Gotland – the Danzig of our time

Russia is coming

Russia is coming 

2015/03/22 • Military analysis

Over the past 12 months Russia’s air force has flown a series of aggressive combat patrols over the Baltic Sea, including mock nuclear strikes against Sweden’s capital Stockholm, in order to assess the reaction time and preparedness of Sweden’s air force. Since October 2014, Russia’s Navy has sent submarines into Swedish territorial waters to gauge the capabilities and test the preparedness of Sweden’s Navy. The conclusion: Sweden is defenseless.

Last week Russia’s air force progressed from testing Sweden’s military preparedness to dry runs for a major air assault. A combination of transport planes and fighter jets flew from Russia over the entire Baltic Sea to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. While Sweden didn’t even manage to get a plane in the air, Italian air force jets flying out from Šiauliai air base in Lithuania intercepted and identified the Russian jets. The Italian fighters were outnumbered 4 to 1.

The obvious targets of Russian aggression along the Baltic Sea, namely Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, all share a land border with Russia, therefore there is no need for Russia to mount a large scale air assault when attacking these tiny states. However, once occupied, Putin must keep the US air force and the US Navy out of the Baltic Sea, if he wants to keep the three Baltic states occupied and oppressed. This is why Russia is preparing to assault, occupy and fortify Sweden’s Gotland Island.

If Russia were to take Gotland and base S-300 or S-400 long range air-defense and K-300P Bastion-P long range anti-ship missile systems on the island, then US air force planes would not be able reach the Baltic States and US Navy ships could not pass the Danish Straits to enter the Baltic Sea. Russia already has S-300 and K-300P, alongside tactical nuclear 9K720 Iskander missiles, stationed in Kaliningrad, but as Poland’s military could destroy Russia’s anti-ship and air-defense systems there, Russia must occupy Gotland a few hours before an attack on Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania begins. And this is how Russia intends to win this war:

The coming field of battle.

The coming field of battle.

Putin orders Russia’s military to perform another round of large scale maneuvers. NATO as usual monitors these maneuvers, but refrains from taking any proactive, such as raising its own state of readiness to avoid “provoking Russia”. Just as in earlier maneuvers the three Ropucha-class landing ships of the Baltic Fleet leave Kronstadt harbor to train “shipping vehicles and material to Kaliningrad”. During the night, when the people of Gotland are in bed, Special Forces from Russia’s 561st Naval Reconnaissance Spetsnaz Group, dropped off earlier by Russian submarines, attack all communications nodes on the island to sever mobile phone, internet and telephone connections with mainland Sweden, to not only prevent the Swedish government from being alerted, but also to prevent civilians from uploading images and videos of the coming brutal occupation of the island.

With all key installations diligently mapped in advance by Russian spies disguised as tourists the men of the 561st Naval Reconnaissance Spetsnaz Group set out to prepare the landing zones for the paratroopers of the Russian Airborne Forces. Meanwhile the Ropucha-class ships leave their course towards Kaliningrad and now head straight for Northern Gotland. A task force consisting of Russian air force transport planes and fighter jets carrying a regiment of paratroopers enters the Northern Baltic Sea and is picked up by Estonian radar operators, which alert NATO’s air policing units at Šiauliai. Two fighter jets are immediately scrambled to intercept the Russian air group, whose size is unknown as Russian radar jamming planes accompany it.

After 15 minutes the NATO planes reach the Russian air group over the Northern Baltic Sea and report its astonishing size back to base. As the two NATO fighters are forbidden to interfere unless the Russians enter NATO airspace, they only observe. At this moment the Russians are only 150km from Gotland, 12 minutes from dropping at least a thousand paratroopers.

By now Russian Special Forces have taken control of Gotland’s airport at Visby: air traffic controllers have been eliminated, communications with Sweden severed and the runway illuminated. As everywhere on Gotland the Russians face no resistance as Sweden has zero active troops on Gotland. Not a single active unit is based on the island: no air defense, no land defense, no naval defense, nothing to at all to stop the Russians. Except for a few armed policemen, no one is on duty during the night. The local Swedish Home Guard unit, the 32nd Gotland Battalion, consisting of about 300 volunteers, isn’t combat ready, as its members are in bed with their weapons stored at the battalion’s base, which Russian Spetsnaz have already taken over.

Back in Sweden the air force finally realizes that the Russian air group is heading for Gotland, but as it is a weekend the Swedish air force does not have fighters on Quick Reaction Alert and as the closest air base is 250km away it is already too late. Russian paratroopers are dropped over key locations, while heavy transport planes carrying S-300 and K-300P batteries land at Visby airport. Within minutes Gotland is in Russian hands. At a beach in Gotland’s North near Fårösund the Ropuchas unload main battle tanks and BTR-82AM wheeled infantry fighting vehicles of the 61st Marine Brigade. Civilian ferries enter Gotland’s harbors and unload additional reinforcements.

