Extending Moscow-Kazan power-sharing treaty will destroy Russia, Gorevoy says

Putin presenting former Tatarstan President Mintimir Shaymiyev a map of 17th century Tataria. Moscow, January 2017 (Image: video capture)

Putin presenting former Tatarstan President Mintimir Shaymiyev a map of 17th century Tataria. Moscow, January 2017 (Image: video capture) 

2017/02/14 - 11:50 • Analysis & Opinion, Politics, Russia

If Moscow extends the Russian-Tatarstan power-sharing treaty beyond its expiration date this summer, Ruslan Gorevoy says, not only will almost all the non-Russian republics demand the same but so too will many predominantly ethnic Russian ones like Kaliningrad and Primorsky kray.

And the result will “a domino effect” that will rival or even exceed the parade of sovereignties that so threatened the Russian Federation 25 years ago and that could, the Moscow commentator says, lead to the disintegration of the country in the near future.

Gorevoy’s article is significant for three reasons.

  • First, it is an indication of just how much politicking is going on behind the scenes between Moscow and Kazan over the extension of the 2007 accord that was adopted to replace one developed in the immediate aftermath of the demise of the USSR.
  • Second, it suggests just how nervous some in Moscow are that other non-Russian republics are watching what happens with this accord and may be preparing to demand similar arrangements if Tatarstan wins through to promote their agendas such as declaring their titular nationality the “state-forming” people of the republic.
  • And third, his article represents a rare but important acknowledgement by someone in Moscow that the threat of separatism and disintegration is not confined to non-Russian republics but emanates as well from predominantly Russian ones and that the latter are now likely to follow the former in pursuing greater autonomy or even independence when they can.

Gorevoy writes that everyone except people in the Kremlin understands that if you arrange dominoes in a row and knock over the first one, the others will fall. And that is just what will happen, he suggests, if Moscow agrees to extend the power-sharing arrangement with Tatarstan.

At present, Tatarstan is the only republic to have such an agreement in force. Even Chechnya doesn’t have one. But that is only “for the moment,” Gorevoy says. If the Moscow-Kazan accord is extended, then not only non-Russian republics but many predominantly-Russian oblasts and krays will want the same thing.

And it is all too clear just why Tatarstan wants this accord, Gorevy continues. When Vladimir Putin gave former Tatarstan President Mintimir Shaymiyev a map of 17th century Tataria, the Kremlin leader did so to make the point that Tatarstan has been an integral part of Russia for a long time.

Shaymiyev may have taken Putin’s message as intended. But back in Tatarstan, many read it “in their own way. Rafael Khakimov, vice president of the Tatarstan Academy of Sciences, for instance, reacted to the gift by saying that “Tatarstan today is small but at one time it was so big!”

Moreover, the former political advisor to Shaymiyev added, “Tataria is the real basis on which the Russian Empire arose.” And the presentation of this map shows that some in Moscow are beginning “finally” to recognize this reality and even to think about a future in which Tatarstan will be much more important than now.

That attitude is not new, Gorevoy says. “In August 1990, the deputies of the Supreme Soviet of the autonomous republic adopted a declaration about state sovereignty” without any agreement with Moscow and in which there was no mention of Tatarstan being a constituent part of the RSFSR or USSR.

Then in December 1991, he continues, Kazan “adopted a declaration about the inclusion of Tatarstan in the CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States – an loose association of states created in place of the USSR — Ed.] as one of its creators,” an action that was followed by a referendum in which more than 60 percent of the republic’s population voted for Tatarstan to become a self-standing subject of international law.

In March 1992, Kazan refused to sign the federative agreement of the Russian Federation, and in May 1992, it proclaimed Tatarstan a sovereign state. Two years later, it pulled back slightly and in 1994 signed an agreement with Russia as “an associated state with confederal status.”

Only in April 2002 did Tatarstan’s State Council adopt a new version of the republic’s constitution to bring it into line with the Russian Federation Constitution. But “nevertheless,” Gorvevoy points out, “in 2007, Moscow and Kazan extended the agreement about the delimitation of authority” between the two.

Now, ten years later, Tatarstan’s “local elites are insisting that the treaty be extended again with the preservation of the post of [republic] president and a confederal status” for the republic with the Russian Federation. But just as in the 1990s, other republic and regional elites are watching what Moscow will do.

