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Russo-Ukrainian War. Day 202: The Ukrainian army liberates more than 6,000 square kilometers

byHans Petter Midttun
13/09/2022
28 minute read
Russo-Ukrainian War. Day 202: The Ukrainian army liberates more than 6,000 square kilometers
Article by: Hans Petter Midttun

The Ukrainian army liberates more than 6,000 square kilometers, including the entire northeast of the Kharkiv Oblast and about 500 sq km in the south, from the Russian invaders, launches more than 100 strikes on the Russian positions in the south and continues to advance. Russians likely order the withdrawal of its troops from the entirety of occupied Kharkiv Oblast west of the Oskil River. Zelenskyy rejects negotiations with Russia.  More than 800 Ukrainian settlements remain without electricity after the Russian attacks. Nine more ships with grain leave Ukrainian ports. The second backup power line to Zaporizhzhia NPP restored. Bodies of four tortured civilians found in a liberated village in the Kharkiv region. Ukraine calls for more Western arms after the Russian setback. Ukraine received $18B in aid from international partners.

Daily Review, September 13 2022

The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, September 9, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below. 

Situation in Ukraine. September 12, 2022. Source: ISW.

 

“Russian forces continue to focus their efforts on establishing control over the territory of Donetsk oblast, maintaining the temporarily captured territories and disrupting the offensive of our troops in certain directions.

Donetsk Battle Map. September 12, 2022. Source: ISW.

Russian forces conduct aerial reconnaissance and inflict fire damage on the units of our troops, try to take measures to restore the lost position, and move its troops. A further threat of air and missile strikes remains on the entire territory of Ukraine.

[Russian occupiers continue their tactics of terror and intimidation of the civilian population of Ukraine. Unable to respond on the battlefield, Russian troops once again hit the critical infrastructure of peaceful Ukrainian cities with missiles. Energy, water supply, factories, and residential buildings in the cities of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kostyantynivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk were hit by rockets and MLRS.] Airstrikes and shelling from anti-aircraft missiles damaged the infrastructure in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka, Vesela Dolyna, Zaytseve, Yuryivka, New York, Pervomaiske, Kamianka, Stepove, Mali Shcherbaki, Sukhy Stavok, Kostromka, Bila Krynytsia, Myrne, Shyroke, Partyzanske and Lyubomyrivka settlements were damaged

In general, during the past 24 hours, the Russian occupiers launched two missile strikes, twenty-five airstrikes, and eleven MLRS strikes on military and civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine. [Yesterday, Russian forces launched 5 missile strikes, and more than 10 airstrikes and conducted more than 20 attacks from MLRS on military and civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine.]

The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly.

In other directions, Russian forces shelled the infrastructure with mortars, tanks, combat vehicles, artillery and MLRS:

  • in the Siversky direction – near Atynske and Stukalivka, Sumy oblast;
  • in the Kharkiv direction – in the districts of Kozacha Lopan, Baranivka and Kupiansk;
  • in the Kramatorsk direction – in the areas of the settlements of Pryshyb, Bilogorivka, Kramatorsk, Sloviyansk, Staryi Karavan, Starodubivka, Spirne, Rozdolivka and Hryhorivka;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – in the areas of the settlements of Sukha Balka, Mykolayivka Druha, Zaitseve, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Vesela Dolyna;
  • in the Avdiivka direction – the settlements of Avdiivka, Orlivka, Lastochkyne, Krasnohorivka, Vodyane, Mariinka and Novomykhailivka;
  • in the Novopavlivskyyi direction – near Vuhledar, and Prechystivka, Novoukrainka and Vremivka;
  • in the Zaporizhzhia region – in the areas of Kamyanske, Mala Tokmachka, Shcherbaky, Charivne, Nesteryanka, Orihiv, Bilohirya, Zaliznychne, Temyrivka, Novopole and Vremivka settlements.

Enemy artillery shelling along the contact line was recorded in the Pivdenny Buh direction. In addition, Russian forces carried out aerial reconnaissance by UAVs – they made 23 flights. [Yesterday, Russian forces carried out aerial reconnaissance by UAVs – they made 56 flights.]

Due to heavy losses during the hostilities, the level of morale and psychological state in the units formed in the temporarily occupied territories decreased significantly. According to available information, in order to improve the state of combat readiness of the 2nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps, the command of the brigade issued an order not to pay stipends to servicemen who are temporarily absent, in particular, undergoing treatment. Resumption of payments occurs only after the presentation of supporting documents and with the personal permission of the commander.

The defence forces successfully repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Zayitseve, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Krasnohorivka, Vodyane, Bezimenne and Novohrihorivka settlements. [Yesterday, defence forces successfully repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Mayorsk, Mykolayivka Druha, Bakhmut, Krasnohorivka, Mariinka and Novomykhailivka.]

During the day, the Ukrainian Air Force carried out nine strikes – damage was inflicted on seven strongholds and places where Russian manpower and equipment were concentrated, and two positions of his anti-aircraft missile systems were destroyed. Losses of manpower and equipment of the occupiers are clarified. [Yesterday, the Air Force carried out seven strikes – five strongholds and places of concentration of manpower and equipment were hit, and two positions of Russian anti-aircraft defence were destroyed.]

Over the past day, units of missile forces and artillery hit command and control points, areas where Russian manpower and combat equipment are concentrated. The radio-electronic warfare complex, the “Zoopark” radar station, artillery units and ammunition depots fell into the affected area.

Up to two hundred bloody war crimes committed by the Russian occupiers are recorded every day on the temporarily occupied and already liberated Ukrainian territories. Mine danger in liberated towns and villages remains high, with more than seventy thousand square kilometres in ten oblasts mined with ammunition and explosives. The defence forces are taking measures to return peaceful life to the liberated communities as soon as possible.

