Russo Ukrainian War. Day 192: EU to provide $6 billion in aid to Ukraine

 

Daily review

Article by: Zarina Zabrisky

Russia continues the disinformation operation on the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Ukrainian officials reported positional battles in unspecified areas of Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian forces are continuing to strike Russian ground lines of communications in Kherson Oblast. Russian forces conducted ground attacks in the Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces continue sustaining significant losses in southern Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s military. Russia started conducting air reconnaissance in the regions of Ukraine bordering Belarus. Ukrzaliznytsia transported 42% more grain in August in comparison to July. ️Zaporizhzhia NPP launches the 5th power unit after an emergency shutdown. Ukraine imposed sanctions against Putin’s daughters. EU to provide $6 billion in aid to Ukraine. A majority of Russians reportedly still support the Russian war in Ukraine. 

The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, August 24, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below. 

Situation in Ukraine. September 2, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Situation in Ukraine. September 2, 2022. Source: ISW.

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The one-hundred-ninety-second (192) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.
russian enemy continues to focus its efforts on establishing full control over the territory of Donetsk oblast, maintaining the captured districts of Kherson, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv oblasts. Over the past day, the enemy launched 6 missiles and more than 20 airstrikes on military and civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine. In particular, the settlements of Poltavka, Pryshyb, Peremoha, Khreshchenivka, Osokorivka and Biloghirya were affected.
With the onset of dusk, the enemy became more active in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Novopavlivka, and Zaporizhzhia directions. Defense forces successfully repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Bakhmutske, Kodema, Zaytseve, Avdiivka, Maryinka and Vremivka settlements. In particular, the destruction of the enemy’s manpower in the Zaporizhzhia direction has been confirmed. According to intelligence, a convoy of enemy trucks, one of which was filled with the bodies of the dead, was heading towards Berdyansk, where the crematorium was deployed.
In the Volyn and Polissya directions, the situation remains without significant changes.
In the Siversky direction, the enemy shelled the areas of Senkivka, Chernihiv oblast, Myropilske, Porozok, Sumy oblast.
In the Slobozhansky direction, the situation has not undergone significant changes. Units of the Defense Forces hold their positions and prevent the enemy from advancing deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Kharkiv Battle Map. September 2, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Kharkiv Battle Map. September 2, 2022. Source: ISW.

In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy shelled the areas of the settlements of Zolochiv, Velyki Prohody, Ruska Lozova, Ruski Tyshky, Cherkaski Tyshky, Pryshyb.
Donetsk Battle Map. September 2, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Donetsk Battle Map. September 2, 2022. Source: ISW.

In the Sloviansk direction, the settlements of Velyka Komyshuvakha, Karnaukhivka, Virnopillia were subjected to artillery shelling by the occupiers. The enemy did not conduct active offensive actions.
In the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy shelled the areas of the settlements of Raihorodok, Siversk, and Spirne.
In the Bakhmut direction, mortars, tanks, barrel and jet artillery shelled the areas of the settlements of Soledar, Bakhmut, and Kodema.
In the Avdiyivka direction, the settlements of Avdiyivka, Vodyane, and Vesele were shelled by tanks, mortars, and barrel artillery.
enemy did not conduct active offensive operations in the Novopavlivsky direction, but shelled the areas of Maryinka, Velyka Novosilka, Neskuchne, Vuhledar, and Pavlivka settlements.
In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy shelled objects in the areas of settlements of Novosilka, Zaliznychne, Hulyaipole, Chervone, Shcherbaky, and Biloghirya.
Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map. September 2, 2022. Source: ISW. ~

Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map. September 2, 2022. Source: ISW.

In the South Buh direction, the enemy shelled the areas of Lozove, Andriivka, Olhyne, Zeleny Hay, and Stepova Dolyna settlements.
The defense forces successfully repelled the enemy’s offensive in the areas of the settlements of Visokopilla and Potemkine.
During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine carried out more than 40 sorties to support the actions of ground groups, during which several enemy control points and a warehouse with ammunition were destroyed. The Bayraktar TB-2 unmanned aerial vehicle launched a missile strike that detonated the ammunition and destroyed 2 units of the enemy’s armored vehicles along with their crews.
Missile forces and artillery of Ukrainian military groups continue to carry out tasks of counter-battery combat, disruption of the enemy’s control system and logistical support. So, more than 10 concentrations of enemy manpower were hit, including 3 platoon strongholds. 3 anti-aircraft missile complexes and several units of armoured vehicles of the occupiers were destroyed.
russian aggressor feels the indomitable spirit of our people and the thirst for the liberation of Ukrainian lands. This is especially noticeable in the southern regions, where russian occupiers are intensifying filtering measures, trying to weaken the patriotic feelings of the population of the temporarily occupied areas.

