forces as they advance across the Oskil River and closer to Luhansk Oblast. The Kremlin may believe that partial annexation could drive recruitment of additional forces, both from within Russia and from within newly annexed Ukrainian territory. Russian forces are desperately attempting to mobilize additional forces from all potential sources to backfill their heavily degraded and demoralized units but have proven unable to generate significant combat power, as ISW has repeatedly written.[3]
This latest annexation discussion also omits other parts of Russian-occupied southern Ukraine in which the Kremlin was previously planning sham annexation referenda. A willingness to abandon the promise to bring all the occupied areas into Russia at the same time would be a significant retreat for Putin to make in the eyes of the hardline pro-war groups he appears to be courting. It remains to be seen if he is willing to compromise himself internally in such a fashion. The Kremlin’s proxies in Donbas regularly outpace Kremlin messaging, on the other hand, and may have done so again as they scramble to retain their occupied territory in the face of Ukraine’s successful and ongoing counter-offensive.
Recent Ukrainian counter-offensive successes are further reducing the already poor morale among Russian units that had been considered elite before February 24. Independent Belarusian media outlet Vot Tak posted images of intercepted documents left behind by Russian soldiers of Unit 31135 of the 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division as they fled Izium en masse.[4] The signed documents (dated to August 30, prior to Ukraine’s counter-offensive in Kharkiv on September 7) include written pleas to commanders of Unit 31135 to dismiss the letters’ authors due to persistent “physical and moral fatigue.”[5] Ukrainian intelligence claimed that 90% of the personnel of the 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment wrote damning reports on the state of morale as early as May 23, 2022.[6] The 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division is one of three divisions of the 1st Guards Tank Army, which, prior to the current war in Ukraine, was considered Russia’s premier mechanized force and was to be Russia’s key force in a large-scale conventional war with NATO.[7] The intercepted letters indicate pervasive morale issues among Russia’s most elite units and the degradation of Russia’s conventional capabilities against NATO.
Key Takeaways
- Urgent discussion on September 19 among Russia’s proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of the latter of which are not under Russian control) suggests that Ukraine’s ongoing northern counter-offensive is panicking proxy forces and some Kremlin decision-makers.
- Ukrainian counter-offensive successes are degrading morale among Russian units that were regarded as elite prior to the invasion of Ukraine.
- Ukrainian forces are likely continuing limited and localized offensive operations across the Oskil River and along the Lyman-Yampil-Bilohorivka line.
- Russian forces continued ground attacks south of Bakhmut.
- Ukrainian forces are continuing to strike Russian military, transportation, and logistics assets in Kherson Oblast.
- Ukrainian and Russian sources identified three areas of kinetic activity on September 19: northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and in northern Kherson Oblast near Olhine.
- The size of volunteer units Russia can generate is likely decreasing.