As Russian troops round up all people on Gotland considered to be a risk to Russia’s occupation, the Swedish cabinet meets in Stockholm. Russia’s ambassador informs the Swedish government that Russia has taken “temporarily” possession of Gotland to protect Russian speakers in the Baltic States from “fascist NATO aggression”. Sweden is told to acquiesce to the fait accompli.

Now the Swedish government discovers that it has no possibility to resist, as 25 years of destroying its own armed forces have left Sweden defenseless: the Swedish Navy s surface combatants all lack a close-in weapon system (CIWS) capable of destroying incoming anti-ship missiles and there are just nine of them, which will be sunk either by Russian anti-ship missiles fired from Gotland, underwater mines dropped by Russian submarines just outside Swedish naval bases, or Russian submarines lurking outside those very same bases. Sweden’s excellent submarines can’t leave harbor because of the mines and even if they could would make just easy prey for the lurking Russian submarines. As Sweden sold its anti-submarine helicopters its navy is thus completely stuck in its bases with no chance to take to the sea. Swedish air force fighter jets can’t take to the air, as both main bases in Southern Sweden lie within reach of the S-300 batteries on Gotland. And if Sweden decided to mount a serious amphibious landing on Gotland by sending all its 100+ Stridsbåt90 fast assault boats, each carrying 18 troops, Sweden would need days to assemble this force, days during which Russian transport planes could fly a full Russian airborne division with its armored vehicles, tanks and artillery to Gotland.

But events on Gotland are just a minor blip on this day, as at sunbreak Russian troops have already crossed the borders of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to “free the people” of these three nations from their “fascist governments”. NATO’s Šiauliai air base is flattened within minutes by Russian OTR-21 Tochka missiles fired from Kaliningrad and the few NATO planes taking to the skies are quickly shot down by Russia’s S-300 batteries in Kaliningrad, thus giving Russia air supremacy over the Baltic States and sea.

Russian armored columns cut through the three nations with ease, as their militaries are small and have neither tanks nor air-defense systems nor attack helicopters. By Noon NATO ambassadors finally meet in Brussels. The ambassadors of the three Baltic States declare that their nations are under attack and request the activation of article 5. Poland, the UK, Denmark, Norway, Canada, France, the US and a few others agree and want to give NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe free reign to beat back the Russians and liberate the Baltic States. But Turkey, Greece, Germany and a few others refuse. Especially Germany is most likely to stall, referencing the “need to talk”, the necessity “not to provoke Russia”, the need to give Putin an “off ramp” among other bullcrap. Ultimately Germany might block a decision by stating it must first consult its parliament about invoking article 5.

If this happens then the United States, United Kingdom, Poland, France, Norway, Denmark and Norway will act on their own. Polish fighter jets take to the skies, Danish, British, French jets follow, but Germany could refuse NATO allies the use of its airspace and go so far as to block US jets from leaving American air bases in Germany. Thus leaving Poland to go in first and go in alone. As the ordered American AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles have not yet been delivered, Polish fighters must enter the S-300 system’s range over Kaliningrad and attempt to take them out with shorter range AGM-154 JSOWs. A costly endeavor for Poland’s small air force, even though the Polish Army’s 11th Artillery Regiment continuously shells known Russian air-defense positions in Kaliningrad with its WR-40 Langusta multiple rocket launchers.

By evening Russian forces patrol the three Baltic nation’s capitals and begin rounding up everyone considered hostile to Russia. Communications with the rest of the world are cut and “popular committees” have “suddenly” sprung up to thank Russia “for its timely salvation from NATO fascism”. Russian TV shows “thankful Baltic citizens”, already known to all from their previous appearances as “thankful Donbas citizens”, who recount the “horrors they suffered from the fascist Baltic-NATO hordes”. Meanwhile, Baltic military and government officials, who had access to top secret NATO information, are flown to Moscow to be interrogated and tortured by the GRU.


America’s great airlift begins.

All night long Allied air forces try to break through to the Baltic States and even though S-300 and other air defense systems in Kaliningrad have been greatly reduced, the ones on Gotland continue to shoot down allied planes. The United States begins an airlift of combat forces to Poland and hundreds of fighter jets and transport planes cross the Atlantic. Dozens of heavy Bombers land on English bases and are readied for strikes. The allies ask Sweden for permission to strike Russian position on Gotland. The US even offers to send the II Marine Expeditionary Force to retake Gotland for Sweden, but Russia’s ambassador to Sweden announces that if Sweden were to let allied forces cross its territory Sweden would become a target for nuclear strikes. The same warning is given by Russian ambassadors to other European nations, especially to Denmark and Poland: if Denmark allows a US maritime task force passage through the Danish straits, said task force would be hit by a nuclear strike just off the coast of Copenhagen, incinerating the city along with the US ships; and if Poland were to allow the US to assemble armored divisions on its territory Russia would strike these staging areas with nuclear armed Iskander missiles fired from Kaliningrad.

