The summit in Geneva between Presidents Joseph Biden of the United States and Vladimir Putin of Russia was supposed to stabilize bilateral relations by demarcating areas and issues each side deemed so important that any hostile incursion would encounter a strong response. In the present-day situation of intense confrontation—which differs from the old Cold War pattern because of its fast mutation and fluidity—this pragmatic recognition of “red lines” appears to make perfect sense. Yet growing evidence suggests the presumably achieved mutual understanding left many gaps in and overlaps between the roughly outlined spheres of acute concerns. As a result, the total volume of uncertainty inherent to the evolving confrontation has actually increased. Russia keeps probing Western resolve for upholding established rules because Putin believes playing by these “unfair” rules means a defeat for his maturing autocratic regime.
The Strategy’s proclamation of success in withstanding sanctions and upholding traditional values betrays elite foreboding that in the economic dimension of the irreducible confrontation with the West, Russia is a designated loser because its modernization is hopelessly stuck. Sanctions, even if presently focused on Belarus, amount to a sequence of hits on the most vulnerable sector in Russia’s “defenses” and cannot be countered symmetrically, because the shifts in the global energy markets increasingly deny Moscow the opportunity to “weaponize” its export of oil and natural gas. Russia can only respond to this irreparable breach of its “economic sovereignty” by striking back at Western weak points, disregarding the “red lines” intended to protect them. A demonstrated readiness to resort to military means is supposed to make Russia’s own “red lines” unassailable, but they are compromised more by the apparent degeneration of a corrupt autocracy than by any external challenges.
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