The military command of the Russian Federation suspends sending new, already formed units to the territory of Ukraine. The current situation in the theatre of operations and distrust of the higher command forced a large number of volunteers to categorically refuse the prospect of service in combat conditions. The situation is affected by information about the actual number of dead, while losses from private military companies and those mobilized from temporarily occupied territories are not taken into account. The situation worsens due to the general attitude towards their own wounded. In particular, in Russian hospitals, diagnoses and the nature of combat injuries are deliberately simplified, and no time is given for rehabilitation to quickly return servicemen to the combat zone.

[Stabilization actions are ongoing in the liberated territories, and there is still a high risk of mine danger. Mass crimes committed by Russian forces on Ukrainian soil, facts of violations of international humanitarian law and the rules of warfare are recorded. Representatives of the military administrations, together with the Defense Forces, are doing everything possible to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe, which is the result of constant shelling, missile and airstrikes by Russian forces, lack of electricity, food and medicine during the previous activities in the previously captured territories by Russian invaders. The work on the evacuation of the civilian population from the war zone does not stop].”

Military Updates 

Ukrainian Armed Forces liberate more than 6,000 square kilometers and continue to advance: Zelenskyy, Ukrainska Pravda reports. “Since the beginning of September, our warriors have liberated more than 6,000 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory in the east and south [of the country]. Our troops are continuing to advance.”

Kharkiv Battle Map. September 12, 2022. Source: ISW.

The Ukrainian army has liberated the entire northeast of the Kharkiv region from the Russian occupiers, Ukrainska Pravda reports. “The soldiers of the Azov Kharkiv Special Operations Forces (SOF) and the 14th Mechanised Brigade named after Prince Roman the Great liberated and cleared the entire northeast of Kharkiv Oblast, from the village of Vesele to the city of Vovchansk.”

Russians seek ways to surrender due to counteroffensive, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Natalia Humeniuk, head of the press centre of Operational Command South. “Russian units in Kharkiv Oblast are looking for ways to reach out to Ukrainian units in order to negotiate a surrender, Operational Command South has reported.”

Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map. September 12, 2022. Source: ISW.

Belarusians stormed a strategically important height in the Kherson region, Dialog.ua claims. “Belarusian volunteers from the “Terror” battalion demonstrate military results in southern Ukraine no worse than Ukrainian defenders in the Kharkiv region. They managed to take the height in the Kherson region, nicknamed “McDonald’s”.”

Ukrainian flag raised in liberated Novovoznesenske in Kherson region, Ukrinform reports, citing the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade “Zakarpattia Legion”. “Soldiers from the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade installed the Ukrainian flag in the liberated village of Novovoznesenske in the Kherson region.”

Ukrainian defense forces launch more than 100 strikes on Russian positions in the south, Ukrinform reports, citing Operational Command South. “In the south, the Ukrainian defence forces launched more than 100 strikes on the positions of Russian invaders and the areas of concentration of enemy manpower and military equipment, twice attacked pontoon crossings in Kherson region, making their further use impossible.

It is emphasized that the Ukrainian defence forces keep under round-the-clock fire control bridges and crossings, preventing the invaders from replenishing their stocks of military equipment and ammunition.”

Ukraine’s Armed Forces liberate about 500 sq km in the south, Ukrinform reports. “We have advanced in various areas from four to several tens of kilometres. We have liberated areas of about 500 square kilometres, [Natalia Humeniuk, the head of the joint coordination press centre of the Defence Forces of the South of Ukraine, said].

We can claim that the settlements of the Kherson region – Visokopillia, Bilohirka, Novovoznesenske, Sukhyi Stavok and Myroliubivka have already been liberated today and are under the Ukrainian flag. However, shelling of these areas is still ongoing. While retreating, Russian forces mined part of these areas, so all local residents should be careful. Over the past two weeks, we have eliminated more than 1,800 invaders, more than 500 units of armoured vehicles, 122 tanks, two aircraft, two helicopters in the southern direction alone and about 10 cruise missiles,” Humeniuk informed.

As reported, being almost completely encircled in the south of Ukraine, the Russian troops are looking for an opportunity to lay down their arms and surrender.”

Captured soldier says Russian command fled Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast – Security Service of Ukraine, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing the press service of Security Service of Ukraine (SSU). “The 20-year-old grenade launcher says that the invaders, abandoned by their commanders to fend for themselves, were effectively “burned” by the heavy fire of Ukrainian defenders on the approach to Shevchenkove.”

According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours): 

  • Elements of the Russian forces withdrawn from Kharkiv Oblast over the last week were from the 1st Guards Tank Army (1 GTA), which is subordinate to the Western Military District (WEMD). 1 GTA suffered heavy casualties in the initial phase of the invasion and had not been fully reconstituted prior to the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkiv.
  • 1 GTA had been one of the most prestigious of Russia’s armies, allocated for the defence of Moscow, and intended to lead counter-attacks in the case of a war with NATO.
  • With 1 GTA and other WEMD formations severely degraded, Russia’s conventional force designed to counter NATO is severely weakened. It will likely take years for Russia to rebuild this capability.
  • In the face of Ukrainian advances, Russia has likely ordered the withdrawal of its troops from the entirety of occupied Kharkiv Oblast west of the Oskil River. Isolated pockets of resistance remain in this sector, but since Wednesday, Ukraine has recaptured territory at least twice the size of Greater London.
  • In the south, near Kherson, Russia is likely struggling to bring sufficient reserves forward across the Dnipro River to the front line. An improvised floating bridge Russia started over two weeks ago remains incomplete; Ukrainian long-range artillery is now probably hitting crossings of the Dnipro so frequently that Russia cannot carry out repairs to damaged road bridges.
  • The rapid Ukrainian successes have significant implications for Russia’s overall operational design. The majority of the force in Ukraine is highly likely being forced to prioritise emergency defensive actions. The already limited trust deployed troops have in Russia’s senior military leadership is likely to deteriorate further.