By the next morning Poland’s air force is badly decimated, while its 16th Mechanized Division is engaged in heavy combat with Russian forces along Kaliningrad’s border. The first reinforcement from Poland’s 11th Armored Cavalry Division and 12th Mechanized Division arrive, but Russian forces arrive at the front in even greater numbers while Russian artillery shells Polish forces from Belarusian territory, preventing Poland from returning fire. Likewise, Russian fighter planes use Belarusian air bases to refuel and rearm, but cross into Polish airspace via Lithuanian airspace preventing Poland from attacking the bases in “neutral” Belarus.

Meanwhile, in the forests of the Baltic States, Russian Special Forces are executing thousands of people to eliminate all possible resistance before it can sprout. High profile politicians are spared (for now) and parliamentarians are threatened with execution if they do not assemble to vote for a new pro-Russian government. By Noon all three Baltic nations have new pro-Russian governments made up of Quislings and other collaborationist scum, which have all been recruited in advance by Russian intelligence agencies.

The next day Germany’s press is full of Russia’s bought sellouts and useful idiots warning that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons if NATO intervenes. The same happens in Sweden, where hundreds of Russian spies and bought traitors demand that Sweden remain neutral and allow Russia “temporary” possession of Gotland; “Resistance is futile” they say. Meanwhile the three Baltic ambassadors to NATO call for an urgent meeting at which they announce that their nations withdraw the motion to invoke article 5. Even though all NATO ambassadors present know that the three Baltic ambassadors are acting under Russian threats to execute their captured families, Germany, besides Turkey and Greece the nation most likely to go full treacherous, demands that all sides cease combat operations immediately. The US and its valiant allies refuse to abandon the Baltics and thus NATO is destroyed.

By nightfall of the second day Russia has occupied and fortified Gotland, occupied Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and destroyed, via its European proxies, NATO. Putin’s main war goal has thus been achieved: NATO is no more. Now Russia must secure its conquests: Sweden, emasculated by having no armed forces, with 57,000 citizens taken hostage on Gotland, and undermined by a plethora of Russian spies, ultimately surrenders to Russian demands and allows Russia to occupy Gotland while denying allied forces to strike Russian positions there, thus closing the Danish Straits for good.

With the allies unable to ship reinforcement to Poland and with Germany closing its territory for allied flights and transports, the only nation Russia must knock out to win this war is Poland. As Russia is hopelessly outgunned by the US military, even more so if NATO would have stuck together, and as Russia cannot hope to blackmail nuclear powers like France, the UK and the US, Russia’s military doctrine demands to threaten non-nuclear nations with nuclear strikes and thus prevent them from resisting Russian aggression. The word Russia uses for such strikes is “de-escalation”. That’s Russian thinking: we de-escalate by nuking a city and killing 100,000 people. I kid you not. Russia’s official policy is to nuke nations that resist, which in Russia’s insane, brutal view is a “de-escalation”.

Therefore, on the morning of the third day Russia issues a warning to Poland to cease fire, stating correctly that Russian forces have not entered Polish territory and therefore Poland should stand down and not risk having one or more of its cities struck by a nuclear bomb for helping nations like Estonia, which have “greeted Russian forces as liberators”. But Poland, brave Poland, keeps fighting as more and more US troops arrive. And so on the afternoon of the third day Russia fires an Iskander missile at a Polish city. Łódź being the most likely target: far enough away from Russia and Germany to reduce the effects of nuclear fallout on these two indirectly allied nations and with enough population to kill 100,000 civilians with ease.

The world is in shock. Poland demands its allies retaliate by nuking a Russian city, but France, the UK and the US refuse. Nuking a Russian city would inevitably lead to a Russian counterstrike and thus nuclear Armageddon. Poland is abandoned. Poland thus must ceases fire and under tears subjugate to Russian demands of a demilitarized zone and elimination of its armored and air forces.

With NATO broken, the EU breaking apart, and nations bordering Russia cowing in fear, Putin will force Finland, Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Poland and others to join his Eurasian Economic Union, which is nothing but an euphemism for becoming colonies of the Kremlin once more. Having been betrayed by its former allies and unable to stomach nuclear war, the US will retreat from Europe and fade. While fascist movements, looking to Russia as new leader of the continent, will rise in Europe and voluntarily join their nations to Putin’s Reich.

And exactly this last paragraph is what Putin dreams about. This is his deepest wish. So he will wage this war. He planned to wage it later, around 2020 when the decade long rearmament of Russia’s military will be complete, but events in Ukraine forced him to act earlier. Many people believe this to be fantasy… you wish! Russia ordered Mistral ships from France for the explicit purpose to attack Gotland and Crimea. Right now Russia is deploying the forces it needs for this war to Kaliningrad. Russia is doing dry runs for this war every week. Russia is getting ready.

