Occupied Donbas and Crimea
As 2020 approaches its end and the New Year is nearly upon us, the situation in the Ukrainian regions of the Donbas and Crimea Russia occupied back in 2014 remains mostly unchanged. The de-occupation of the provinces isn’t in sight yet and what was true for them by the end of 2019 mostly remains in place now: military actions didn’t fully stop in the Donbas and negotiations are in gridlock while Crimea suffers from a lack of water and its occupation authorities continue their crackdown on dissenters.Donbas

Donbas negotiations in deadlock again as Russia demands local elections (again)[/boxright] Zelenskyy’s high hopes of busting the stalemate over the Russian occupied regions of Ukraine were behind the reshuffling of the Minsk Group (TCG) that negotiates peace for the Donbas. The accords on the Donbas achieved at the Normandy Four (N4) summit of Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France leaders in early December 2019 were meant to reset the ceasefire, prisoner swap process, and further peace negotiations. After the massive 127-to-76 prisoner exchange at the end of 2019, however, only a minor 14-to-17 swap followed up and the exchange process once again stalled for the rest of the year. In July, former president Leonid Kuchma quit the TCG and another ex-president, Leonid Kravchuk, replaced him as head of the Ukrainian delegation. Kravchuk’s faith in Russia’s negotiability crashed against reality: Russia has not changed its Donbas-related political demands, which are a red line for Ukraine, since 2014 despite any concessions made or proposed by the Ukrainian side.

As of 21 December 2020, at least 56 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the warzone against at least 110 fatalities in 2019.

Another highlight of the year is that six years of war didn’t change local political preferences in the Ukraine-controlled part of the Donbas. Local elections in the region that took place in October brought local elites, mostly consisting of former members of Yanukovych’s pro-Russian Party of Regions, to power once again.
Crimea
The freshwater crisis in the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula has significantly escalated in 2020. Ukraine had cut water supply via the North-Crimean Canal back in 2014 shortly after the annexation of Crimea. Since then, the Russian occupation authorities haven’t been able to substitute the Ukrainian water despite a lot of effort. Crimean water reservoirs have been drying up.
Domestic affairs
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Prosecutor General turns the tables on corruption fighter who survived three murder attempts[/boxright] In particular, a set of criminal cases and court hearings against Zelenskyy critics, former Euromaidan activists, and main opposition rivals have proved that the president dreads open political competition and tries to use law enforcement agencies in his interests. The replacement of former prosecutor general Riaboshapka by Iryna Venediktova in March opened a new wave of political persecution.
Pro-Russian forces in Ukraine, notably the Opposition Platform, actively use this state of affairs in their interest, trying to smear and criminalize the Euromaidan Revolution.

Ukrainian local elections: Stability of local elites and Zelenskyy’s crushing defeat[/boxright] These and many other minor events undermined the previously high rating of Zelenskyy, who in 2019 secured the largest share of votes and public support among all politicians in the history of independent Ukraine. Zelenskyy’s self-positioning as a person outside of the system has wilted. This was proven by Zelenskyy’s party's crushing defeat at local elections in October. Amid weak central government, local elites were re-elected with enormous support in almost all Ukrainian regional centers. Yet, this result reflects a fairly stable tendency of Ukrainian society, where moods towards the central government head south quickly under the impact of gloomy TV-narratives while staying more favorable towards local elites, who “do real things.”
In sum, Zelenskyy’s policy in 2020 had no single and strong long-term vector, instead being influenced by various groups of interests, including Ukrainian oligarchs, civil society, personal surrounding in the presidential office, foreign obligations to the EU and IMF. In particular, surprising was the government reshuffle in March just after 7 months of work of Honcharuk’s government. The new government had more ties with oligarchs but strong resistance of civil society, including street protests, prevented major rollback in reforms as well as possible revanche.
International relations

“Black Sea mosquito fleet”: how the UK will help Ukraine regain its naval footing[/boxright] No less positive are the agreements Ukraine reached with the UK. In October, Ukraine signed two important agreements: a comprehensive new partnership and trade agreement with the UK that will replace the EU-Association Agreement after Brexit, and a Memorandum on strengthening cooperation in the military and military-technical spheres. The latter will allow re-equipping the Ukrainian Navy, helping Ukraine regain its naval footing in the Black Sea after a knockout that came with Russia’s occupation of Crimea in 2014. In a step refreshingly full of initiative, Ukraine launched a new international format - the Lublin Triangle. Uniting Ukraine, Lithuania, and Poland, its aim is to further cooperation in defense and economy. And although it still has to be filled with concrete projects, Ukraine’s pro-activeness in initiating new formats of cooperation is undeniably laudable. [boxright]
International Criminal Court finally agrees to open case regarding war crimes in occupied Crimea and Donbas[/boxright] Regarding Ukraine’s number one problem -- Russian aggression -- development are both positive and negative. In what human rights activists called “THE event of the year,” in December, the International Criminal Court in The Hague finally decided to launch an investigation into the situation in Ukraine regarding war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in occupied Crimea and Donbas, bringing Russia’s responsibility for its aggression against Ukraine one step closer. Among other positive Crimea-related developments is the establishment of the Crimean Platform by the Ukrainian MFA in October. The Platform is an international forum for addressing the challenges emanating from the occupation of Crimea. It did not help to de-occupy Crimea yet, however, it promises to help return the topic of the occupation of Crimea to the forefront of public discourse.