Losses of the Russian army 

As of Tuesday 13 September, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:

  • Personnel – more than 53300 (+350),
  • Tanks – 2175 (+7),
  • Armoured combat vehicles – 4662 (+22),
  • Artillery systems – 1279 (+10),
  • Multiple rocket launchers –MLRS – 311 (+0),
  • Air defence means – 165 (+3),
  • Aircraft – 244 (+1),
  • Helicopters – 213 (+0),
  • Automotive technology and fuel tanks – 3469 (+6),
  • Vessels/boats – 15 (+0),
  • UAV operational and tactical level –  904 (+1),
  • Special equipment – 117 (+0),
  • Mobile SRBM system – 4 (+0),
  • Cruise missiles – 233 (+17)

Russian enemy suffered the greatest losses (of the last day) in the Kharkiv and Donetsk directions.

The counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region in numbers, Forbes reports. “The successful counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv direction is a turning point in the war, suggest military experts interviewed by The Economist. Indeed, the scale and consequences are astounding. Forbes tried to digitize the Kharkiv operation.

According to a map released by the Russian Ministry of Defense, since September 6, the Russians have left an area of ​​almost 9,000 km2. km, which is more than 28% of the Kharkiv region. The General Staff is still more cautious in its estimates: […] the latest official figure at the time of publication is 3000 km2. This estimate does not include the territories liberated on September 11-12, and those that were abandoned by the Russian troops, but the capture of which has not yet been confirmed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. […]

During September 6–11, according to the General Staff, 2,850 invaders and 590 pieces of equipment were destroyed, the cost of which, according to Forbes, exceeds $670 million. Enemy losses amounted to 86 tanks and 158 armoured fighting vehicles, 106 artillery systems, 159 vehicles and 46 other vehicles.

Russian forces’ most expensive loss was the Moscow-1 electronic warfare complex ($57 million), destroyed in the Zaporizhzhia region. In the Kharkiv region, the invaders lost a Su-34 fighter-bomber ($36 million) and a Zoopark-1M counter-battery radar system ($25 million).

Not all the equipment lost by the Russians has been destroyed. According to the analytical project Oryx , from September 6 to 10, the Ukrainian military seized 129 pieces of equipment, which Forbes estimates at $104 million, including nine Msta-S and Msta-B howitzers worth over $43 million. In one week, Russia provided Ukraine with more military equipment than most allies have since the start of a full-scale war.

Humanitarian 

More than 800 settlements remain without electricity after enemy attacks, Ukrinform reports. “As of September 12, 817 settlements and 7,978 transformer substations, a total of about 667,600 consumers, remain without power supply due to damage caused by hostilities in Ukraine, the Energy Ministry wrote on its website.  

As reported, power was cut off completely in Kharkiv and Donetsk regions due to Russia’s mass attack on the territory of Ukraine on the evening of September 11.”

Nine more ships with grain leave Ukrainian ports, Ukrinform reports, citing the Ukrainian Infrastructure Ministry. “On September 12, 2022, as part of the ‘grain initiative’, nine vessels loaded with 163.8 thousand tonnes of agricultural crops left Odesa Port, Chornomorsk Port and Pivdennyi Port, the report states. Today Odesa Region’s ports are also planning to receive 13 more vessels and load them with Ukrainian grain. Six of them have already moored to berths: two at Odesa Port, one at Chornomorsk Port and three at Pivdennyi Port.

A total of 2.78 million tonnes of agricultural crops have been exported since the ‘grain initiative’ was launched. In general, 122 ships left Ukrainian ports to deliver agricultural crops to Asian, European and African countries.”

OHCHR recorded 14,248 civilian casualties in Ukraine as of September 12. 5,827 were killed (including 375 children) and 8,421 injured (including 647 children).

️️Environmental 

IAEA efforts should be focused on ZNPP de-occupation, demilitarization, and return to Ukrainian control, Ukrinform reports. “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine believes that all IAEA efforts must be directed toward achieving de-occupation, and demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, as well as ensuring that Ukraine regains control of the facility.

As reported, ZNPPP, Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, has remained captured by the Russian military since March 4. Since then, the invaders have been placing military equipment and ammunition on the plant’s premises, as well as shelling the surrounding area. On September 6, the IAEA released a report on its mission’s work at the ZNPP. The document has confirmed cases of Russia deploying military equipment on the plant’s premises, including in the engine rooms of its power units.

On September 9, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi called for the creation of a nuclear and physical security zone around the ZNPP. On September 12, Grossi said his proposal implies that no party attacks or shells the plant, adding that it does not involve broad demilitarization or movement of troops.”

IAEA: Second backup power line to ZNPP restored, Ukrinform reports. “The International Atomic Energy Agency reported that a second backup power line to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant had been restored, enabling safe reactor cooling.

A second backup power line to Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has been restored, enabling the operator to keep one line in reserve while the other provides the plant with the external electricity it needs for reactor cooling and other essential safety functions during the shutdown, reads the IAEA Director General statement released on Monday.

It is noted that a 750/330 kV line has now also been restored and it is being used to provide the plant with the power required for its safety functions, with the restored 330 kV line held in reserve. In another development significant for nuclear safety at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, a reactor unit that was shut down yesterday has now entered a cold shutdown state like the facility’s five other reactors, meaning it will require less power for cooling, the statement reads.”

One step closer to victory in energy war with the Kremlin: what EU countries agreed on, European Pravda reports. On September 9, the energy ministers of the EU countries called on the European Commission to introduce a price cap on gas against the backdrop of rapidly growing energy supply costs borne by consumers and enterprises. There is a consensus that a gas price cap is necessary, but the European Commission and EU countries need some time to work out and agree on a concrete solution.

The Kremlin’s ultimatum with a threat to completely cut off gas supplies to the EU, if the sanctions are not lifted, essentially moved the confrontation into a new “acute” phase. […] Average Russian fossil fuel prices have more than doubled since 2021. According to a new analytical report by CREA, in the first six months of the war (from February 24 to August 24), Russia received 158 billion euros in revenue from fossil fuel exports. […] Over the past six months, Gazprom made as much money from gas sales in the EU now as it did in the first half of 2021 while delivering less than a third of last year’s volumes. […]

In the spring, the EU’s tactic was to stock up gas in storage in advance to prepare for winter, which was successfully done – by the beginning of September, European gas storage had accumulated more gas than in the same period of 2021. Without introducing the hard-hitting energy sanctions in April-May, the European Union continued to buy Russian gas but was already preparing for the scenario of a complete shutdown of supplies in winter.

