Russo-Ukrainian War. Day 189: Mikhail Gorbachev, former Soviet president, dies at 91

A map of the approximate situation on the ground in Ukraine as of 00:00 UTC 31/08/22. pic.twitter.com/lkcg33Kwau

— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) August 31, 2022

The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, August 26, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below. 

 

“[Russian forces continue to focus its efforts on establishing full control over the territory of the Donetsk oblast, maintaining the temporarily captured districts of the Kherson oblast, part of the Kharkiv oblast, Zaporizhzhia oblast, and Mykolaiv oblast.]

[Strengthens the grouping of troops in the Donetsk direction. The movement of units of the 3rd Army Corps to the temporarily occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv oblasts continues.]

[Russian occupiers continue to carry out air and missile attacks on civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine.]

[In the Volyn and Polissya directions, the situation remains without significant changes.]

[In the Siverskyi direction, Russian forces yesterday carried out artillery fire on the areas of the settlements of Hremyach of Chernihiv oblast and Novovasylivka, Bachivsk, Starykove, Pisky and Myropilske of Sumy oblast.] Russian forces carried out mortar and artillery shelling in the areas of the settlements of Hai in the Chernihiv oblast and Dmytrivka and Kindrativka in the Sumy oblast.

[In the Slobozhansky direction, Russian forces continue to conduct hostilities to hold previously occupied lines.]

• In the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces fired from artillery and MLRS in the areas of the settlements of Duvanka, Klynove, Sosnivka, Dementiivka, Ruska Lozova, Ruski and Cherkaski Tyshky, Velyki Prohody, Tsirkuny, Petrivka, Stary Saltiv, Peremoha, Shestakove, Bayrak, Nortsivka and Shevelivka. [Yesteday, Russian forces shelled the Dolyna, Adamivka, Kharkiv, Khrestyshcha, Bayrak, Oleksandrivka, Mazanivka, Udy, Borshcheva, Velika Komyshuvaha, Svitlychne, Kostyantynivka, and Ruska Lozova districts with mortars, artillery and MLRS. Used aviation for a strike near Husarivka.]
• In the Sloviansk direction, enemy units continued shelling from artillery and MLRS near Dolyna, Krasnopilla, Bohorodychne, and Virnopilla. Enemy aircraft struck near Virnopilla. [Yesterday, enemy units continued shelling from barrel artillery and MLRS in the vicinity of Pryshyb, Husarivka, and Krasnopilla.]
  • [Yesterday, the occupiers tried to advance in the direction of Shnurky, were hit by fire and retreated. Losses are being verified.]

Russia destroys evacuation base of @UkraineRedCross in Sloviansk

The strike destroyed the building, damaged 3 cars. Red Cross since 18 April evacuated locals, gave humanist. aid.
"This place was marked everywhere as Red Cross & 🇷🇺 command knew about it" https://t.co/ewp5OrFV7W pic.twitter.com/Z8vEiocsSc

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) August 30, 2022

[In the Donetsk direction, Russian forces are strengthening the grouping of troops in the Kurakhiv direction due to the regrouping of individual units from the Central Military District.] Russian forces do not stop trying to enter the administrative border of the Donetsk oblast. To date, fierce battles continue in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions, in the Kodema, Zaytseve, Piski, Pervomaiske and Mariinka areas.

• [Ukrainian Armed Forces conduct positional battles to improve the tactical position along the contact line. The main efforts of our units are focused on fire damage to control points, anti-aircraft defence facilities, warehouses with ammunition and disrupting the functioning of Russian logistical support system.]
• In the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces shelled the areas of the settlements of Vesele, Berestove, Bohorodychne, Tetyanivka, Zakitne, Mala Piskunivka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, and Ivano-Daryivka with mortars, tanks, and rocket artillery. Areas near Spirne and Ivano-Daryivka were hit by enemy aircraft. [Yesterday, the districts of Sloviansk, Bohorodychne, Hryhorivka, Spirne, Pereizne and Vyimka were damaged by fire. Enemy aircraft strikes were recorded near Hryhorivka and Pryshyb.]
• In the Bakhmut direction, shelling from artillery of various types was recorded near Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Soledar, Yakovlivka, Zaytseve, Mayorsk and Kodema. [Yesterday, Russian forces fired from tanks, artillery and MLRS near Bakhmut, Soledar, Bilohorivka, Zaytseve and Kodema. The occupiers launched a rocket attack on the district of the city of Kostiantynivka.]
  • Russian forces tried to advance in the directions of Bakhmut, Vesela Dolyna and Zaitseve, but were unsuccessful and retreated. Attempts are being made to establish control over the settlement of Kodema, and fighting continues. [Yesterday, Russian forces tried to advance in the directions of Zaytseve, Vesela Dolyna and Bakhmut, but were unsuccessful and retreated.]
  • [The invaders are trying to establish control over the settlement of Kodema from several directions at the same time, fighting continues.]
• In the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces fired mortars, tanks, artillery and MLRS near Avdiivka, Opytne, Umanske, Pervomaiske, Staromykhailivka, and New York. [Yesterday, Russian forces carried out mortar and artillery attacks near Mariinka, Vesele, Opytne and Novomykhailivka.]
  • [Yesterday, they tried to improve the tactical position in the directions of Opytnye, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske and Krasnohorivka, suffered significant losses and retreated.]
  • With offensive actions, it tried to improve the tactical position in the directions of Krasnohorivka and Mariinka, suffered losses and retreated.
• In the Novopavlivsk direction, enemy fire was recorded near Novomykhailivka, Paraskoviivka, Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva, Velika Novosilka, and Blagodatne. [Yesterday, Russian forces shelled territories near Pavlivka, Prechystivka, Novoukrainka and Novopole.]
• In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy is using tanks, MLRS and artillery, Russian forces carried out shelling along the contact line. Russian forces are regrouping units and units of the 3rd Army Corps on the temporarily occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhia region intending to resume the offensive in the specified direction. [Yesteray, Russian forces inflicted fire damage on objects in the areas of settlements of Novoprokopivka, Robotyne, Chervone, Hulyaipole, Novoandriivka, Zaliznychne, Kopani, Zelene Pole, Poltavka, Mali Shcherbaki, Kamianske, Orihiv, Stepove and Olhivske. Enemy aviation operated near Novodanylivka and Novosilka.]