In Boris Yeltsin’s time, after the signing of the Tatarstan treaty, more than 40 other such accords were signed with 46 Russian subjects in the ensuing four years. This “bacchanalia,” Gorevoy says, “ended when in July 1998, Vladimir Putin replaced Shakhray as deputy head of the presidential administration.”

Since then, not a single new one has been signed and, except for Tatarstan, all of these accords have either been denounced or allowed to lapse. Russian officials in 2007 explained their willingness to extend the accord with Kazan by saying they didn’t want to make any dramatic moves. But the real reason was to avoid problems before a presidential election.

In the years since, however, Moscow has comforted itself with the idea that “the problem of regional separatism on the whole has exhausted itself” and that it can ignore this threat. But that is a mistake, the Moscow commentator says, as events in Sakha, Buryatia, and Kaliningrad among others show.

The Sakha Republic has declared the titular nationality there as the indigenous people. Buryatia has been bubbling with nationalist aspirations. And Kaliningrad has become a hotbed of regionalist and secessionist sentiment. But instead of taking a tough line, Moscow has made concessions, as in Buryatia by putting an ethnic Buryat in as republic head last week.

That makes Moscow’s decision on the Tatarstan treaty especially important is, because if it prolongs the accord, Gorevoy says, other non-Russian republics and then Russian regions will line up to demand the same. And if that happens, the dominoes will start falling, something the center could avoid by taking a hard line now.


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Edited by: A. N.

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  • Victor Victory

    The Russian spy Flynn has resigned who will Putin demand to be his replacement?

    • Mephisto

      Kissinger, another Russian rat

      • Victor Victory

        That mutt is 93 years old he’ll die soon :)

        • Mephisto

          old, but still kicking :-)

      • Dagwood Bumstead

        Kissinger is ga-ga. And I’m not sure Congress would agree with him being given any function.

    • Dagwood Bumstead

      Steve Bannon, no doubt.

    • Alex George

      Flynn out, which is good. There are plenty of others who can do the job. Trump got a good choice for Defence in Mattis, surely he can get someone just as good for Nat Sec.

      As long as the trump team keep Page, Stone and Manafort away from the government, as well as Flynn. They all look guilty as heck of colluding with the Kremlin.

      Manafort says he might have talked with FSB but wouldn’t have known. He would have worked it out.

  • Tony

    Kazakhstan should take note of recent events(moscow is starting to say that north Kazakhstan is mostly ethnic russian, next they will claim human rights abuses of said people, then invade to “protect” them) and facilitate this destabilization of russia every way they can. Actually every russian neighbor should do this as their future territorial integrity depends on it.

  • Alex George

    “Moreover, the former political advisor to Shaymiyev added, “Tataria is the real basis on which the Russian Empire arose”.”

    Never a truer word. The mongol Golden Horde destroyed the cities of Northern Rus in 1238, including the rather insignificant town of Moscow. What arose on the ruins of Moscow was more a Tatar town than a Slavic one, although eventually it came to rule many slavic subjects. Muscovy became the local enforcer of the Golden Horde and then, some centuries later, replaced it.

    • Mephisto

      yes, Putin has some mongoloid features

      • Mykola Potytorsky

        actually he has alot

      • zorbatheturk

        Putin looks like a rodent.

        • Dagwood Bumstead

          That’s because the dwarf IS a rodent!

  • Alex George

    “And if that happens, the dominoes will start falling, something the center could avoid by taking a hard line now.”

    Its a bit late for that. The trade-offs began years ago. Chechnya is a good example – although nominally it has no special status, yet in fact it has been handed over to an islamic leader Kazyrov to impose Sharia law and other incidents of islamic culture, so long as he prevents any terrorist attacks on Moscow.

    Thus Chechnya is now only partly under the control of the Kremlin – more of an ally or a client state, rather than part of Russia

    • Dagwood Bumstead

      The FSB have NO control or influence whatsoever in Chechnya thanks to the dwarf’s deal with Kadyrov and the FSB leadership is anything but chuffed about this state of affairs. Basically Chechnya has become a state within a state with Kadyrov extending his tentacles into Dagestan and North Ossetia. There’s not much the dwarf can do about it without risking a break with Kadyrov and perhaps starting a third Chechen war, at a time when he has his hands full with Syria and the Donbas, and the Dwarstanian Treasury Chest approaching “Empty”.