Despite the Kremlin’s bravado that “without Russian gas, Europe will freeze” and its belief in the invincibility of their gas pipelines, the reality is that with the full arsenal of energy sanctions in place, the Putin regime will be out of cash in a matter of weeks. In fact, Russia’s economy, and especially its energy sector, are more vulnerable to a full-scale “energy” war than the EU economy. […]

Last week, G7 governments agreed on a plan to implement this price cap on global markets. It provides for the establishment of a ban on insurance, financial, intermediary, and other services for Russian oil cargoes, the value of which exceeds the price limits for crude oil and oil products. […]

Of all vessels carrying Russian fossil fuels worldwide in July, 62% were owned by EU-registered shipping companies and 73% were insured in the UK and Norway, according to CREA’s analysis. Because of its dominant role in maritime logistics, Europe has all the leverages to impose a price cap on Russian oil exports, which could effectively cut off the flow of petrodollars to the Kremlin. This is what they fear the most.

Therefore, our key allies, the G7 and the EU must now limit the Kremlin’s financial income from the export of Russian oil to world markets. This is a key battle on the sanctions front against warmongering Russia, so we must demand decisiveness, consistency, and coherence from the EU. In implementing oil sanctions, the G7 and the EU must create strong enforcement mechanisms and regulations to prevent the free flow of Russian oil to other potential buyers, before UK and EU embargoes enter into force. It is necessary to eliminate all loopholes.”

Legal 

383 children were killed, 749 children injured, 7,552 deported by foe forces, and 231 reported missing – the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine reports as of September 13. 2,480 educational establishments are damaged as a result of shelling and bombings, 289 of them are destroyed fully. 33,323 crimes of aggression and war crimes and 15,463 crimes against national security were registered.

Personal data of pilots of the 14th Russian Air Force has been published by DIU. “The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine publishes the personal data of pilots of the 14th Air Force and Air Defense Forces (Ekaterinburg) who took part in military operations on the territory of Ukraine. We remind you that all war criminals will be exposed and prosecuted for crimes against the civilian population of Ukraine.”

Bodies of four tortured civilians were found in a liberated village in the Kharkiv region, Ukrinform reports. “Under the procedural leadership of the Chuhuiv district prosecutor’s office of the Kharkiv region, a pre-trial investigation has been launched into the fact of violation of the laws and customs of war, combined with intentional murder (Part 2 of Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine).

On September 11, law enforcement officers found four bodies with traces of torture. Three of them are buried on the territory of their homes, another one was buried on the territory of an asphalt plant opposite the railway station of the village of Zaliznychne, the report reads. According to the preliminary information, the victims were killed by the Russian military when they occupied the village.”

In response to the deportation of Ukrainians, Zelenskyy told the director of the International Organization for Migration that Russia needs to be pressured. Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing the press service of the president office. “A separate topic during the negotiations was the illegal mass deportation of Ukrainians to Russia, in particular women, children as well as our defenders, and the system of filtration camps organised by the occupiers. Zelenskyy stressed that deportation is a gross violation of international humanitarian law and a war crime.

He also called on the IOM director general to put maximum pressure on Russia to put an end to this crime.”

Support 

Ukraine calls for more Western arms after Russian setback, Reuters reports. “Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on the West to speed up deliveries of weapons systems as Ukrainian troops move to consolidate control over a large swath of northeastern territory seized back from Russia. […]

Washington and its allies have provided Ukraine with billions of dollars in weapons that Kyiv says have helped limit Russian gains. In a video address late on Monday, Zelenskyy said Ukraine and the West must “strengthen cooperation to defeat Russian terror”.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Ukrainian forces have made significant progress with Western support. What they have done is very methodically planned out and of course, it’s benefited from significant support from the United States and many other countries in terms of making sure that Ukraine has in its hands the equipment it needs to prosecute this counteroffensive, Blinken said during a news conference in Mexico City.

Washington announced its latest weapons programme for Ukraine last week, including ammunition for HIMARS anti-rocket systems, and has previously sent Ukraine NASAMS surface-to-air missile systems, which are capable of shooting down aircraft.”

The White House is asking Congress to allocate additional funding to support Ukraine, Ukraine Business News reports. “The US intends to consistently supply Ukraine with defensive support and other aid so that it can effectively resist Russian aggression, stated White House spokeswoman Karin Jean-Pierre at a meeting with journalists on September 12.

President Biden made it clear that we will continue to support Ukraine, which is defending its democracy from Russian aggression. Jean-Pierre expressed gratitude for the bipartisan support that has allowed Ukraine to receive unprecedented military, humanitarian and financial assistance. She added that the administration is asking Congress to approve additional funding to support Ukraine’s efforts.”

The US fears the energy crisis will weaken the EU’s support for Ukraine, Ukraine Business News reports. “Despite Russia’s attempt to weaponize energy and break the West’s resolve to support Ukraine, the US calls on Europe to remain united in maintaining sanctions against the Russian Federation. The US fears that support for sanctions pressure on Russia in Europe may decrease due to rising energy prices.

American intelligence representatives believe that the separation of Western countries in the face of Russian aggression is a key strategic priority for the president of the Russian Federation. The US is closely monitoring the situation in Europe. “We still see strong resolve and unity at the leadership level, despite Putin’s use of energy as a weapon. And the President of the United States is committed to maintaining that unity, resolve and strength,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told CNN.”

Ukraine received $18B in aid from international partners, Ukrinform reports, citing the Ukrainian Finance Ministry. “Since the Russian full-scale invasion started, the Ukrainian Finance Ministry has been actively working to raise international funds in order to overcome the consequences of the war. The total amount of concessional financing raised since February 24 is about $18 billion,” the report states. According to the ministry, the key donors are the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan, France and Italy.