 

In the Pivdenny Buh direction, Russian forces continued shelling military and civilian infrastructure in the areas of the settlements of Oleksandrivka, Lyubomirivka, Novomykolaivka, Lupareve, Chervonyi Yar, Novohryhorivka, Stepove, Pervomaiske, Kiselivka, Partyzanske, Kvitneve, Chervona Dolyna, Kobzartsi, Ternivka, Andriivka, Osokorivka, Olhyne, Ivanivka , Trudolyubivka, Dobryanka, Potyomkine, Knyazivka and Topolyne. The Andriyivka district and the Plotnytske tract were hit by air strikes. [Yesterday, Russian forces shelled the areas of the settlements of Oleksandrivka, Novoselivka, Lyubomirivka, Stepova Dolyna, Novohrigorivka, Kiselivka, Shyroke, Pervomaiske, Kalynivka, Andriivka, Lozove, Shevchenkove, Belousove, Zarichne, Knyazivka, Olhyne, and Zelenodolsk.]

• [Yesterday, Russian forces carried out airstrikes near Andriivka, Davydiv Brid, Osokorivka, and Potyomkine. Russian occupiers continue to destroy civilian objects in the city of Mykolaiv with rocket attacks.]
• Under the cover of the infrastructure of the nuclear power plant, the artillery of the Russian federation intensified its shelling of the areas of the settlements of Nikopol and Oleksiivka.]

Russian naval group in the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of ​​Azov continues to carry out the tasks of reconnaissance and blocking civilian shipping. The threat of missile strikes on objects and infrastructure elements deep in the territory of Ukraine continues.

[There is still a threat of missile strikes on objects and infrastructure elements deep in the territory of Ukraine.]

Russian forces suffer significant losses in manpower.”

Military Updates 

Almost 120 Russian troops were killed, and over 30 equipment units were destroyed in Ukraine’s South Aug 30, Ukrinform reports, citing Operational Command South. “On the southern front lines, the Ukrainian military inflicted losses on Russian forces troops, with 117 invaders killed and over 30 units of equipment destroyed. Throughout the day, Ukrainian missile and artillery units unleashed strikes on four enemy control and command points and four logistical arteries – Kakhovsky, Darivsky, and two Antonivsky bridges. The degree of damage has massively restricted their operability.

“Our aircraft carried out 16 strikes on strongholds, ammunition depots, and areas where the occupiers’ manpower, weapons, and equipment have been amassed,” the statement says. According to verified reports, Ukraine’s strikes eliminated 117 invaders and destroyed nine T-72 tanks, three Grad MLR systems, a Hyacinth-S self-propelled gun, a Msta self-propelled howitzer, 18 armoured vehicles, and four ammunition depots in Bashtanka, Beryslav, Kakhovka, and Kherson districts.”

Armed Forces of Ukraine again strike Antonivka Bridge, Ukrinform reports. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine again struck the Antonivka Bridge in Kherson region on Tuesday evening. “Kherson region. Another strike on the Antonivka Bridge! It seems to me that this is the final chord,” Serhiy Khlan, a member of the Kherson Regional Council, posted on Facebook. In addition, Telegram channels report explosions in Russian-occupied Tavriyske in the Kherson region and Kherson city.”

