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Expert: Poroshenko will have to make peace with Yatseniuk and his people in the new Rada

Expert: Poroshenko will have to make peace with Yatseniuk and his people in the new Rada
Article by: Iryna Hnatyshyn
Kyiv – The leading political forces that are running in the October 26 elections to the Verkhovna Rada have already published their lists of candidates. This time the future members of the Parliament include ATO battalion commanders, Maidan volunteers and those who became well-known for their helping the East. Yet once more, artists, athletes, former and current political prisoners, as well as well-known faces that traditional migrate between Radas, are ‘asking’ to be part of it. According to political technologist Serhiy Hayday, the attempts to update the main legislative government body are overall a positive sign, however, it is unlikely it will be able to work a full term. 

Can we already see what the majority in the new Parliament will be like?

Yes, as it is clear that the majority will be formed out of political forces such as ‘Petro Poroshenko’s Block,’ Arseniy Yatseniuk’s ‘People’s Front,’ and I think ‘Batkivshchina,’ if it surpasses the 5-percent barrier, and according to sociologists, it is quite possible. Therefore, the majority will consist of these three forces.

What are the chances of Oleh Lyashko’s ‘Radical Party’? 

It will pass the barrier. Lyashko has quite high ratings, though sociologists say that he has stopped growing and started falling in the past several weeks. I think that just like Hrytsenko’s block, Lyashko will traditionally take up the opposition niche and we will see him in opposition to the majority, which will be created around the presidential block.

What do you think of those who are included in the party lists? What is your attitude towards the continuation of the tradition, when singers, athletes etc. end up on the lists?

Singers and athletes are for peaceful times, and now the ‘trend’ is to include frontliners, battalion commanders in the lists, and, perhaps, Yatseniuk’s block has the majority of those, especially in the passing part. The ‘People’s Front’ party even has an individual body which is nowhere else to be found: the military council, which includes a big number of those who are currently on the front line and who are commanders. What is more, this is probably why Yatseniuk’s party has been dubbed ‘the field command party.’ There are about eight people there, and they really are present. Others have them to, Yury Mamchur is in the presidential block, Sadoviy’s ‘Samopomich’ has Semen Semenchenko, but they are 1-2 people.

The government will form the majority in the Parliament. There are accusations already that Poroshenko’s block has nobody to counter Arseniy Yatseniuk’s candidacy. What do you think? 

It is true, and Poroshenko, who understands this, has been trying to agree with Arseniy Yatseniuk until the very last moment to go to the elections together. But the different positions and a big number of people who are following Yatseniuk did not allow to do this, so they went their separate ways. But this is electoral intrigue. The question now is what the number of people going with Yatseniuk that will pass will be, and what percentage they will get. I think the President has no alternative to Arseniy Yatseniuk. This is why Poroshenko will have to make peace with Yatseniuk and his people in the new Verkhovna Rada, because most Ukrainians, according to sociologists, see Arseniy Yatseniuk in the Parliament, and this makes ‘People’s Front’ one of the parties that will definitely be part of the Parliament.

Is there a risk that holding the elections in conditions of war (and a ceasefire is not an end to the war) may lead to a split in Ukraine? It is already obvious that the East will be unable to vote objectively…

I think not. We voted for the President, after all, and it did not lead to a split but to consolidation. With the current Verkhovna Rada, it looks like we have none, as it doesn’t work. The elections can create an ideologically united majority which will pass laws the country needs.

Are the skeptics who claim that the new Parliament will not be able to work a full term right? 

I also think that it is unlikely this Rada will stay for the entire term. The situation changes drastically. We will see, possibly, a very big change in the government overall, because we are living in times when the elite is changing. And this Verkhovna Rada will include a lot of new people, especially, as I have already said, there will be people who were brought about by the front – the soldiers. In the entire world, servicemen have always been connected to the ‘elite.’ The national elite stems from soldiers. And taking into account that this Parliament will not change this elite, but only bring ‘foot soldiers’, we will see a lot of change. The country demands change, the country demands reform, and when a country has war and reforms, the government changes frequently.

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