Ukraine’s funding needs include not only direct budget support but also a financing for the reconstruction of thousands of the settlements liberated and the renovation of the roads, bridges, schools and utility systems destroyed.

In the next 18-36 months, in order to meet Ukraine’s urgent needs, it is necessary to raise about $105 billion to make preparations for the upcoming winter period, repair critical transport, and provide support for the next sowing campaign, social needs and demining efforts.”

New Developments 

  1. Zelenskyy: Negotiations with Russia are impossible until complete de-occupation of our territories, Ukrinform “No sanctions can be lifted. We cannot discuss anything with Russia until it gets out of here. It is possible after the war, we can talk about lifting some sanctions, reparations, payments from their side, and diplomacy. We can involve the leaders of any countries, any international institutions in such negotiations, but only after Russia vacates all our territories,” Zelensky told CNN in an interview.”
  2. Zelenskyy rejects negotiations with Russia, Medvedev responds with threats, Ukrainska Pravda “Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, said that Russia still demands “total surrender of Ukraine on its own terms”, commenting on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statement about the impossibility of negotiations with the Russian Federation until the war is over.”
  3. The special military operation’ continues and will continue until the goals that were originally set are achieved, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Russian radioMayak. “We do not currently see any negotiation prospects and, as before, we state the absence of any prerequisites for such negotiations [between Kyiv and Moscow – ed.], Dmitriy Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, said.”
  4. Mexico to present UN with peace proposal for Russia-Ukraine war, Reuters “Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Monday his government will present a proposal to the United Nations aimed at resolving Russia’s war against Ukraine.”
  5. Call by individual countries to dialogue with Russia breaks European unity – MFA Poland, Ukrinform reports, citing PAP. According to the Deputy Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland, Marcin Przydacz, Poland “believe that deterring Russia is in the interests of all of Europe, and those demanding dialogue with Russia are breaking European unity.”

Assessment 

  1. On the war. 

Map https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-12*

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of Monday 12 September:

(quote) “Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive is continuing to have significant impacts on Russian morale and military capabilities in southern Ukraine. Satellite imagery of known Russian positions in Kyselivka, 15km northwest of Kherson City, shows that all but four Russian vehicles have departed from previous forward positions, consistent with rumors that Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) troops have abandoned Kyselivka and moved back towards the Dnipro River. Kyselivka is an operationally significant location for Russian forces around Kherson City because it is the last major settlement along both the E58 highway and a railway line between current Ukrainian positions and Chornobaivka, the outermost part of Kherson City. The apparent withdrawal of Russian troops from this position may compromise the Russians’ ability to defend the northwestern outskirts of Kherson City and suggests that Russian troops in this area perceive an imminent threat to their positions. Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command, Natalya Humenyuk, stated on September 12 that Russian forces located along the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast are attempting to negotiate for surrender under the auspices of international law. Ukrainian operations in Kharkiv Oblast are unlikely to have had such a dramatic psychological effect on Russian troops this far south, and both the withdrawal of troops from forward positions in Kyselivka and reports of surrender negotiations are indicators that Ukrainian counteroffensives in the south are progressing in a significant way, even if visibility on this axis is limited by the shift in focus to Kharkiv.

The success of recent Ukrainian counteroffensive operations may be impacting the will or ability of the Russian military command to use newly formed volunteer units in Ukraine in a timely fashion. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian military command has suspended sending new, already-formed units to Ukraine due to recent Russian losses and widespread distrust of the Russian military command, factors which have caused a large number of volunteers to categorically refuse to participate in combat. This assessment is still unconfirmed, but low morale due to Ukrainian counteroffensive success may prove devastating to the Kremlin’s already-poor ability to generate meaningful combat capability. The deployment of these newly formed units to reinforce defensive lines against Ukrainian counteroffensives would be an operationally-sound decision on the part of Russian military leadership; and the delay or potential suspension of these deployments will afford Ukrainian troops time to consolidate and then resume the offensive, should they choose to do so, without having to face newly arrived and fresh (albeit undertrained and understrength) units.

Eastern Ukraine: (Vovchansk-Kupiansk-Izium-Lyman Line)

Ukrainian forces continued to consolidate gains in eastern Kharkiv Oblast on September 12. The Kharkiv Oblast detachment of Ukrainian Azov Regiment Special Forces stated that Ukrainian troops have taken control of the entire northeastern part of Kharkiv Oblast along the Vesele-Vovchansk line. Ukrainian sources confirmed that Ukrainian troops have retaken Dvorchina (100km east of Kharkiv City) and Ternova (30km northeast of Kharkiv City), demonstrating the range of the Ukrainian advance in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast. Ukraine’s Airborne Assault Command also claimed that Ukrainian paratroopers took control of Bohorodychne, a small settlement in northwestern Donetsk Oblast directly along the southeastern Kharkiv Oblast border. Geolocated imagery additionally shows that Ukrainian troops have taken full control of Sviatohirsk, 3km due east of Bohorodychne.

Russian sources claimed that the front has largely stabilized at the Oskil River, which runs just west of the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border. Russian milbloggers reported that Ukrainian and Russian forces are fighting around Lyman, but that Lyman remains under the control of Russian and proxy forces. Some Russian sources also voiced concerns that Ukrainian troops are trying to cross the Siverskyi Donets River around Zakitne (about 15km southeast of Lyman) to take back Yampil. Russian sources are seemingly focused on the Lyman-Yampil line as the next potential target for Ukrainian advances.