Ukrainian forces confirm new strikes on three bridges in the Kherson region, Ukrinform reports, citing Operational Command South. “According to the report, the situation in the operational zone in the [Pivdenny Buh direction] remains difficult but is controlled by the Ukrainian defence forces. Positional battles are underway in order to improve the position on the front line.

Last night, our bomber aircraft struck two enemy positions outside Kyselivka and Kostyrka. Rocket and artillery units carried out more than 220 fire missions, including on three bridges – the Antonivka Road Bridge, Antonivka Rail Bridge and Darivka Bridge – to secure their unusable status,” the report said.

According to the report, Russian forces last night lost 159 soldiers and 60 pieces of equipment, including five T-72 tanks, three Msta-B howitzers, an S-300 launcher, an electronic warfare station and a radar, a 120mm mobile mortar, five anti-tank missile systems, 40 armored and motor vehicles.”

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1564759369727807491

Russian military base, FSB dining place blown up in Melitopol, Ukrinform reports, citing Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov. “A series of explosions has recently taken place in the temporarily occupied city of Melitopol. Ukrainian partisans destroyed an enemy military base, ammunition depot and a place, where Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) officers used to have dinner.”

Russian troops shelled evacuation convoy in Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Civilians were trying to leave occupied Melitopol when Russian forces started shelling. People were forced to get out of their cars and hide under them, the mayor of Melitopol said – Pravda https://t.co/0ZpiPtFkTH pic.twitter.com/bSF2u3gj9A

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) August 30, 2022

According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours):

• Ukrainian armoured forces have continued to assault Russia’s Southern Grouping of Forces on several axes across the south of the country since Monday. Ukrainian formations have pushed the front line back some distance in places, exploiting relatively thinly held Russian defences.
• In line with its doctrine, Russia will likely now attempt to plug the gaps in its line using pre-designated mobile reserve units. These will likely include some of those from the Eastern Grouping of Forces.
• Russia continues to expedite attempts to generate new reinforcements for Ukraine. Volunteer battalions of the new 3rd Army Corps had departed their home base near Moscow by 24 August, highly likely for onward deployment to Ukraine. The operational effectiveness of these units is not known. The 3rd Army Corps is highly likely short of personnel and these troops have had limited training.
• From early on 29 August 2022, several brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces increased the weight of artillery fires in front line sectors across southern Ukraine. Ukrainian long-range precision strikes continue to disrupt Russian resupply. It is not yet possible to confirm the extent of Ukrainian advances.
• However, since the start of August, Russia has made significant efforts to reinforce its force on the western bank of the Dnipro River around Kherson. The Southern Military District’s (SMD) 49th Combined Arms Army has highly likely been augmented with components of the Eastern Military District’s (EMD) 35th Combined Arms Army. Most of the units around Kherson are likely under-manned and are reliant upon fragile supply lines by ferry and pontoon bridges across the Dnipro.
• This integration of SMD and EMD units suggests a significant reorganisation of Russia’s force in Ukraine. There is a realistic possibility that Russia has moved to rationalise the several, semi-independent, operational commands which contributed to its poor performance early in the invasion. If Ukraine succeeds in undertaking sustained offensive operations, the cohesion of this untested structure will likely be a key factor in the sustainability of Russian defences in the south.

According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours): 

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1564524650801004544

Losses of the Russian army 

As of Wednesday 31 August, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:

• Personnel – more than 47900 (+350),
• Tanks – 1974 (+20),
• Armoured combat vehicles – 4312 (+18),
• Artillery systems – 1091 (+12),
• Multiple rocket launchers –MLRS – 285 (+3),
• Air defence means – 152 (+1),
• Aircraft – 234 (+0),
• Helicopters – 204 (+0),
• Automotive technology and fuel tanks – 3236 (+19),
• Vessels/boats – 15 (+0),
• UAV operational and tactical level – 849 (+2),
• Special equipment – 103 (+0),
• Mobile SRBM system – 4 (+0),
• Cruise missiles – – 196 (+0)

Russian enemy suffered the greatest losses (of the last day) in the Donetsk and Kurakhove directions.

Ukrainian forces using dummy HIMARS to lure Russian missiles, Ukrinform reports, citing The Washington Post. “Ukraine has tricked Russia into wasting expensive long-range cruise missiles on dummy targets that look like High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems. The Ukrainian decoys are made out of wood but can be indistinguishable from an artillery battery through the lens of Russian drones, which transmit their locations to naval cruise missile carriers in the Black Sea, the report said.

A senior Ukrainian official who spoke to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity said that after a few weeks in the field, the decoys drew at least 10 Kalibr cruise missiles, an initial success that led Ukraine to expand the production of the replicas for broader use. Last month, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered his generals to prioritize the destruction of the long-range artillery systems after they struck key Russian supply lines. “They’ve claimed to have hit more HIMARS than we have even sent,” one US diplomat observed.”