But Europe isn’t. Sweden plans to send 150 troops to Gotland sometime in the future… 150 men- a company, unlike during the Cold War when an entire armored brigade of 5000 men was garrisoned on Gotland. NATO did not forward deploy ground forces to the Baltic Nations, as I demanded over a year ago (!). Germany keeps blocking all sensible NATO preparations and even cut its defense spending in 2014 and in 2015. Merkel and Steinmeier, not content with having actively helped Putin dismember Ukraine, now forcefully push for NATO to be unprepared, by vetoing even planning for key operations in case Russia gears up to attack; like planning for NATO to occupy Gotland at the first whiff of Russian stirred hybrid war in the Baltic States.

Instead of arming Ukraine and thus forcing Russia to deploy large amounts of its troops there, Germany and other EU nations even block attempts by Ukraine to buy weapons, thus allowing Putin to keep 90% of his army free for a strike against the Baltic States. And when that strike comes, Germany is the most likely candidate to balk and wiggle out of its NATO commitments, because for Germans Eastern Europeans are still Untermenschen, as was evidenced by Germany’s nasty, arrogant and disgusting scolding of Poland, when Poland warned that Russia only built the North Stream gas pipeline to bypass Eastern European nations and thus allow it to blackmail and threaten them with its gas-weapon.

No German politician has admitted that the Poles were right then and that they are right again. Germans just don’t do excuses to Eastern Europeans, whose nations Germans devastated twice during the last century. Now Germans will devastate Eastern Europe a third time, by refusing to let NATO plan and prepare for the coming war. This war could still be prevented, but the costs have risen exponentially since last spring when much stronger sanctions and a forceful military demonstration would have still gotten through to Putin before he completely went into his alternate universe, as even Merkel had to admit. But even now Merkel and Germany are completely obsessed with the Greek debt crisis, a minor trifle, which, to Putin’s endless joy, distracts the entire German elite from Russia’s war preparations.

War is coming. It has been clear to the few true Russia experts since February 19th 2014, when Putin’s aide Vladislav Surkov arrived in Kyiv to coordinate the bloody attack on Euromaidan that left nearly 100 people dead the very next day. Nobody listened then, and now a further 6000 people are dead. Will somebody listen now? Certainly not in Germany, but here is what must be done, to make the above scenario unfeasible bloody for Putin’s generals:

Sweden must fortify Gotland, and if it can’t, then NATO must take it at the first whiff of Russian aggression. Better even if Sweden and Finland join NATO this minute, but Germany might block this idea, to “not provoke Putin”, just as it did block the deployment of strong deterrent forces to the Baltic States. Plans to ensure the governments of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania can be evacuated in case of Russian attacks need to be set in motion. If you wonder why they have been stalled so far, ask Merkel. Plans to update NATO’s nuclear weapons doctrine to warn Russia a nuclear strike against a NATO city would be retaliated with a similar strike against a similar Russian city need to be unblocked. If you wonder who blocked them, ask Merkel. Why have plans to preposition material and war stocks in Poland and the Baltics gone nowhere… well, she can give you the answer to that too. Suggestions to exclude defense spending from the German imposed 3% budget deficit limit in the EU – blocked by, yes, you know already who.

Under Merkel, Germany has become the undisputed leader among European nations, but unlikely earlier German governments, who used their power to promote peace in Europe by literally buying it with German Marks, Merkel’s government abuses its leading position to block others from doing the right thing. While Helmut Kohl’s government armed Croatia under attack by Serbia, Merkel blocks others from delivering weapons to Ukraine. While Helmut Kohl’s government actively supported Poland’s bid to become a NATO and EU member, Merkel obstructs the same for Ukraine and other nations. While Helmut Kohl’s government generously provided money to poor European nations to reduce the risk of them becoming failed states, Merkel is actively turning Greece into a failed state. The list goes on, but the gist is clear: Merkel does nothing to unite Europe, nothing to prepare Europe, nothing to strengthen Europe.

With allies like this my suggestion is that Poland speedily develops its own nuclear weapons, because the only known unknowns now are, which NATO members, besides Germany, will wiggle out of their commitment to common defense, and what scenario Russia will use to stir up trouble in the Baltic nations, which will then “force Putin” to deploy the Russian Armed Forces “to restore peace and order” and to beat back the “fascist Nazi hordes oppressing Russian speakers in the Baltic nations”. You still don’t believe me? Major European armies, when not preparing for intervention in Libya, are war gaming the above scenario, and even bleaker scenarios. All three Baltic nations are adding military capabilities as fast as they can to avoid being overrun before American reinforcements can arrive; and if you think there are no plans on Putin’s and Breedlove’s desk about occupying Gotland, then you don’t know war. And if there are still doubts in your mind, watch Russian TV for a day, where Putin’s propaganda for this war is already in full swing.

Enjoy your life while you can, and curse the moral cowards, who brought us to this.

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  • Calibra

    They have very good medicine against paranoia, you might want to see a doctor.