Russian forces are failing to reinforce the new frontline following Ukrainian gains in eastern Kharkiv Oblast and are actively fleeing the area or redeploying to other axes. Ukrainian sources claimed that all Russian forces have left Svatove, Luhansk Oblast (about 45km east of current Ukrainian positions along the Oskil River), and that only militia elements of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR)—possibly locals—remain in Svatove. Social media footage shows lines of cars stretching for kilometers near Schastia and Stanysia Luhanska, which are both along the border of long-held LNR territory and close to the Russian border. Russian forces and pro-Russian collaborators are likely experiencing the psychological pressure of rapid Ukrainian gains and seek to remove themselves from settlements near the new frontline that they perceive as vulnerable to Ukrainian advances. Certain proxy forces are also reportedly already redeploying from Kharkiv Oblast to southwestern Donetsk Oblast, indicating that the Russian command is not prioritizing reinforcing vulnerable positions east of the Oskil River.

Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)

Ukrainian military officials emphasized on September 12 that Ukrainian troops are making tangible gains in Kherson Oblast. Ukraine’s Kakhovka Operational Group announced that Ukrainian forces have penetrated the front line at depths between 4 and 12km in unspecified areas, amounting to over 500 square kilometers of liberated territory. The Kakhovka Group stated that Ukrainian troops have liberated 13 settlements, including Vysokopillya, Novovoznesenske, Bilohirka, Sukhyi Stavok, and Myrolubivka. Ukrainian military officials also stated that Ukrainian troops are continuing an operational interdiction campaign and regularly striking Russian military, logistical, and transportation assets in southern Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade has lost more than 85% of its personnel and is now refusing to return to combat, suggesting that even brigade-level elements have suffered substantial losses as a result of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Social media footage taken by residents of Kherson Oblast provides further visual evidence for Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets and positions in Kherson Oblast. Footage posted on September 12 shows smoke near the Antonivskyi Bridge in Kherson City following a Ukrainian strike, and residents reported the sound of explosions around Kherson City. Ukrainian sources additionally reported that Ukrainian troops successfully destroyed two Russian pontoon bridges near Darivka (15km northeast of Kherson City) and Nova Kakhovka (55km east of Kherson City), thus temporarily rendering passage across the Inhulets and Dnipro Rivers impossible in these areas.

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources discussed ground manoeuvres along the Kherson-Mykolaiv frontline on September 12. Russian and Ukrainian sources discussed Russian indirect fire attacks on Ukrainian positions in northern and western Kherson Oblast, confirming that Ukrainian troops are holding recently recaptured positions near the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and near the Sukhyi Stavok pocket in western Kherson Oblast. 

Key Takeaways

  • Ukrainian forces are continuing to make impactful gains in Kherson Oblast and are steadily degrading the morale and combat capabilities of Russian forces in this area.
  • The Russian military command may be suspending the deployment of newly formed units to Ukraine due to recent Russian losses and overall degraded morale.
  • Russian forces are failing to reinforce the new frontline following Ukrainian gains in eastern Kharkiv Oblast and are actively fleeing the area or redeploying to other axes.
  • Ukrainian forces continued targeting Russian military assets and positions in Kherson Oblast, likely steadily degrading them.
  • The Ukrainian recapture of Izium has likely degraded Russian forces’ ability to conduct artillery strikes along the Izium-Sloviansk highway.
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced the restoration of the second reserve power transmission line to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

Ukraine’s sweeping counteroffensive is damaging Russian administrative capabilities and driving Russian departures from occupied parts of Ukraine far behind the line of contact.

After a series of defeats by the Ukrainian Defense Forces, the command of the western group of the Soviet Union changed again, the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) reports. “The leadership of the western group of the Soviet Union was removed from command. The reason for this decision is the devastating defeats and defeats received as a result of the offensive of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

To restore the group’s “management stability”, it will be headed by the commander of the “Center” troop group, Lieutenant General Oleksandr Lapin, together with his staff. At the moment, the operational staff of the central military unit has moved from Luhansk to the command post of the western group.

Today, the personnel decision regarding the further service of Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov is under consideration. He was appointed to the position of commander of the Western Armed Forces on August 26, 2022, replacing Lieutenant General Sychevy (he was in the position for three weeks).”

Ukraine’s Sudden Gains Prompt New Questions for Commanders, The New York Times reports. “Ukraine’s military is gauging how far its forces can press the attack, at risk of their ability to hold the new lines. Russian leaders are trying to regroup after a dramatic, demoralizing rout. fter Ukraine’s stunning offensive in its northeast drove Russian forces into a chaotic retreat and reshaped the battlefield by hundreds of miles, Ukrainian leaders on Monday were weighing critical gambles that could determine the near-term course of the war.

Stretching the Ukrainian forces — a military still much smaller and far less equipped than its Russian foe — too far could leave the troops vulnerable to attack. Moving too slow, or in the wrong place, could leave an opportunity squandered. And waiting too long could allow the front lines to freeze as winter sets in.

By expelling Russian troops from a large slice of strategic territory in the northeastern Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces are now positioned to make a move on the Donbas, the industrialized eastern territory that Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, has made central to his war aims. […] Russia now has control of nearly 90 percent of the Donbas, where its military shifted much of its focus after a staggering defeat around the capital, Kyiv, in the spring. If Ukraine were to retake even a part of the region, it would be an embarrassing blow to the Kremlin. […]

The military’s assertions could not be independently verified, but Western analysts, including at the Pentagon, said that the Ukrainians were overall making gains as quickly as Russian forces were falling back. But Ukraine faces potentially serious pitfalls if it pushes any further.

Any future advances would mean that Ukrainian forces would further extend their supply lines, straining convoys of fuel, ammunition and reinforcements as they have to move farther away from their established logistics hubs. That could leave Ukrainian units vulnerable, said John Blaxland, a professor of security and intelligence studies at the Australian National University in Canberra. Although he added that a Russian counterattack was “not necessarily going to happen,” in part because the morale of Moscow’s troops appears to be foundering.

Russian officials face their own hard questions, especially with a growing backlash to their “special military operation” from pro-war voices at home. Russia’s military leaders, analysts say, will have to take a clear-eyed look at the reality of their forces’ current conditions — depleted and demoralized in some areas — to determine how much of Moscow’s goals they can accomplish in the coming months if any. They will also have to contend with the rigid structure of Russia’s military and, ultimately, the decisions of Mr. Putin, who has resisted mobilizing a national draft and sought to preserve a sense of normalcy inside Russia.