⚰️Втрати рф станом на 31 серпня

▪️ 47900 особового складу (+350)
▪️ 4312 бмп та бтр (+25)
▪️ 1974 танків (+20)
▪️ 1091 артилерійських систем (+12)
▪️ 204 гвинтокрили та 234 літаки
▪️ 15 кораблів та катерів#StopRussia #StandwithUkraine pic.twitter.com/h3RzjKhy61

— VoxUkraine (@voxukraine) August 31, 2022

Humanitarian 

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1564734710223441925

Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely setting conditions for the coerced cultural assimilation of displaced Ukrainians in Russia to erase their Ukrainian cultural identity, the Institute for the Study of War reports. “Head of the Russian Federal Agency for Ethnic Affairs, Igor Barinov, spoke about the creation of “adaptation centers” for “migrants” living in Russia with Putin on August 29. Barinov stated that with Putin’s permission and support, the Federal Agency for Ethnic Affairs is working on programs in unspecified pilot regions to ensure that “migrants” to Russia know and respect Russian traditions, customs, and laws to prevent “migrants” from experiencing  “social isolation” in Russia. Barinov claimed that there is a risk of ethnic minorities in Russia forming enclaves that will exacerbate ethnic crime within Russia, and that “adaptation centers” would be an effective tool in maintaining the stability of migrant communities. 

Russian outlet Vot Tak amplified statements made by Russian migration expert Alexander Verkhovsky that such programs should structure themselves as something between refugee camps and vocational training centers for migrants.  Verkhovsky also noted that over 3.5 million displaced Ukrainians have entered Russia since the full-scale invasion began on February 24. Many displaced Ukrainians in Russia are not in Russia voluntarily, and the Russian government has forcefully transferred at least 1,000 children from Mariupol to Russia.  The forcible transfer of children of one group to another “with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group” is a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

The creation of so-called social adaptation programs in Russia would add a social dimension to the legal frameworks through which Putin likely seeks to forcibly culturally assimilate Ukrainians into the Russian Federation. As ISW previously reported on August 29, Putin signed two decrees on August 27 in a purported effort to assist stateless peoples and migrants from Ukraine to indefinitely live and work in the Russian Federation with certain social payments allocated to those who left Ukraine following February 18. Russian Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev also stated that Russia will begin working on a bill in September for the condition of entry, exit, and stay in Russia for foreigners. Putin’s decrees and the bill alluded to by Medvedev are likely meant to set conditions for migrants from Ukraine to remain in Russia permanently, thus essentially forming the backbone of an extended campaign to at population transfer between Ukraine and Russia with the purpose of Russifying Ukraine. Programs at so-called adaptation centers would likely serve as a form of cultural reprogramming to erase Ukrainian cultural identity from displaced Ukrainian who either fled to Russia or were deported by Russian authorities.

Hunger protests broke out in Mariupol

Residents of the city are on brink of survival. Due to the large number of residents of Mariupol who need help, Red Cross tried to suspend humanitarian aid, then protests broke out, adviser to the mayor reported https://t.co/nb8oHtucys pic.twitter.com/jJip8aP05N

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) August 30, 2022

“Hunger riot” takes place in Mariupol due to lack of humanitarian aid – adviser to the mayor, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Petro Andriushchenko, adviser to the mayor of Mariupol. “The first real hunger riot. Due to the fact that there is no humanitarian aid from the invaders, the only source of food for many is humanitarian aid from the Red Cross. But because there were too many people, the Red Cross tried to cancel its distribution. There was a real riot.”

OHCHR recorded 13,718 civilian casualties in Ukraine as of August 29. 5,663 were killed (including 365 children) and 8,055 injured (including 623 children).

️️Environmental 

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1564696463929593857

FM Kuleba: Russian invaders turn ZNPP into a military base, the entire continent at risk, Ukrinform reports, citing the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba. “For decades, nuclear safety has remained Ukraine’s top priority, especially given our tragic past. Russian invaders turned Zaporizhzhia NPP into a military base putting the entire continent at risk. Russian military must get out of the plant — they have nothing to do there! Kuleba wrote.

A reminder that Russian troops seized Zaporizhzhia NPP on the night of March 4, 2022. Since then, they have been deploying military equipment and ammunition within the site of the plant, and opening fire on the adjacent territory.”

Ukraine will make every effort for IAEA mission to arrive at Zaporizhzhia NPP, Ukrinform reports. “Representatives of the IAEA have already arrived in our country and are to visit the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. It’s an important mission, and we’re doing everything we can for it to be safe and work at full capacity. Unfortunately, Russia does not stop provocations precisely in those directions from which the mission is supposed to arrive at the station. But I hope that the IAEA mission will be able to start its work, President Zelensky said in his evening address. He added that the situation at the ZNPP and in Enerhodar, in the surrounding areas was extremely threatening.”

IAEA convoy sets off towards Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Reuters reports. “An International Atomic Energy Agency car convoy set off from Kyiv towards the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine on Wednesday morning, a Reuters witness reported from the scene.