      • Oknemfrod

        Sic!

  • Dagwood Bumstead

    Even more interesting is what will happen if the treaty ISN’T extended. Will Kazan stick to its guns and demand its extension? Will Kazan secede unilaterally if the dwarf refuses? Will the dwarf send in the tanks if Kazan actually secedes, starting a new war like the Chechen wars????
    It begins to look like a case of “The dwarf is damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t.”

    • Tony

      I’m afraid that russians have no balls and don’t value liberty or freedom. Thus, cynically I expect them to roll over.

      • туфтуф

        Ergo, l expect that u expect China to roll over for the same reasons?
        Lolz

        • Alex George

          That makes no sense – sounds like you are just trying to deflect again. China isn’t a party to this agreement.

          Putin is likely to roll over, because really, what choice does he have? Its like Chechnya, – he has no choice but to accept whatever Kadyrov does.

          • туфтуф

            No demoncracy-roll over. Or not? Lolz

          • Alex George

            And again, your random reply indicates that you are just trying to deflect.

            Putin is likely to roll over, because really, what choice does he have? Its like Chechnya, – he has no choice but to accept whatever Kadyrov does.

      • Alex George

        In fairness, Putin has little room to move. He cannot have internal warfare. That;s why he rolled over to Kadyrov and the Chechens.

    • туфтуф

      Kazan is sovereign Russian terrotory, just like Crimea. It was also illegally taken away from Tatars like Crimea was from ukroland or America from red Indians. That it happened in the past has no bearing to legality. Energy problems of Kazan are blown out of proportion, just like energy problems of Crimea in Ukro press.

      • Alex George

        Why is any of that relevant?

        The issue is whether the Kremlin will continue to give Kazan the agreement. Going by past performance, it will. The Kremlin’s hand is weak, and it knows it.

        Its all just part of the Russian federation slowly coming apart.

        • туфтуф

          It is cuz ukronazis lay claim to it. But the intl law stands on their way, otherwise they wld have conquered Russia in 2014. Lolz

          • Alex George

            Ha ha, are you seriously so ignorant as to think Ukraine lays claim to Kazan or Moscow?

            Here is my post again, as you obviously didn’t read it before replying:

            The issue is whether the Kremlin will continue to give Kazan the agreement. Going by past performance, it will. The Kremlin’s hand is weak, and it knows it.

            Its all just part of the Russian federation slowly coming apart.

          • туфтуф

            Not Moscow. Kazan- yes.

          • Alex George

            LOL Sorry, my poor desperate lying friend, Ukraine makes no claim to Kazan, Moscow or anywhere else outside of Ukraine, and you know it.

            You are just trying to distract attention from the reality in the article, that Moscow shares power with the rulers of Kazan, and it will very likely continue to do so, because it has no choice about the matter.

          • туфтуф

            Not UKRAINE but my ukronazi friends. Shld they come into power, they will definitely die trying to win territories mythically belonging to their ancestors. Some say that Poroshenko surrounded nazis who are blockading Donbass by special forces in order to smoke them out of power. I dnt know what the truth is.

          • Alex George

            You have no Ukrainian friends, nazi or otherwise, just as you do not know any separatist leaders or senior intelligence figures etc etc. You are just a lying old windbag who tries to make himself seem important.

            Ukraine does not cover the lands of others, whereas Russia most certainly does . And as a result of its greed, it will end up with nothing.

          • туфтуф

            I agree that gvt doesnt. But nazis do. I can copy/paste my convos with Olena.

          • Alex George

            LOL Your “conversations with Olena” are meaningless.

            Ukraine makes no claim to Kazan, Moscow or anywhere else outside of Ukraine, and you know it.

            You are just trying to distract attention from the reality in the article, that Moscow shares power with the rulers of Kazan, and it will very likely continue to do so, because it has no choice about the matter.

        • туфтуф

          Course it will. It gives energy to all its lands. My friend living in Yakutia (-60C) walks with no clothes in his flat. Inside temp +35C. Window permanently open.