The current Ukrainian offensive “was a rapid breakthrough designed to take advantage of favourable positions and thinly manned Russian defences,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at C.N.A., a research institute in Arlington, Va. […]  Ukraine now has options to exploit momentum in the Donbas, Mr. Kofman said. Russian forces, he added, will be on the defensive for the foreseeable future. […]

The Russian pullout from the Kharkiv region and Izium, a railway hub, has left the Ukrainians with the “ability to shift quickly” elsewhere in the country, Mr. Kofman said. He also noted Ukraine’s troops have an advantage in manpower and the ability to conduct “operations along more than one axis,” referring to a separate offensive taking place in Ukraine’s south, near the port city of Kherson.

Ukraine’s ability to muster troops to attack in two directions was a significant feat, analysts said. Both Ukraine and Russia have suffered tens of thousands of casualties, according to Western intelligence estimates, and both countries rely on a medley of different units to bolster their numbers on the front.

Along Ukraine’s newly established front in the Kharkiv region, Ukrainian troops not only have to prepare for future advances but also fortify their own gains. Securing territory is a resource-intensive challenge in its own right. In recaptured towns and villages, Ukrainian units have to sweep for explosives, including inside abandoned Russian equipment, and look for potential saboteurs. Once those tasks are complete, emergency services such as the police and bomb disposal crews can arrive.

Russian troops appear to have left a large amount of equipment behind, as they did during their hasty retreat from Kyiv. One soldier familiar with the battle said that one unit that took part in the offensive around Kharkiv is already known to have captured so much Russian equipment, including tanks and ammunition, that other units are looking to use it to fill their own supplies. The captured Russian hardware is hugely useful to Ukraine. Every functional Russian vehicle seized in the recent offensive will likely find its way to the front in the matter of weeks, if not days, replacing Ukraine’s worn-down Soviet-era matériel.

“Russian forces abandoned a good deal of equipment,” Mr. Kofman said, adding that “problems with manpower and force availability” have only compounded Russian woes.

But Ukraine’s window of opportunity to take advantage of Russia’s degraded morale and pell-mell retreat is quickly closing. Every day that passes, Russian forces have time to dig in and gather reinforcements, drawing new defensive lines and preparing to return to the monthslong status quo of a grinding artillery battle. Pro-Russian social media accounts have shown images of Russian and pro-Kremlin Chechen forces mustering for deployment in Ukraine or headed to the front.

Russia retains an advantage in weapons and supplies, and Mr. Putin has over the course of the war shown no sign of relenting his military’s assault. Last week he insisted Russia had not lost anything, and will not lose anything, dismissing his country’s casualties to that point. […]

Terrain like rivers and forests is further hampering Ukrainian advances. Near Izium, Russian forces have retreated across the Oskil River, which runs north to south and connects to the Siversky Donets River, which flows to the southeast into the Donbas. Both rivers have been used by Russian forces as natural defensive lines, ensuring that Ukrainian forces could be easily targeted as they attempt to cross over a limited number of bridges. […]

With Russia’s Kharkiv defenses demolished and their troops redeploying elsewhere, the last remaining Russian front lines — those in the Donbas and Ukraine’s south — are likely where the remainder of intense ground fighting will play out, analysts said.”

Russian parliament insists mobilisation is not necessary, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing RIA Novosti. “Andrey Klimov, Head of the Russian Federation Council’s Commission for the Protection of State Sovereignty, said that there was no need for military mobilisation in Russia against the backdrop of Russia’s losses and defeats in Ukraine. I see no signs of such a need [for mobilisation], or for the introduction of martial law.”

Russian state media grapples with Kharkiv defeats, Reuters reports. “Commentators on Russian state television have been forced to go off script by Ukrainian forces’ swift advance in the country’s Kharkiv region and Moscow’s rapid retreat. Since the beginning of what Russia calls its “special military operation”, belligerent guests on state television talk shows typically have tried to outdo each other in backing President Vladimir Putin and denouncing Ukraine and its allies. But in the wake of Kyiv’s lightning counteroffensive, the mood was more subdued and the narrative turned to how allegedly Ukrainian forces overwhelmingly outnumbered the Russians in the northeast.

The Rossiya-24 news channel on Monday interviewed Vitaly Ganchev, a Russian-appointed official in the Kharkiv region, who said that Russian troops in the province had been outnumbered “eight times over.” He also said, without providing evidence, that Ukrainian forces had been bolstered by “Western mercenaries”.

A most difficult week on the front, presenter Dmitry Kiselyov said at the opening of his prime time Sunday night program. Under a studio backdrop reading “Regrouping”, Kiselyov said that Russian forces had abandoned previously liberated settlements” under pressure from “superior enemy forces.

In a rare show of dissent, Boris Nadezhdin, a former liberal politician and regular talk show guest said on the Gazprom-owned NTV channel, that Putin had been misled by advisers into thinking that Ukraine would quickly surrender, and urged immediate peace talks to end the conflict.

Other hosts went for a positive spin. […] Several guests also brought up Putin’s remarks from July that Russia “had not yet started anything in earnest”, saying Moscow would now intensify military action. Newspaper coverage of the Russian withdrawal was framed by the defence ministry’s talk of a “tactical redeployment” of its troops, though some papers cited military experts suggesting that not everything had gone to plan.”

  1. Consequences and what to do? 

Inflation, contraction to plague German economy in 2023, Ifo says, Reuters reports. “Germany’s economy will contract next year as a dramatic rise in energy costs due to the war in Ukraine extinguishes the chances of recovery after pandemic-related lockdowns, the Ifo institute said on Monday in a U-turn from its forecast three months prior.