It was unclear when the IAEA mission planned to reach Europe’s biggest nuclear plant which is now controlled by Russian forces and has become one of the focal points in the Ukrainian conflict, with Moscow and Kyiv accusing each other of undermining its safety.”

Legal 

VR calls on the international community to recognize the mass execution of POWs in Olenivka as a terrorist attack, Ukrinform reports. “The Verkhovna  Rada of Ukraine addressed the United Nations, the European Union, the European Council, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the Parliaments and Governments of NATO member states, the International Committee of the Red Cross, Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders), condemning the cynical killing of the Ukrainian POWs, the defenders of Mariupol, which was committed by Russia in Olenivka on the night of July 29, 2022.

The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine urged the UN and the ICRC, which acted as the guarantors of the life and safety of Ukrainian POWs, to immediately send an inspection mission to the Olenivka correctional facility, which is situated within the temporarily occupied area of Donetsk Region and, in cooperation with the OSCE, to take measures in order to constantly monitor the confinement conditions of all the Ukrainian POWs.

In addition, Parliament called on the UN, the ICRC and MSF to make every effort to unconditionally release female medics from Russian captivity, including pregnant and wounded women.

The Verkhovna Rada also urged the international institutions to intensify efforts to ensure the exchange and return of the Ukrainian POWs, the defenders of Mariupol, to Ukraine, as Ukraine’s only efforts do not produce the necessary results in this regard.

Parliament insists that the international community recognize Russia’s actions against Ukrainian POWs in Olenivka as a terrorist attack and Russia as a terrorist state, and increase pressure on the Russian Federation and its partner countries that support the terrorist regime.”

Russian occupants loot homes of people who fled Kherson Oblast, taking furniture and appliances, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Kherson Oblast Police. “Russian military personnel loot people’s houses and take stolen goods away [presumably to Russia – ed.] in [the city of] Kherson and [Kherson] Oblast. This has happened on Shevchenko Street in the Oblast’s administrative centre [the city of Kherson – ed.]. The occupiers looted the houses whose owners left for Ukraine-controlled territory in the villages of Krasnosilske, Novodmytrivka and Stanislav in [Kherson] Oblast. Military personnel of the aggressor country [Russia – ed.] used cars they had also stolen to transport the stolen furniture and appliances.”

379 children were killed, 735 children injured, 7,297 deported by foe forces, and 230 reported missing – the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine reports as of August 31. 2,328 educational establishments are damaged as a result of shelling and bombings, 289 of them are destroyed fully. 31,059 crimes of aggression and war crimes and 14,488 crimes against national security were registered.

Support 

Borrell: EU ready to continue supporting Ukraine as long and as much as needed, Ukrinform reports. “The European Union stands united in support of Ukraine and the Member States remain ready to continue supporting [Ukraine] as long and as much as needed,” EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said, following an informal meeting of EU defence ministers in Prague.

He noted that the flow of military support for Ukraine had continued and even increased. In particular, the support consists not only of military equipment but also the training of the Ukrainian military. No concrete decisions were made on the launch of the EU training mission in Prague. […]

In addition, the ministers discussed the global consequences of Russia´s invasion, particularly the effects of Russia’s weaponisation of food supplies, grain exports, and energy supplies, together with representatives from the United Nations, NATO, and the European Parliament. “The security challenges are not just about Ukraine. There are other scenarios. Russia is increasing its negative influence,” Borrell stressed.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1564611797155516425

Answering a question about the restriction of Russian citizens’ visa access to EU countries, Borrell noted that there were different approaches to this issue among EU member states. Today, during the informal meeting of the ministers, no decisions will be made on this matter, but the informal Council of the EU meeting will be able to determine the general political orientation regarding the trips of Russian citizens to the EU.”

Sweden to send Ukraine additional package of military aid worth 500M crowns, Ukrinform reported Monday, citing Reuters. “Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson says Sweden will provide another 500 million crowns ($46.75 million) in military aid to Ukraine to help the nation defend itself against Russian aggression. We will continue to support Ukraine as long as the war is going on,” Andersson said following a meeting with the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba.

She added that, in general, the Swedish government will provide Ukraine with an additional aid package worth 1 billion kroner, which will include both military and civilian aid. Sweden’s prime minister did not offer any details of the military package, noting it would be similar to the previous package, which included anti-tank weapons, personal protective equipment and mine clearance equipment. The civilian part of the package will include purchases of Ukrainian wheat that will be passed on to countries facing food shortages and help boost Ukraine’s economy.”

Germany to send air defence systems, radar systems, and recon drones to Ukraine, Ukrinform reported Monday. German Chancellor Olaf “Scholz said that in the coming weeks and months, Ukraine will receive [from Germany] new, very modern weapons: air defence equipment, radar systems, reconnaissance drones, etc… Our goal is the modern Armed Forces of Ukraine that can protect their country in the long term. According to the German Chancellor, the latest security assistance package from Germany exceeds 600 million euros.

