Read also: Savchenko free, Russians furious and confused
Putin’s awareness of this is reflected in the treatment of the two Russian soldiers who were swept away from public view as quietly as possible when they arrived in Moscow, unlike Nadia who made a one-woman victory march through Kyiv before thousands of enthusiastic Ukrainians. Putin did not give up Nadiya without a thought about how it served his larger purpose. Possibly, the West made it clear that Minsk II could not advance without Nadiya’s release, and Putin buckled. But, possibly, also, there is an understanding already between the West and Russia about how Nadiya’s release will lead to next steps to unwind the conflict. News reports at the time of Nadiya’s release that the “The Kremlin supports Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's wish ‘to return Donbas’ for humanitarian reasons” may be a tiny scent of something more in the air. Either way, it doesn’t matter. Putin has started down this road because he needs an exit—and well before the 2018 presidential election. Although most Russians still support his imperialist ambitions, the Russian economy is Putin’s Achille’s heel. The headline GDP number is not falling as fast as last year, but underlying indicators, such as sales and consumption, are still in freefall. GDP is reported to have fallen by only -1.2% in the first quarter of 2016. However, real wages fell by -1.7%, retail sales by -4.8%, and disposable income by -7.1%. The export sector, including military sales, may slow the fall in the headline GDP number, but it isn’t enough to turn the economy around and the risks are to the downside. Alexei Kudrin, now deputy chair of the Russian Presidential Economic Council, believes the economy has hit bottom but there is no evidence it will grow. Wages will still go unpaid or fall. Working hours will be reduced. Wages and pensions will not be indexed to inflation, which remains high enough to erode the average Russian’s sense of economic security. The appointment of Kudrin as a deputy means he can argue for reform from within Putin’s administration, but he can’t command the reforms to happen. This suggests that Kudrin’s appointment is more about using his prominence to take the steam out of opposition criticism of the economy before this fall’s parliamentary election, without actually doing anything. His ideas will in any case be strongly opposed by others resulting in policy gridlock. True patriots, Russians welcomed easy victories to restore Russian glory and even tightened their belts to weather the passing storm, but they did not sign on for continually falling wages and pensions. And they did not sign on for retreat from Russian glory. Nadiya’s release signals Putin’s opening gambit in dialing down the Ukraine conflict so that he can project normalcy to the West and relieve Russia’s isolation (while continuing more subtle forms of subversion; after all, the big game is still in play). However, each retreat from what has been acclaimed as restoring Russia power and glory will suck air out from under Putin’s wings and bring him quickly to earth.Related:
- Putin accelerating his plan for long-term confrontation with the West, Illarionov says
- Putin's reign of terror: "Cossacks" attack Navalny, women & children as Russia's police watch
- Putin elite's anti-Americanism older and more deeply held than that of other Russians (Study)
- Chekist regime and criminal world in Russia now 'completely coincide,' Portnikov says
- Friday May 13th was Putin's Kristallnacht, Russian political refugee says
- Putin government now behaves like 'any other occupation regime,' Moscow commentator says
- WWII. Now the occupier is Putin not Hitler
- The price for a clear conscience in Russia
- Kremlin reads the West wrong but the West is beginning to read Russia right, Shevtsova says