          • Alex George

            Now you are just trying to deflect again by trying to divert the debate onto just energy.

            The issue is whether the Kremlin will continue to give Kazan the agreement. Going by past performance, it will. The Kremlin’s hand is weak, and it knows it.

            Its all just part of the Russian federation slowly coming apart.

  • zorbatheturk

    Less ruSSiya is more good news for everyone. It is time to peel more layers off the Soviet Onion.

    • туфтуф

      Soviet Union was unconstitutionally broken, therefore legally, it still exists. This is why Putin, mixing legal and illegal means, works on restoring it. And he ( or a general who succeeds him) will accomplish the task. Ukraine is too integrated into Soviet or Eurasian union that it simply cannot break away. The iron embrace of Moscow.

      • Dagwood Bumstead

        Try selling that line to the Ukrainians, or the Baltics for that matter. They will question your sanity, and rightly so.
        NOT ONE of the former SSRs questions the legality of the breakup, from Armenia to Uzbekistan. Only the demented Pedo Putolini does, but what does he know about legality?
        And NOT ONE of the former SSRs will voluntarily join Dwarfstan to form a USSR Mk. II. Not even Lukashenko and Nazarbaev, who are supposedly the dwarf’s closest allies, will do so.

        • туфтуф

          No one is sellin anything. They re ENFORCING. Big dif.

          • Alex George

            Who is enforcing? Not the Kremlin. Its attempts to enforce in Ukraine ground to a halt in Donbass.

            Anyone else?

          • туфтуф

            If u say they re not enforcing, you negate the whole propaganda concept of Russian aggression. Think b4 u write.

          • Alex George

            Why? I am simply pointing out the truth – the Kremlin is not enforcing anything. Its trying to, but that is not the same thing.

            In order to enforce, you must have strength. Not just bluster, like Putin does.

          • туфтуф

            Enfircing the war in ukroland? Or not? U r right in a way, but only as regards Crimea. It was voluntarily given away.

          • Alex George

            No, I am simply pointing out the truth – the Kremlin is not enforcing anything. Its trying to, but that is not the same thing.

            In order to enforce, you must have strength. Not just bluster, like Putin does.

          • туфтуф

            So no Ruski aggression then?

          • Alex George

            Of course there is Russian aggression. But that does not mena Russia is enforcing anything. It needs an effective army to do that, not one based on poorly trained and badly led soft Russian boys.

        • туфтуф

          Intl law must be obeyed, otherwise, we re no diff than animals.

          • Alex George

            Exactly, hence why Russia will inevitably break up .

          • туфтуф

            Breaking up means breaking intl law. Preservation of sovereignty means upholding the law. Yawwwn.

          • Alex George

            Even if that were true, so what? Yawwwn

          • туфтуф

            Are u an animal in need of RSPCA? We go down as mankind if we strip ourselves of laws.

          • Alex George

            Which is exactly why Russia will break up. Those who flout laws pay the penalty.

          • туфтуф

            If we say so what, we are setting precedents. Animal kingdom emerging. Dehumanization.

          • Alex George

            Rubbish. You haven’t shown how “breaking up means breaking international law” and in fact it doesn’t. Nor have you shown how it is relevant.

          • Dagwood Bumstead

            What would the dwarf know about international law? He tore up international law when he sent Girkin and his fellow “little green men” into first the Crimea and then the Donbas.

          • туфтуф

            No matter, intl law shld be binding to every country, and especially great powers who can do a lot of damage.

          • Alex George

            Of course, which is why Russia must leave Donbass and Crimea, and why it will inevitably break apart if it does not.

          • туфтуф

            Green men were necessary. They not only kept peace and crared away the nazi frienfship trains, but acted persuasively that ukro soldiers either leave in peace or join the Russian army. Many did both. Further, they destroyed the contact between Kiev and ukroarmy, thereby rendering it helpless and headless. Furthermore, they saved President Yanukovich, then legal president of ukraine from a certain death at the hands of the maidan militants. The green men’s positive role shld not be underestimated.

          • Alex George

            Green men did nothing except point their weapons at civilians and terrorize them. The theft of Crimea was arranged by the FSB in concert with traitors among the Ukrainian military leaders, who can now never live in Ukraine.

