The problem has become more acute in recent years. The human rights situation in Crimea has deteriorated considerably since Russia annexed the peninsula in March 2014 in violation of international law. A law passed in December 2015 also allows the Russian Constitutional Court to disregard judgments of the European Court of Human Rights if it finds them to be inconsistent with the Russian Constitution. This has already happened several times, most notably in the case of the so-called Yukos ruling, according to which the Russian state should pay the equivalent of 1.9 billion euros to the former shareholders of the defunct oil company Yukos.
If a member fails to pay contributions for two years, the Committee of Ministers, in which all 47 member states are represented, undertakes a review of the situation. In concrete terms, this means considering whether and under what conditions Russia's membership can be maintained.In June 2017, Russia also stopped paying its contributions to the Council of Europe. As a good seven percent of the institution's budget is thus lacking, the result is substantial cuts that have long-term effects. The Council of Europe's youth work, for example, is threatened with collapse.
Face-saving offers
The steps taken by the Russian side are more of a threat than an offer of dialogue. Nevertheless, the PACE has tried to find a way for Russia to return to its place in the Assembly in a face-saving way. Most significant was a reform proposal that would have mitigated the consequences of a future suspension of the right to vote and made it much more difficult to refuse the annual accreditation of a PACE delegation. After a heated debate in the PACE in October 2018, the reform document was referred back to the relevant committee. The latter subsequently decided that the suspension of voting rights should not apply to the election of ECtHR judges or that of the Secretary General. The latter point is especially relevant because a new Secretary General will be elected in June 2019. The decisions taken by the Committee were rejected by the Russian leadership as insufficient. It demands the full reinstatement of the Russian delegation’s voting rights and a guarantee that these rights cannot be withdrawn in the future.In other words, the Kremlin insists on a fundamental change in the PACE’s procedural rules. This has so far been prevented by particularly committed delegations that are opposed to the Russian delegation being accommodated: first and foremost the Ukrainian delegation, but also those of Lithuania and Poland.
Arguments for and against Russia’s exclusion
None of the attempts to find a way out of the current impasse have been successful so far. In mid-May, the Committee of Ministers will deal with the question of Russian membership. It can continue its search for a way to persuade Russia to fulfill its obligations, but it can also signal its willingness to initiate Russia’s exclusion under Article 8 of the Council of Europe Statute.There are essentially two competing views on whether or not Russia should remain in the Council of Europe and what the implications would be: one that focuses on the consequences for Russia and a second that focuses on the consequences for the organization.
The Russian delegation has used PACE more as a platform for making statements than as an opportunity for constructive dialogue. It was also primarily concerned with softening criticism of Russia. The Russian delegation frequently joined forces with others to avoid such criticism. Such behavior undermines PACE's ability to set standards and norms in important democratic and rule-of-law issues.These concerns must be taken seriously, but they are based on an argument which focuses too exclusively on the situation in Russia. In a broader perspective, dangers can be identified that are even more far-reaching. With its behavior in and towards the Council of Europe, Russia has abundantly demonstrated that it is actively working to weaken the basic principles of the organization.
In recent years Russia has maintained its refusal to fulfill its obligations. As described above, it is not only a question of Russia’s failure to address human rights violations for years but increasingly also of its disregard for institutional rules and its attempts to change them for its own benefit. If the Council of Europe tolerates this behavior, it calls its own credibility severely into question.
For the Council of Europe, the most serious consequence of tolerating Russian behavior would thus be a massive loss of credibility which would have effects both within and outside the organization. This development would be accompanied by a dangerous erosion of democratic principles and the rule of law, which could sooner or later call into question the raison d'être of the Council of Europe.
The Council of Europe can do without Russia if necessary
Russia's response to previous face-saving offers to resume fulfillment of its obligations indicates that its representatives are consciously raising the stakes. They know that many of the relevant actors, including the Secretary General of the Council of Europe Thorbjørn Jagland, want to avoid a Russian withdrawal. As a price for staying in the Council of Europe, Russia, therefore, expects substantial concessions, especially as regards its voting rights in the PACE. There is no sign of the Kremlin's willingness to change the behavior sanctioned at the time.Rather, the Russian side wants to create a situation in which the due fulfillment of its obligations (above all the regular payment of contributions) can be portrayed as a concession.
However, the dangers of Russia remaining under the conditions dictated by its leadership are even greater. An acceptance of the Russian demands would mean that the country could undermine the standards and principles of the organization even more effectively in the future. A continuous weakening of the Council of Europe (not only by Russia) would, over time, also destroy the advantages of retaining Russian membership which have been highlighted by Russian civil society. It would, therefore, be more in Germany's and Europe's interest to strengthen the Council of Europe and its principles, even if this means renouncing Russia's membership.

Dr. Susan Stewart is a researcher in the Research Division on Eastern Europe and Eurasia.
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