He added that the Federal Republic of Germany together with the Netherlands launched an initiative aimed at distributing tasks among Ukraine’s partners for the long term, and this initiative should be approved as soon as possible. According to it, Germany, for example, assumes “special responsibility” in building up Ukrainian artillery and air defence.

“We will continue providing this support reliably and as long as it takes,” he promised. At the same time, the politician noted that the reconstruction of destroyed Ukraine would be a task for generations and require significant international efforts and a smart strategy. This will be discussed, in particular, at the expert conference in Berlin on October 25, to which Scholz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen would invite Ukraine and its partners from around the world.”

Shmyhal: International partners have allocated $17.5B to Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war, Ukrinform reports. “In total, our international partners have provided Ukraine with 17.5 billion dollars since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. We are grateful to everyone for this assistance, which allows us to ensure the economic stability of our state. At the same time, such economic stability is the basis for winning the war and liberating our territories from the invaders We did not start this war, but we will definitely end it with Ukraine’s victory,” Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal said at the Government’s meeting.

He informed that a visit of representatives of the Ukrainian government to Germany was planned to discuss macro-financial assistance and an increase in arms supplies. Ahead of this visit, we have good signals from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz regarding Germany’s readiness to develop air defence and artillery for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Currently, Germany is among five major countries and institutions in terms of financial support provided to Ukraine, Shmyhal noted.”

Norway plans to allocate NOK 2B to help Ukraine provide itself with gas, Ukrinform reports, citing a press release from the Government of Norway. “The Government of Norway announced its intention to allocate NOK 2 billion (about USD 180,000) so that the Ukrainians could provide themselves with gas for the winter period against the background of Russian aggression.”

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1564773211052445697

US EXIM Bank, Ukraine pledge cooperation on financing, reconstruction, Reuters reports. “The head of the US Export-Import Bank and a senior Ukrainian development minister on Tuesday pledged to keep working on US financing opportunities to support Ukraine’s energy security and infrastructure, the export credit agency said.”

New Developments 

1. Zelensky tells Russians to run for their lives from the Ukraine offensive in the south, Reuters “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Russian soldiers to flee for their lives after his forces launched an offensive to retake southern Ukraine.”
2. Russia shelling corridors for IAEA to ZNPP to direct mission through Crimea, Ukrinform reports, citing Mykhailo Podoliak. “Russia is deliberately shelling corridors for IAEA mission to reach ZNPP. All to offer passage through Crimea/ORDLO. Ukraine’s position is the same. Access only through the controlled territory of Ukraine. Nuclear power plant demilitarization. Russian troops withdrawn. Only Ukrainian personnel at the station,” Podoliak stressed.”
3. The next Ramstein format meeting is scheduled for September 8, Ukrinform “U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III is scheduled to host an in-person Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, September 8, 2022,” reads the press releaseof the US Air Forces in Europe – Air Forces Africa.”
4. Last Soviet leader Gorbachev, who ended Cold War and won the Nobel prize, dies aged 91, Reuters Mikhail Gorbachev, who ended the Cold War without bloodshed, died on Tuesday. “Gorbachev, the last Soviet president, forged arms reduction deals with the United States and partnerships with Western powers to remove the Iron Curtain that had divided Europe since World War Two and bring about the reunification of Germany. But his internal reforms helped weaken the Soviet Union to the point where it fell apart, a moment that President Vladimir Putin has called the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the twentieth century.”

Germany raids companies suspected of selling precursor chemicals to Russia that could be used to manufacture chemical weapons such as Novichok

One of them is Riol Chemie GmbH which made more than 30 shipments to Russia without export permits -OCCRP https://t.co/b1LKAcJfcW

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) August 30, 2022

Assessment 

1. On the war. 

Map https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-30*

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of Saturday 24 August, 2022:

Russia receives a batch of Iranian drones likely for use in Ukraine, Ukrinform reports, citing CNN. “Russia has purchased and delivered to its territory the first batch of Iranian combat drones that will be likely deployed on the battlefield in Ukraine. The US assesses Russia is now in possession of weapons-capable Iranian drones that they will likely deploy on the battlefield in Ukraine, US officials said. It is noted that the Russians picked up the drones from an Iranian airfield earlier this month and transported them back to Russia in cargo planes in mid-August. 

The US now believes that Russia has officially purchased and transferred the Mohajer-6 and Shahed-series drones — the Shahed-129 and Shahed-191 — back to Russia, likely for use in the war in Ukraine, the officials said. It is specified that these types of UAVs are capable of carrying precision-guided munitions and can be used for surveillance.

The US believes that Russia intends to import hundreds of them to use for air-to-surface attacks, electronic warfare and targeting inside Ukraine, the officials said. However, many of the drones Russia has purchased from Iran have already experienced numerous failures, so it is unclear how useful they could be for the Russians when deployed, the officials noted.”