            Russia has no right to Crimea and will be forced to give it up. Everything it has made there belongs to Ukraine.

      • Alex George

        Two years ago you might have been right . But Ukraine has been busy breaking off many ties.

        • туфтуф

          Too busy for the health of its ppl. It is ukro genocide comited by ukros, assisted by global powers.

          • Alex George

            LMAO So according to you, breaking off corrupt trade ties with Russia is “genocide”? You are a complete idiot.

          • туфтуф

            Had they not bought coal from Russia during the self blockade, -20C temperatures kill.

          • Alex George

            You silly man, do you seriously think Ukraine can’t get coal from elsewhere?

          • туфтуф

            Yorge adelfe mou (means George, my brother in Greek, but transliterated into Latin alohabet cus otherwise it would be all Greek to you, you ignorant hick), b4 u go for foodstamps, l BEG u throw this into translate. U will not find it anywhere but right here. Cnt be bothered to translate it 4 u.

            Участники блокады ДНР и ЛНР сообщили о подготовке к штурму их блокпостов украинским спецназом
            17 февраля 2017

            Блокпост ветеранов “АТО” “Редут Запорожье” под Артемовском окружен спецподразделениями украинской полиции, – об этом сообщает “Штаб блокады” на своей странице в Facebook. Как сообщается, на место прибыл “спецназ главка МВД Донецкой области и бывший “Беркут””.

            “Есть все признаки подготовки к штурму, в свою очередь гарнизон редута “Запорожье” занял боевые позиции и подготовился к отражению штурма. Штаб предупреждает должностных лиц МВД, которые принимали участие в планировании операции, а также тех, кто будет выполнять преступные приказы. Если в результате ваших преступных действий прольется кровь наших боевых побратимов – вы лично будете отвечать перед теми, кто останется в живых!”

            – говорится в сообщении участников блокады.

          • Alex George

            That’s alright, I can’t be bothered to read it. And sorry to keep reminding you, but you do;t know any Greek, just as virtually everything else you claim to know is false. You have no sources. You are just an old windbag who wishes he was important.

            You foolishly wrote that “genocide” is happening in Ukraine, yet have been unable to point to a single death.

            And you have complained about Ukraine cutting trade, cultural and economic ties with Russia, even though that is the smartest thing Ukraine can do if it wishes to be free and prosperous.

          • туфтуф

            Adelfos mou is not Greek? Mad.

          • Alex George

            If you say so. But my point which you are trying to deflect is that you don’t know any Greek, just as virtually everything else you claim to know is false. You have no sources. You are just an old windbag who wishes he was important.

            You foolishly wrote that “genocide” is happening in Ukraine, yet have been unable to point to a single death.

            And you have complained about Ukraine cutting trade, cultural and economic ties with Russia, even though that is the smartest thing Ukraine can do if it wishes to be free and prosperous.

      • zorbatheturk

        Moscow is sheetscum.

  • туфтуф

    Hello proto ukros! My friend writes from Ukraine. He is not pro Russian, but fiercly criticises Ukraine energy policy. I will include his musings in Russian for those willing to delve deeper into the truth, but will in short try to convey his message. Ukraine cannot buy gas directly from Russia coz R is the aggressor. It however CAN allow gas transport from Russia to Czech republic, from which it is buying the SAME gas for a higher price. Blocading Donbass, it now cannot buy coal necessary for power plants from there, but buys it FROM THE AGGRESSOR DIRECTLY) cus in South Africa they have other contracts and cannot serve Ukraine. The final author’s words are smth like “blocade of brain”. Paste:Блокада