    Russia (Putin) doesn’t want to take the Baltics, even the people living there are leaving by the thousands per month as there is no future for them there, you might want to check the demographic development of the Baltics, they are draining dry, since 1992 the baltics have lost 20% of their population allready, give it another 25 years and the regiuon will be a economic disaster due to the deminishing population.

    • Dagwood Bumstead

      Rot! The demented dwarf wants ALL countries that were part of the USSR under his total control, whether the citizens want to be part of the Russkii Mir or not. The Baltics, together with Belarus, are next on his hit list.
      The article is dead right about Merkel, she’s absolutely useless. Sadly, the other German political “leaders” are even worse. There isn’t a Bismarck among them.

      • MrRainbowBotox

        “wants ALL countries that were part of the USSR under his total control” and that includes East-Germany!

      • caap02

        and the problem is not just Putin….a majority of Russians would like to see all or part of the former USSR incorporated into Russia.

      • vitrohon

        Right you are ! There isn’t a ” Bismarck among them ” …. Just a bunch
        of Red Herrings !

    • vēer

      LOL, first of all, since 1992 thousands and thousands of occupants left Baltic states, military personel of Russian forces that were located in the Baltic states.
      When Baltic states joined EU, they had the whole EU jobs market open to them and so they did it, they went out to make some money and see the world, do the two things that were not possible during soviet occupation!
      If not for soviet occupation, Baltic states would be as rich and prosperous or maybe even ahead of Finland, Sweden, because before WWII, Latvia for example, was quite prosperous land with hight education standarts and low rate of illiterates unlike RuSSia!

  • Patrick

    How can the S-300 see and shoot down planes under the radar horizon? Magic? Pixie dust?
    The author of this needs to open a book and compare numbers. Sweden is defenseless, but it dosen’t matter how much we spend unless we join NATO.

    • Roger Mikael Klang

      Aerostat, flying radars, UAV:s.

  • Noh

    Good grief!!!! And Finland?

    • Dagwood Bumstead

      Finland will be well and truly screwed as well.

      • Jokuvaan

        You can say that about the poor bastards invading enemy territory as well.
        Ukraine was caught with its pants down but we have prepared for a potential invasion from Russia for about 70 years.

      • Falx

        That will be a costly business for any attacker my friend. Simply the cost to military occupy Finland is immensely high considering the conditions, Finland s capabilities etc.

  • Dean Venture

    It’s not surprising Germany’s attitude has changed. They’ve been removed from the front line of the conflict since the early 90s. They had no problem with hosting NATO forces then. I have family who spent the 80s posted to Germany to stem any Warsaw Bloc assault.

    Do you think Putin would attack with American troops in the Baltics? An attack on them would probably drag them into the war rather quickly, and that would bring Alaska and Russia’s east into play. He would face a war on two fronts, and in the case of a war of aggression against the Americans, Canada would certainly join the fight, Article 5 or not. There would be other NATO nations represented in Poland and the Baltics; an attack on them would increase pressure on those nations to enter the war was well.

    A nuclear strike, even a tactical one, would be an insane provocation against the whole world. Everyone would turn against Russia (except North Korea), and it would be truly isolated. It’s also a huge risk with the US missile defense system, since the Americans might think that a full strike would be disproportionally catastrophic for Russia. While they wouldn’t launch a full strike after a tactical strike, they might not hesitate to use their own tactical weapons in response, since escalation would be a greater threat to Russia.

    Finally, there ought to be a mechanism for removing uncooperative NATO members. If they stymie defensive measures, they shouldn’t receive protection from that defense. You might see a bit more cooperation from countries like Germany if they knew there was a way to remove them.

    • Tim Bucknall

      yes! this: “Finally, there ought to be a mechanism for removing uncooperative NATO
      members. If they stymie defensive measures, they shouldn’t receive
      protection from that defense.”

    • Dagwood Bumstead

      As the demented dwarf IS insane, it is quite possible that he WILL use nukes to get what he wants. Nobody will lift a finger if he nukes one or two Ukrainian cities, Lviv and Ivano-Frankovsk for instance. And the fallout will spread to Poland, one of the dwarf’s enemies; he doesn’t care about the Poles any more than he cares about the Ukrainians.

      • Dean Venture

        I believe you are mistaken if you think no one would lift a finger against a nuclear attack, wherever it happened. I’m sure even China would be taken aback. They don’t want some lunatic using nukes living next door. It’s bad for security, and it’s bad for business. I’ll bet some countries might even use it as an excuse to settle some old grudges. Russia would no longer be dealing with sanctions, they would be dealing with an embargo and war on multiple fronts.

        I really hope we never have to find out.