Military Updates 

Shelling by Russian troops. Icelandic database analyst. ~

Shelling by Russian troops. Icelandic database analyst.

Russian forces continue sustaining significant losses in southern Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s military. 

Russia started conducting air reconnaissance in the regions of Ukraine bordering Belarus. Deployment of UAV units of the RF Armed Forces was discovered in Brest, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Regional Updates

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1565857102928683008

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1565738360488050689

According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours): 

  • Since 29 August 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been conducting renewed offensive operations in the south of Ukraine. One element of this offensive is an ongoing advance on a broad front west of the Dnipro River, focusing on three axes within Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast.

 

  • The operation has limited immediate objectives, but Ukraine’s forces have likely achieved a degree of tactical surprise; exploiting poor logistics, administration and leadership in the Russian armed forces.

 

  • With fighting also continuing in the Donbas and Kharkiv sectors, a key decision for Russian commanders in coming days will be where to commit any operational reserve force they can generate.

Losses of the Russian army 

As of Sunday 24 August, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:

️️Environmental 

Ukrzaliznytsia transported 42% more grain in August in comparison to July due to the end of Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports. Overall, the company increased freight transportation by 5% in August compared to July.

️Zaporizhzhia NPP launches the 5th power unit after an emergency shutdown, said Energoatom. The power unit was turned off as a result of another mortar attack by the Russian occupation forces. Currently, the station has two power units that produce electricity. No information on the operation of equipment and security systems is available.

What’s the worst that can happen at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant? Four scenarios

The vessel Lady Zehma blocked the Bosphorus on route from Ukraine to Turkey. The ship ran aground due to a faulty rudder. According to the Turkish Coast Guard General Directorate, the 173-meter vessel anchored in Bebek Bay. Traffic along the Bosphorus Strait has been suspended. Lady Zehma is one of six ships with agricultural products that left Ukrainian ports on August 30.

Humanitarian

Sweden to buy 40,000 tons of grain from Ukraine for starving countries – Swedish government. Grain will be purchased as part of a package of assistance to Ukraine. The purchase and transportation of Ukrainian wheat is carried out through the UN Food Program and delivered to countries with the highest hunger risk such as Ethiopia, Yemen and Afghanistan.

Legal 

Ukraine imposed sanctions against Putin’s daughters. The government has expanded the sanctions list against Russia to include Vladimir Putin’s daughters Katerina Tikhonova and Maria Vorontsova. In total, the new sanctions affected 99 individuals and 178 legal entities, including officials of the national banks of Russia and Belarus, the Tsargrad group of companies and enterprises of the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation.

How Ukraine is preparing a Tribunal for Putin

Support 

Denmark to provide winter gear for Ukraine’s military. 

Finland prepares the 8th batch of military aid for Ukraine. The Finnish Defense Ministry announced the aid package worth $8.2 million but did not disclose the content, delivery time or location. Reuters reported earlier that this latest donation will bring the total value of Finland’s aid to Ukraine to $92.2 million since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Russian “KAMAZ” left without engines. Chinese company Weichai Power Co. Ltd has suspended its deliveries. The PRC authorities warned the corporation against cooperation with the sanctioned company of the Russian Federation, the Russian media write.

G7 countries to set a price ceiling for Russian oil. The decision to limit prices for oil purchases from the Russian Federation is planned to be made on December 5. This will help reduce the Kremlin’s export earnings, but for the solution to be as effective as possible, the support of European countries, as well as states that buy Russian oil in large volumes, such as India, will be required. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen believes that the establishment of a price ceiling for Russian oil will deal a powerful blow to the finances of the Russian Federation, as well as reduce inflation in the United States.

New Developments 

Volodymyr Zelenskyy canceled a number of decrees on the formation of a Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group for the Peaceful Settlement of the Situation in Donbas.

Mykhailo Podoliak stressed again that Russian troops must leave Ukraine in order for negotiations to start. “Russia must leave the entire territory of Ukraine. That is, the war can only end if the Russian army goes beyond the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine, including Crimea and Donbas.”