The institute reversed its June forecast of 3.7% growth for 2023 and now predicts that Europe’s largest economy will contract by 0.3%. At the same time, it bumped up its forecast for 2023 inflation by 6 percentage points to 9.3%. read more

The cuts in gas supplies from Russia over the summer and the drastic price increases they triggered are wreaking havoc on the economic recovery following the coronavirus, said Timo Wollmershaeuser, head of Ifo’s economic forecasts. The first quarter of 2023 will be particularly rough for consumers as energy suppliers adjust their prices in response to high procurement costs, driving inflation to around 11%, said the institute.”

ECB governors see a rising risk of the rate hitting 2% to curb inflation, Reuters reports. “European Central Bank policymakers see a rising risk that they will have to raise their key interest rate to 2% or more to curb record-high inflation in the eurozone despite a likely recession, sources told Reuters.

With inflation hitting 9.1% in August and seen above the ECB’s 2% target for two years to come, the central bank has been raising its interest rates at record speed and urging governments to help bring down energy bills that have ballooned since Russia invaded Ukraine.”

Hans Petter Midttun: The psychological impact of the Ukrainian offensives is spreading beyond the fleeing Russian forces. Putin seems to be losing control over what is said on Russian state television. They are not only struggling to come up with a narrative to fit the recent setbacks, but more are also stepping forward to criticise Putin.

“Former member of the Duma, Boris Nadezhdin, among others, was remarkably critical. He did not go so far as to point an accusing finger at President Putin himself but his advisers. “People who convinced President Putin that the special operation would be swift and effective, that the civilian population would be kept out of harm’s way, that we would invade with the National Guard and the Kadyrovites and put things in order. Those people lied to us. […] Nadezhdin believes it is “absolutely impossible” to defeat Ukraine using the means and “colonial war methods” with which Russia is now trying to win the war. With contract soldiers and mercenaries, and without mobilization. There is a strong army against the Russian forces, supported economically and technologically by the most powerful countries.”

He did, however, not go as far as a group of Russian officials who last week appealed to the country’s State Duma to remove President Vladimir Putin from power on the charge of high treason. In a tweet published on Wednesday by Nikita Yurefev, a municipal deputy for Smolninskoe in St. Petersburg, the official wrote that the Council of the Smolninskoye Municipal District “sent a proposal to the State Duma demanding to remove Putin from office based on the charges of high treason.

The treason charge appears to be directly related to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which in Russia is still referred to as a “special military operation” by the Kremlin and its propaganda machine. “His decision to start the Special Military Operation led to 1) deaths of the Russian servicemen, 2) problems in the Russian economy, 3) the expansion of NATO (the border with NATO has doubled!,” a translation of Yurefev’s tweet read.”

There have also been recent claims of discord between president Putin and his generals. According to one report, “Putin and his generals have resorted to pointing the finger of blame at each other, as tensions between the Russian leader and his military high command explode. The Telegram channel, General SVR, reported in a recent meeting called by a furious Putin, one of his generals could no longer contain his frustrations and told the Russian president where he could go”.

Even the Chechen leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has criticised the Russian army’s performance. “In an 11-minute-long voice message posted to the Telegram messaging app on Saturday, he conceded the campaign was not going to plan. If today or tomorrow changes are not made in the conduct of the special military operation, I will be forced to go to the country’s leadership to explain to them the situation on the ground, Kadyrov, the Kremlin-appointed leader of Chechnya, said.”

They are joining the choir of critical Russian milbloggers who for weeks has openly criticized the leadership of the Russian Armed Forces. While the president is not directly mentioned, President Putin is still its Supreme Commander.

While this will most likely not have any immediate impact on President Putin’s position or his decision to wage war on Ukraine, it is still a sign of a president under increasing pressure after yet another military disaster. In March already, after the failure to capture Kyiv and having suffered huge losses, Professor Mark Galeotti assessed that “a circular firing squad is forming in the Kremlin, with everyone pointing their guns at each other: Vladimir Putin’s regime looks under serious threat for the first time since he came to power. The war in Ukraine has turned into a disaster and everyone is looking for other people to blame. Anyone can be denounced as a warmonger or a traitor, or even both.”

Over time, when the heads of FSB, the leadership of the Russian Armed Forces and the economic elite join forces in frustration, we might see a change in the Russian Federation. It is very hard to imagine President Putin stepping back and giving up Ukraine. A fall from a window on the sixth floor seems by far more likely.

In the short term, the military situation will trigger a change in strategy. To continue doing the same and expecting different results are insanity. Russia will most likely try to change the military balance. In my opinion. three options are available to Putin.

Firstly, the balance might shift if the Belarussian Armed Forces were to enter the war. President Lukashenko has probably been under extreme pressure to engage his armed forces for months already. This will, however, not go down well with either the population or the armed forces. A weakened Russia is not least, very much in the interest of Belarus as it is little by little being forced to integrate into the Russian Federation.

Secondly, Russian mobilisation is an obvious alternative. President Putin has so far avoided this option as this will signal that the so-called “special military operation” is a failure and that Russia is waging war against its neighbour. But even if he changed his mind, Russia might struggle to find the equipment it needs to generate new, effective fighting formations. According to the analytical project Oryx, the Ukrainian military seized 129 pieces of equipment during the last week only. These are conservative estimates as the numbers are based on verified captures. The numbers are bound to be much higher as multiple reports indicate that the Russian forces fled in disorder.

Thirdly, the use of tactical nuclear arms is an option. That will, however, make no sense as it fundamentally breaks with the “logic of war”: To achieve a better peace. The territories they hope to capture will be left unusable. Furthermore, the employment of nuclear arms would forever destroy any hope for cooperation with the West. Additionally, the present situation does not trigger a nuclear response based on its doctrine.

The lack of a Western red line is, however, a problem. Having limited its support to Ukraine to non-military means only, NATO has in a sense stepped away from conventional military deterrence. Its decision to not become militarily involved in 2014 already – and having pursued a policy of non-escalation since – has an impact on its nuclear deterrence posture. The latter is weakened by NATO’s unwillingness to demonstrate military strength and engage in humanitarian intervention.

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