        • Dagwood Bumstead

          They HAVE a lunatic living next door, and Russia isn’t dealing with sanctions, only pinpricks. The falling oil- and with a 6-months delay gas- price hurts far more than what the US and EU have come up with so far. REAL sanctions would mean first of all a total boycott of Russian oil. It wouldn’t harm the EU as there are enough alternative suppliers given the current oil glut, which will only increase if/when the sanctions against Iran are dropped and it is free to export oil again. The Netherlands could act unilaterally and given that much of Russia’s oil goes to Rotterdam a Dutch boycott would do enormous damage to the dwarf’s war chest. Sadly the Dutch government is just as weak-kneed as Merkelain and Hollandier are.
          A boycott of Russian gas would be far more difficult as many Eastern European countries are totally dependent on Russia for gas, but Lithuania has an LNG terminal in operation since December which can eventually handle 90% of the gas consumption of all three Baltics, and Poland is completing an LNG terminal near Stettin, which is a start in reducing dependence on Moscow. These two mean permanently less $$$ for Putin.
          There seems to be copy of a KGB fitness report on Putin floating around on the net in which his then superior states that Putin doesn’t care about the consequenes of his actions, though I haven’t found it yet. If true, his former superior was oh so right. And because he doen’t care about the consequences I believe he will have no qualms about nuking a Ukrainian city. He doesn’t care about having destroyed the Donbass- why would he care about a nuked Western Ukrainian city or two?

    • PoeTentiate

      An insane provocation that would cost him what? His popularity domestically? His people are well protected from truth and don’t want to believe it anyway. It’s very likely that unless the forces he was facing had tactical nukes of their own (which are limited to non existent) no one would respond in kind. I believe while everyone would be looking on and frozen in horror, they would not respond in kind. He would then complete his conquest of Ukraine, and the Baltics, and perhaps Poland.

      • commieslayer

        Not just his popularity, he risks being arrested and killed by the other powers of the russian state.

        • PoeTentiate

          Success is the ultimate defense against being deposed. Russia would not receive any response in kind if they used tactical nukes against non-nuclear states. The US would only response in kind if their own cities were hit.

  • Mazepa

    Monkey putins head will be on a stick long before this scenario could ever materialize.

    • Common European Home

      You guys are like ISIS

      • PoeTentiate

        And you’re like cow dung

      • Mazepa

        You were born an idiot

    • joeblow55

      And i suggest it occur in konigsberg.

  • Galitzian Knight


    • Oleg Grigoriev

      Unfortunetly, russian people too stupid to do that

  • FreedomWitnesser

    Neat. Too bad the No Agenda Show talked about this strategy about 8 months ago.

  • Roger Mikael Klang

    This was the best I have read on the subject Yet! I fully agree on the strategic part. Sweden must rearm Gotland. Sweden must join Nato NOW, but after a peoples referendum, everything else would be counter productive and an excuse for Russia to take action. And may I suggest that Sweden – together with Poland – also developes nuclear weapons? If America will allow it.
    If we do not do this, then the only solution left is for America to proclaim a new nuclear deterrent against Russia, or with other words a Mutually Assured Destruction or a new totally Cold war.

    • Morksuggan

      Sweden must stop spending Money on useless Muslim immigrants and gypsies and start to spend Money on its armed forces.
      Give it 5-7 years and then Sweden will be fully able to fend fore it self against Russia.

  • Roger Mikael Klang

    But then again, God gave Putin cancer. there is at least a good chance for it.

  • Roger Mikael Klang

    But the strait of Öresund probably means that Russia occupies Scania too. I have my doubt’s about Russia nuking Copenhagen after all.
    What you describe presupposes that there is no political preresistance. That actually Counts even when lacking the most necessary military ability. And also, there are often information leaking from Russia such as signals intelligence can pick up, and other forms of intelligence. But all in all your Geostrategic presentation is the best I have read so far.

    • Roger Mikael Klang

      You may wonder how political preresistance when lacking the most necessary military ability can work?

      Because in peacetime, wich we yet have here in the Nordic states, the people coming together can affect the opinion in the outer World even when we are outnumbered 40 to 1 militarily speaking. As long as the aggression is medial we can bite back. And even if the Russians only listen to Pravda we can hold up appearance for our selves. That means that it is harder to inflict moral harm on us, and we won’t implode politically and start excusing Russian behavior. We are actually holding together pretty well here in Sweden on an individual basis. And the government does what it can do. What we should do is creating a Swedish variant of RT propaganda in the Russian language for Russians.

      Also; The Russians want to make this nuclear threat of Vanin unto Denmark into an, as we say in Sweden ‘normallägesbild’, or in English ‘Normal level picture’. Don’t know how else to translate it. Only then they could really use the nukes.

    • Falx

      It cannot be. I expect that if Russia is nuking any of NATO soil they will get nuked too by NATO.