1. Consequences and what to do? 

New Russia gas halt tightens energy screws on Europe, Reuters reports. “Russia halted gas supplies via a major pipeline to Europe on Wednesday, intensifying an economic battle between Moscow and Brussels and raising the prospects of recession and energy rationing in some of the region’s richest countries. The outage for maintenance on Nord Stream 1 means that no gas will flow to Germany between 01:00 GMT on Aug. 31 and 01:00 GMT on Sept. 3, according to Russian state energy giant Gazprom.”

Gazprom says it will halt gas supplies to France’s Engie, cites lack of payment, Reuters reports. “Russia’s Gazprom said on Tuesday it would fully suspend gas deliveries to major European utility Engie from Thursday in a dispute over contracts, a move which will deepen concerns about Europe’s winter energy supply. Gazprom’s deliveries to Engie had already dropped substantially since Russia invaded Ukraine and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire warned that “a drastic cut” risked jeopardising France’s forecast of 2.5% GDP growth this year.

Very clearly Russia is using gas as a weapon of war and we must prepare for the worst-case scenario of a complete interruption of supplies, France’s Energy Transition Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher told France Inter radio.”

UK shop price inflation jumps to 5.1% in July, Reuters reports. “Shops and supermarkets in Britain increased prices by 5.1% in the 12 months to August, the largest rise in records dating back to 2005, reflecting a jump in food costs caused by the war in Ukraine, the British Retail Consortium said on Wednesday. Food prices leapt by 9.3% after a 7.0% increase in July, driven by increases in products such as milk, margarine and crisps as the war pushed up the costs of animal feed, fertiliser, wheat and vegetable oils, the BRC said.”

The US must close the gap between ends and means in Ukraine, James M. Dubik, Ph.D., a retired lieutenant general of the US Army, argues in The Hill. “Success in war is measured not by level of effort but by the degree to which a country achieves the policy goals set by its senior political leaders. Regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine, the United States has four policy goals — two grand strategic and two theater strategic. Achieving these goals is not guaranteed. And without changes, the US could yet achieve little.

Using public statements and speeches of senior US leaders, America’s primary grand strategic policy goals appear to reinforce the rules-based international order’s sanction against aggression.  By making sure that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s illegal, unjustified aggression does not pay, the US seeks to deter others from using force in similar ways. Its second grand strategic goal is to return America to a trusted position of global leadership. Coupled with these are two theater strategic policy goals: strengthen NATO and assist Ukraine in defending its right to self-determination.

All four of these policy goals are important and achievable, but without succeeding in both theater strategic goals, the US is unlikely to achieve its grand strategic aims. 

The US seems to be measuring success in Ukraine by level of effort: tonnage of ammunition supplied, number and type of arms and equipment delivered, amount of money spent. But the proper metric is progress toward achieving stated aims. And with respect to Ukraine specifically, it means delivering military goods that facilitate successful Ukraine military operations — defensive and offensive. Against this metric, the effect of allied logistical assistance is mixed.     

Part of the problem has been how the US and allies are operating: an ebb and flow logistics pipeline, rather than a continuous flow. This approach was enough to defeat the initial Russian attempt to quickly defeat Ukrainian forces and replace the Zelensky government. And it has been enough to stall Russian advances. But it has not been, and will not be, sufficient to allow the Ukraine military to conduct major counter-offensive operations — which are necessary for both Ukraine to beat back the Russians and the US to achieve its goals. Ebb and flow logistics is not how the US would supply its own forces. 

Without a continuous, reliable flow of logistics, Ukraine cannot defend, which includes carrying out local counter-attacks while setting conditions for and conducting counter-offensives against created or existing Russian vulnerabilities. Both are necessary to push back Russian forces and put Ukraine in the strongest possible negotiating position when that time comes. Without the confidence that the supplies are present and available — not “trust me, they’re coming” — Ukraine’s political and military leaders are likely less to risk any major counter-offensive. It would be imprudent for them to do otherwise. The US must lead the allies in fixing this logistical-operational disconnect or risk losing the opportunities that Russian weakness presents and lowering the probability of achieving Ukraine and American goals.

So far, strengthening NATO — America’s second theater strategic policy goal — has gone relatively well. NATO members are increasing their military spending, the eastern flank is reinforced, and two new allies are coming aboard. These actions can prevent Putin from widening the war, and they demonstrate united resolve against Putin’s illegal aggression and his use of war crimes as a method of war. Part of strengthening NATO included improving its nuclear deterrence posture, which has told Putin that escalation is a risk that he should not take.   

