Putin regime likely to end by only one of five scenarios, Eidman says

Russian state crest in front of full moon (Image: vedomosti.ru)

 

Analysis & Opinion, Politics, Russia

Many analysts in Russia and the West are now openly talking about how the regime of Vladimir Putin could come to an end, making predictions that in many cases appear to be more an expression of their preferences than of the actual prospects of any one of them coming true.

Igor Eidman, a Russian commentator for Deutsche Welle, suggests that only one of the five predictions now on offer, all based on analogies with events in Russian or European history, has much of a chance of coming true if one examines all of them with any care history.

The first prediction about the end of the Putin era is what he calls “the ‘bunker’ scenario” in which Putin is destroyed as Hitler was by “complete international isolation.” However, the West doesn’t seem prepared for such an “uncompromising” stand, and even Putin isn’t “inadequate” enough to launch a suicidal global war.

The second set of predictions involves Putin being pushed aside or even killed by a palace coup, much as Paul I was, Eidman says. But that is unlikely: the Kremlin leader has had the time to select only those most loyal to his person to be in top jobs, and he has made sure that all the members of the elite know that their positions would be at risk if he were overthrown.

The third is perhaps the most hopeful and most unrealistic, involving as it does the notion that Putin and his siloviki will launch a new perestroika and bring reforms. He and they hate that idea more than anything else and they know that their system, like the Soviet one, would “inevitably collapse” if it reformed to the point of not relying on violence.

The fourth prediction, popular now among some Russian political emigres, is that Putin will ultimately “be forced” to take part in a roundtable with the opposition much as Marshal Jaruzelski was in Poland. But who in the Putin regime would sit down as an equal with Navalny or fail to remember that Jaruzelski was simply a half-way house to regime collapse?

And the fifth prediction, the only one that has much chance, Eidman suggests, is a popular explosion along the lines of February 1917. There is growing social discontent and anger about both rising income inequality and the increasingly hereditary nature of power and property in Putin’s Russia.

At some point “as was the case in 1917,” popular discontent will break out and some in the elite will decide that they can’t suppress the demonstrators and that their best chance for survival is to join them. When and how this might happen is far from clear, but the chances that it could are at least in evidence.

And this has one positive consequence, Eidman says. “Under certain circumstances,” a popular revolution in Russia could but not necessarily would set “the country on the European democratic path.” Whether that would be subverted as the February 1917 revolution was, of course, remains to be seen.


Related:

Edited by: A. N.

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

  • Eddy Verhaeghe

    A Russian Ploshad then 😉

  • veth

    Russians hate democracy, so after Putler they ‘choose’ another Czar.

    • laker48

      Most likely.

      • Czech Mate

        and only after that one, they will get a chance to really start over anew.

        That’s how I see it.

        • laker48

          Leopards ever change their spots.

  • laker48

    Muscovite RuSSians are a nation of slaves who preserved their Golden Horde heritage of deception, lies, disregard for human lives and dignity, and blind, uncritical obedience to any tyrant who rules them.

    • veth

      National Guard get new BTR-3DA armored carriers
      Before its commission by the army, BTR-3DA has been heavily tested, Ukroboronprom says.

      It has a mounted Sturm-M combat module with a 30-mm gun with 330 shots per minute.

      The carrier Sturm-M also has incorporates a 7-62 mm machine gun and automatic grenade thrower.

      Important, Sturm –M has guided anti-tank missiles allowing it to destroy enemy tanks at distances of up to 5 kms. Читайте більше тут: http://zik.ua/en/news/2017/06/02/national_guard_get_new_btr3da_armored_carriers_1108047

      • laker48

        Good!

        • veth

          Pivdenmash resumes production of Zenith booster rockets
          Pivdenmash, Southern Engineering Plant, signed a contract with S7 Sea Launch Ltd. On supplies of Zenith booster rockets, the plant’s press service reports June 3.

          “We are to manufacture 12 booster rockets for Sea Launch and Land Launch programs for peaceful research in space within the framework of international projects,” the report runs.

          The contract is a shot in the arm for Pivdenmash, with production falling since 2013.

          Today, the plant’s contract portfolio is worth $350 mn.

          Major partners are the United States, Italy, India, South Korea and others, the report runs. Читайте більше тут: http://zik.ua/en/news/2017/06/03/pivdenmash_resumes_production_of_zenith_booster_rockets_1108331

  • zorbatheturk

    Good article. I concur that a revolution is the only real way to bring about the demise of the Putinator.

  • Ihor Dawydiak

    Oddly enough, there is a sixth scenario or prediction which was not directly mentioned although it would not necessarily include regime change. That would involve an assassination of Putin and/or other key individuals using a number of possible methods such as a suicide bomber, poison or a sniper’s bullet(s). If nothing else, such an action would most certainly cause a considerable disarray in the Putin Administration.

    • laker48

      Quite remote, but not impossible. :)

    • Andrew Chmile

      lying paid ruski scumbag…….. another “clever” faqqot….

      just a lying kunt…..

      • Mykola Banderachuk

        Andrew speaking more clearly you make no sense

        • Andrew Chmile

          It was for “Ihor” — he understood!

  • Czech Mate

    Personally, I am betting on an “accident”. Let’s say plane crash is a pretty safe option. Not only for the Putler’s opposition but even for the dwarf himself. But would his giant hubris allow him to escape russian dead end street by faking his own death? We’ll see.