      You see now why they are so much bothered by the US missile shield from Deveselu – Romania

  • Mans Viedoklis

    1. Finland has 1,6 million people with guns. How can they be so easily occupied and oppressed?
    2. How would look Russia Empire economy after such occupation? Who would buy it’s gas & oil? Not the rest of the Europe. So only China? What would be the price than if only one customer? I don’t see any economical gain of this huge occupation? USSR collapsed because of economy and huge corruption in all levels and lie propaganda. What would be changed not to collapse again? I don’t see how this module could work out in future.
    3. I agree that Gotland should be better secured from realization of russian attack. And US should create base in Baltic States.

  • Murf

    the initial assault on Gottland sounds very plausible.
    I would caution that while Putin achieved surprise in his take over of Crimea, that was a small scale “special Ops” type operation. So small that Ukraine not been paralyzed politically even a couple of battalions could have ended this business with days.
    The scale of the operation depicted here is several magnitudes greater. The amount of planning that it would take to conduct the air borne operation is enormous. The ability of Russian to move massive armored formations and maintain them is also limited and very noticeable.
    Achieving surprise would be problematic at best. The July-August Russian intervention was very obvious weeks in advance by something as simple a cell phone selfies.
    I think the author’s confidence in the SA-300s and SA-400s is some what missed placed. Slovakia has three of the SA-300s and NATO has studied trained against them for years. Also the Israeli’s have conducted exercises against Cyprus owned SA-300s. They say they have developed ways of dealing with them. Israel and the US share a lot of intelligence. The Russian ADA is formidable, but not a be all and end all.
    The author also under estimates the US Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) capability. The US has been going head to had with Russian ADA for decades. There are several units of the Air Force train extensively in that mission alone. Saturation cruse missile barrages(1 B-1 bomber can carry 30) Stealth air craft such as the F-22 and B-2, Drone strikes, HARM missiles etc. Are all readily available.
    An age old military axiom says “Never take council of your fears.”
    One thing I do not dispute with the author is the sorry state of Europe’s defenses. As the saying goes; “Thus far the mighty hath fallen.” Only Poland and Norway seems to take their security serious. Also the US’s withdrawal from Europe was ill advised to say the least and may have encouraged Putin’s adventurism.
    The West has had a profound wake up call. Putin has made it abundantly obvious that he and his Russia are once again a clear and present danger to the west.
    I hope the warning is headed by our Allies and the current administration.

  • John Christmas

    There are very easy ways to stop the Putin Regime without using military force: (1) arrest all Oligarchs and seize their properties in the EU and US, (2) shut down all offshore banks in Latvia and Cyprus and freeze and investigate all accounts.

  • Jokuvaan

    I’m disappointed that euromaidanpress is spreading pro-Putin disinformation you usually expect from RT.
    Like this ignores USAF presence in rammstein air base, US/NATO subs and a entire country that would get involved one way or another is dismissed as “nations bordering Russia cowing in fear and others to join his Eurasian Economic Union, which is nothing but an
    euphemism for becoming colonies of the Kremlin once more.”, ect.
    Even if Sweden surrenders there is Norway-Finland-Baltic. Russian troops advancing too much west without securing the northern flank may find themselves cut off or their supplies severely reduced and there is the whole northern front.

  • Joakim Lejon

    Bring it on, we will see what happends. If russia does this…. there will be no more russia to speak of. Both EU with 10 times more ppl then russia and USA would not let this go unpunished.Russia lost against finland in 1939. They will lose again. An aggression against west, EU or USA will not be tolerated.

    • Ulf

      Problem is that Europe has 1/100:th the political courage to stand up against Putin. No one will risk their cozy seat in parlament to save the baltics. As seen with Yugoslavia, the Euro, Ukraine etc. etc.

      • Joakim Lejon

        I think if this would be happening, you would be surpriced how united we became.

        • Quartermaster

          It can be hoped. The question is, will the resources to do the work required be present to do the work? EU countries have savaged their military, and Germany has been at the forefront of that idiocy.

  • Christer_van_der_Dysterkwist

    Likely scenario but falls on the assumption that Germany will stand aside and even actively sabotage allied efforts.

    Germany may look appeasing, but is in reality highly pragmatic and seeks to protect and enhance its advanced manufacturing industry – it is, after all, one of the biggest exporters on earth, and that’s in the nominal sense.

    This pragmatism calls for not trying to escalate things at this moment, and definitely not lose valuable export revenue by sanctioning, or getting sanctioned by, Russia. However, once Russia goes out to war, in effect destroying the lucrative exports markets in the rapidly developing central Europe, it will be in Germany’s interest to protect those markets and more importantly the relations with its Western neighbours. Those are in particular Europe’s nuclear powers, which buy 17% of Germany’s exports and guarantee its security.

    Its leaders also cannot afford to spend further €billions on bailing out countries or banks, which would be the effect if the Baltic states and the Eastern EU would fall into Russian hands. Yet failing to do so would have disastrous ripple effects on Germany’s economy, with banks and firms having invested heavily in the region.