Taken in concert, NATO’s actions, as well as those of other allies, contribute to the grand strategic goal of reinforcing the rules-based international order, but there is a risk of global fatigue as the war drags on. Putin likely will test Europe’s unity and resolve this winter, even as the US and NATO have begun taking steps to mitigate Putin’s use of fuel as a weapon. And China, North Korea and Iran may take actions to test the strength of rules-based order, as well as American leadership, in their geographic areas. One could argue that these actions already have begun. So what the immediate future may hold remains part of “the fog of war.” […]

In the Ukraine war, the US, NATO and other allies must provide Ukraine what it needs to succeed via a consistent, reliable logistics flow. Continuing ebb and flow will drag out the war.  There remains the risk of widening or escalating the war, but Putin’s capacities have been so diminished that the probability of his acting on that desire is low. 

To tip the balance even more favorably, US industrial capacity must expand. Further, the US must work with NATO allies to improve energy preparedness, preventing Putin from gaining a winter advantage. Globally, America must work to reduce tensions in the Far East and the Middle East while it focuses on Europe. Finally, internal to the US, senior political and military leaders must shake off the hubris of the post-Cold War and post 9/11 periods and see the global security environment for what it is: an environment from which a war no one wants could emerge.“

Hans Petter Midttun: “The European Union stands united in support of Ukraine and the Member States remain ready to continue supporting [Ukraine] as long and as much as needed, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said.” “Our determination has not changed and we are ready to maintain this effort for the long term, Macron said.” “The US “will continue to support the people of Ukraine in defending their country from Russia’s aggression for as long as it takes”, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. “Germany will keep up its support for Kyiv for as long as it takes, Scholz stressed.”

As long as it takes to achieve what? What does it mean?

The statements do not express anything but an intention to support Ukraine for yet some time. It is not a promise to help Ukraine defeat Russia or evict the Russian forces from Ukrainian territory. They are not linked to the liberation of Ukrainian territory occupied since 24 February. Nor are they connected to the Ukrainian ambition of de-occupying the Crimean Peninsular and parts of Donbas occupied in 2014 already. They carry no promise of the West closing the sky over Ukrainian territory or Maritime Exclusive Economic Zones. Nor do they commit to humanitarian intervention. The statements do not give any hints about the inflow of western defence aid in either scope or scale.

The statements only promise a continuation in support of Ukraine for yet some months.

They are, however, also a demonstration of division. The West is not one body and does not act like one. Even though we have seen Europe and the USA come together in a manner we have not seen since the Cold War, we have also seen signs of division and discord.

Europe is struggling to agree on the most painful, but also the most effective sanctions. The initial willingness to escalate sanctions to break the Russian economy and deny it the ability to wage war has long lost momentum.

There is no consensus on what a Ukrainian victory looks like. NATO and its member states have not yet established any “red lines” or strategic aims and objectives for their ongoing support of Ukraine. The Alliance has instead walked away from its past commitment to act in defence of international law. NATO is operating in the shadow of the EU, reducing its support to non-military aid only.

The supply of weapons further shows the disparity in strategy on how countries see the war solved. All are unwilling to provide what Ukraine need to defeat and evict the Russian forces.

Most predictable of all, we have already seen many recommendations for Ukrainian concessions and so-called “peace agreements” at the cost of not only Ukrainian independence and sovereignty but also European stability and security.

The lack of clarity in end, ways and means indicate “ghosts of negotiations and compromise”. If we supported the Ukrainian ambitions, a clear statement would bring clarity to the battlefield. Russia would know what to plan for. If the ambition was assessed as credible – which after 15 years of inaction cannot be taken for granted – it might even help it formulate an exit strategy. The West could not at least, establish a clear link between end, ways and means. Instead, by not saying outright what we want to achieve, ambiguity and uncertainty persist. Normally, politicians hate being the bearer of bad news, like “We will keep up our support for Kyiv as long as it takes to reach a peace agreement”.

The biggest flaw of the statements, however, is the notion that this still is a war between Russia and Ukraine.

While the European Parliament has clearly stated that the EU member states are exposed to a Russian Hybrid War, NATO has come up with the rather feeble conclusion that “the Euro-Atlantic area is not at peace”.

The fact is that the war in Ukraine threatens European security, stability and prosperity and Ukraine – not NATO – is defending it. Russia – irrespective of our desire to stay detached – has already defined the USA and NATO as both being a part of the war in Ukraine and accused us of waging war against Russia. It has publically declared that the West is waging an information war,  economic war, acts of aggression, war with Russia through a proxy and a total war against the Russian Federation. It has even waged a Hybrid War against the West for years. In December 2021 it even handed over brazen ultimatums to both the USA and NATO member states before starting a new phase of its war against Ukraine.

The statements should therefore not bear a promise of support to Ukraine only. They should convey a clear statement that the West will help defend Ukraine in order to protect Euro-Atlantic security until peace is restored and Russia has been evicted from Ukrainian territory.

The absence of clarity indicates a lack of resolve and resilience, fueling Russia’s continued aggression.