    Патриоты блокируют поставки угля, чтобы предотвратить финансирование террористов, которые на самом деле российские войска, которые без этого финансирования не смогут воевать. Но блокада в интересах России, которой выгодно, чтобы уголь поставлялся не из Донбасса, который она оккупирует, а прямо из России. Правительство говорит, что страна без донецкого угля не выживет, но блокировать его поставки не мешает, потому что блокаду осуществляют воины подразделений МВД и депутаты из правящей коалиции, которые избивают сотрудников МВД, которые пытаются блокаду снять. А Донбасс нужно вернуть, потому что там наши люди, но поставлять туда лекарства и еду нельзя, потому что они террористы.
    Выплачивать в Донбасс пенсии нельзя, потому что это финансирует терроризм, но покупать там уголь можно, потому что иначе страна не выживет. В России покупать газ напрямую нельзя, потому что Россия агрессор, которого нельзя финансировать, но если покупать через Словакию и дороже, то можно и нужно, потому что иначе страна не выживет.
    Российские войска атакуют исключительно через линию фронта и укрепления, потому что остальная граница надёжно защищена проволочной стеной. Обстреливать Донбасс нужно, потому что там российские войска и идёт война, а обстреливать Крым нельзя, потому что там российские войска и тогда будет война. Но война с Россией у нас идёт, и Запад помогает нам деньгами, потому что он на нашей стороне, но только официально у нас войны нет, потому что тогда Запад не даст нам денег. Гражданской войны у нас нет, потому что против нас воюет Россия, но когда российско-террористические военнослужащие попадают в плен, то оказываются гражданами Украины, потому что война гибридная. И мы стреляем по жилым кварталам Донецка, потому что террористы стреляют из жилых кварталов, а сами мы стреляем из жилых кварталов Авдеевки, потому что… Стреляем, потому что стреляем.

    Это не блокада угля, это блокада мозга.

    #Некроина
    #Дебилы
    #сраныймайдан

    • Alex George

      Not quite. Certainly the gas that Ukraine buys from Europe contains some Russian gas. But its not all, or even mostly Russian. Remember Russia now only supplies 30% of Europe’s gas needs and the proportion drops each year. The gas which Ukraine buys contains plenty from Norway and other sources.

      And no, even when its Russian gas, its not necessarily more expensive. Spot prices move all the time – a country that bought a large amount from Russia last week at a low price may sell some of it to Ukraine who needs it this week, but the Russian spot price is now higher.

      And then there are the eastern european issues – Russia’s previous unreliabiiity as a supplier (i.e. it used gas supply for geopolitical pressure) which all adds to the eventual cost. Plus of course Russian price gouging when it had a virtual monopoly to countries like Ukraine, Latvia etc. Overall, its cheaper in the end to buy through europe.

      • туфтуф

        Ok 30 pc russian, but the whole 100 pc of ukro gas consumption much more expensive than if it all came from rusland. Had ukros not been stealing Russian property that flows accross their land, the average apt temperature in Kiev wld not be even 13 C. Thats like sleeping rough in London in March.

        • Alex George

          You clearly have no idea what the “average temperature” in Kyiv homes is, let alone even what it was in Avdiika when Russian shelling cut the heating. Learn some fact before posting again, old man.

          And sorry, but Russian gas is now cheaper for Ukraine than when it bought from Russia. That is because:

          * Russia can no longer price-gouge; and
          * Russia can no longer cut off gas without warning for political purposes, thus adding to the cost of the contract.

          Now the only thing left is for Russia to pay the damages that it owes to Ukraine.

          • туфтуф

            Now u got me by the…..lolz

          • Dagwood Bumstead

            Savushkina trolls have been neutered- job requirement- so we can’t have you by the…….

          • туфтуф

            Bumstead is spelled Bunstead, you ignorant hick. Now crawl out of ur trailer home and get some food stamps. And keep the bum steady even if someone makes a pass at u in social services.

          • Alex George

            Ha ha, poor old Tuphie is angry and shows it. ;o)

            He simply told the truth, so don’t go blaming him.

          • туфтуф

            R u keeping ur bummy bum steady?

          • Dagwood Bumstead

            And to get the hell out of the Donbas and the Crimea forever.

  • Alex George

    “The Sakha Republic has declared the titular nationality there as the indigenous people. Buryatia has been bubbling with nationalist aspirations. And Kaliningrad has become a hotbed of regionalist and secessionist sentiment. But instead of taking a tough line, Moscow has made concessions, as in Buryatia by putting an ethnic Buryat in as republic head last week.”

    True, and of course there are the power sharing arrangements with Chechnya and Tatarstan. But the Kremlin has no choice about this – it is so committed to foolish overseas ventures that it cannot afford any sort of dispute with its federated republics.

    • Dagwood Bumstead

      Those concessions by the dwarf are just the start of an avalanche of concessions.