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz considers it necessary to continue negotiations with Putin. “I met with the Russian president in Moscow at a long table. I spoke with him on the phone many times. And I say clearly that I will continue to do so,” Scholz said. He also does not believe that Germany should force the rejection of Russian gas to its own detriment.

French President Emmanuel Macron called for continued dialogue with Russia. He said that France should “assume that we can always continue to talk to everyone,” “especially those with whom we disagree.” “Who wants Turkey to be the only power in the world that continues to negotiate with Russia?” Macron asked.

Kazakhstan is heading towards distancing itself from Russia, said President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev/ In circulation — a new economic course, de-Russification, judicial reform, and amnesty for participants in the January events under the motto “We need the unity of the country.” In addition, political reform was announced: early presidential elections, limiting the presidency to one 7-year term, simplifying the registration of political parties.

Assessment 

  1. On the war. 

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of Saturday 23 August, 2022:

September 2 FIRMS Map. [Source- NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System over northern Kherson, September 2 and Esri, Maxar, Earthstar Geographics, and the GIS User Community] ~

September 2 FIRMS Map. [Source- NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System over northern Kherson, September 2 and Esri, Maxar, Earthstar Geographics, and the GIS User Community]

Russian independent polling organization Levada posted survey results on September 1 indicating that while the majority of Russians still support military operations in Ukraine, public support for the war may be gradually declining. Levada stated that the overall support for Russian forces in Ukraine has not changed significantly over the summer, with 76% of the survey’s respondents in favor of the action of Russian forces in Ukraine (46% strongly supporting and 30% generally supporting).[1] Levada also noted that 48% of respondents believe that it is necessary for Russian operations in Ukraine to continue.[2] The polls showed that 44% of respondents were in favor of peace negotiations and that a majority of Russia’s younger segments of the population (18-39-year-olds) favor negotiations.[3] In March of 2022, Levada found that 53% of respondents strongly support Russian military actions in Ukraine but that the percentage of respondents in this category declined to 46% by August.[4] This is a minor deterioration and will not fundamentally impair the Kremlin’s ability to conduct the war. However, declining support and war weariness will likely increasingly impede Russian recruitment and force generation efforts.

Russian and proxy officials are solidifying their narratives surrounding the Ukrainian counteroffensive to amplify false claims that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast is detrimental to Ukraine’s continued existence. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed on September 2 that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky planned the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast solely to create an illusion among “Western curators” that Ukrainian forces can conduct an effective counteroffensive.[5] Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Deputy Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselyov claimed that Ukrainian forces’ engagement in the counteroffensive was (referring to the offensive in past tense) “collective suicide” and suffered high casualties.[6] Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed on September 1 that internal Ukrainian divisions will soon force the military conflict to end.[7] Russian milbloggers increased their amplification of these narratives on September 1-2 as the information space around the success and tempo of the Ukrainian counteroffensive remained murky.[8] Russian sources will likely continue propagating these false information narratives to exploit Ukrainian operational silence. As ISW has previously noted, complex counteroffensives cannot be resolved overnight or in a matter of days, and the Russian presentation of an immediate Ukrainian failure due to a lack of constant Ukrainian claims of territorial gains is a deliberate obfuscation of reality.[9] 

Key Takeaways

  • Independent polling showed that a majority of Russians still support the Russian war in Ukraine.
  • Russian and proxy officials are solidifying their narratives surrounding the Ukrainian counteroffensive to claim it will debilitate the Ukrainian military.
  • Ukrainian officials reported that positional battles are underway in unspecified areas of Kherson Oblast and that Ukrainian forces are continuing to strike Russian ground lines of communications (GLOCs), logistics nodes, and reinforcement efforts throughout southern and central Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian forces conducted ground attacks south and northeast of Bakhmut and along the western and northern outskirts of Donetsk City.
  • Russian forces continued targeting Ukrainian rear areas along GLOCs and may be reinforcing the Southern Axis by reallocating equipment from Russian rear areas in Donbas and Crimea.
  • Ukrainian sources claim that Russia can pull an additional 300,000-350,000 military personnel from support units in Russia, Syria, Armenia, Tajikistan, Nagorno Karabakh, and Kazakhstan. These figures do not accurately represent the fact that support units placed into combat roles will not generate substantial combat power and are necessary for supporting combat, training, and other operations. 

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