    Until this scenario is imminent Germany will of course seek to calm the situation down, probably looking like it’s appeasing while also gaining Russia’s trust. But the idea that Germany would sabotage or stay indifferent to a Russian attack on fellow EU countries is ridiculous – it know that when it’s at this stage Russia is useless as an ally whereas good relations with the West would be crucial.

    • Quartermaster

      The “appearance” of appeasement is not just an appearance. Merkel is not looking to the future. She is trying to hold things together now, but at the expense of placing Germany in a very bad position down the road. If she continues much longer, this article will be seen as quite prophetic.

      Sweden and Finland had better wake up as well.

  • Gorgia Da Leontini

    Ok funny sci-fi novel.

    • Stuart Savage

      It may seem like a funny Sci-fi novel to you but Ukraine and Crimea are reality, you should think twice before speaking so flippantly. War is about power and control through force, Putin has already shown his appetite and bravado for recent illegal possessions, his hunger is not satiated and the endgame is reunification of what once was СССР. Also to bring Poland to its knees and to pay for it’s recent prosperity.

      • Gorgia Da Leontini

        Ukraine and crimea are reality becuase they are not in the EU and not in the NATO, i agree with what you think about Putin, but the war he moved to Georgia and Ukraine were moved because they were possible. Putin is obviously a “bad guy” but is not completely stupid or idiot. And maybe he started the Ukraine invasion even to prevent his own “backyard garden” to enter inside EU or NATO. Imaging an attack toward Sweden or Finland is simply sci-fi today. So is imaging a real and actual war against Baltic States or Poland, without depicting a World War III scenario.

        • Mantas

          And why do you think putin wouldn’t do that? “stupid or idiot”? he has his own logic and plans you wouldn’t know.

    • PoeTentiate

      The best part was the little green men. That actually were Russian Soldiers, who would have guessed?!!?

  • Lev Havryliv

    An excellent article. Anyone who has watched developments in Ukraine over the past year and a half will know that the Russians are quite capable of this scenario.

    The Russian technique of hybrid warfare involves breathtakingly cynical and self-serving actions that Western leaders leaders would not predict nor would they contemplate using similar underhand measures.

    The huge failure of the West in not arming Ukraine in its hour of need has sent a signal to Putin that his aggression against Ukraine will remain unpunished. Once again the West has shown little foresight and even less backbone.

    If Putin is stopped in Ukraine, his ability to threaten the rest of Europe is markedly diminished.

    A wake up call, indeed!

    • Christer_van_der_Dysterkwist

      “The huge failure of the West in not arming Ukraine in its hour of need has sent a signal to Putin that his aggression against Ukraine will remain unpunished.”

      A sincere question is why Kiev and the West is fighting for the existence of a country set to be forever divided by language, culture, ethnicity and geopolitical allegiance in the first place? What is the actual benefit of having a country in which half the population is set to be estranged by the foreign policy, regardless of what the foreign policy is?

      Would we not have avoided a massive loss of lives and infrastructure if Kiev and the rebels would have agreed on a two-state solution to begin with?

      • Lev Havryliv

        You have grossly exaggerated differences within Ukraine.

        Prior to 2014 there was no issue of separatism in east Ukraine. Not until the arrival of Russian special forces in Donetsk and Luhansk was there any significant fighting. The regions where the Russia-backed separatists have taken hold were the strongholds of the former president Yanukovich. He ran them as criminal fiefdoms. They are now bastions of anti-reform, criminality, Russian chauvinism and terrorism.

        Language is not a major issue either. Most Ukrainians can speak Ukrainian and Russian. Most Russian speakers consider themselves Ukrainians and have no desire to leave Ukraine.

        Russian propaganda has deceitfully attempted to tarnish the central Ukrainian government with accusations of persecuting Russian speakers. This is, however, a convenient cover for military aggression and terrorist actions against Ukraine. Hitler used a similar tactic when he tried to justify his aggression as protection of German speaking people in the 1930’s.

        In recent free and fair presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine an overwhelming proportion of Ukrainians voted for democratic, centrist parties with strong reform, anti-corruption and national unity agendas.

        Of course Russia has ulterior motives for finding divisions between east and west Ukrainians. Russia, by its military aggression is trying to dismember and emasculate Ukraine. Putin has frequently remarked that he believes Ukrainians are not even a separate people and nation.

        The war in Ukraine today is not a civil war. It is Putin’s war. A classic war by proxy of Russia against Ukraine. Ukraine, against great odds is defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity, an action that any country under attack would do.

      • joeblow55

        Why should the ukranians agree to anything?

  • Laimonas

    Is there somewhere Russian translation of this article? I’d like to send it to some Russian friends.

  • Dainius

    Funny how quickly Sweden reacted to this – they
    have announced re-establishment of military presence in Gotland 10 days BEFORE
    this article was released. Active troops on the ground with some armoured
    equipment means Commando type operation unlikely to succeed.

    We can
    see that Sweden is quick to learn (hence military spending increase) and it
    could get its military alert level raised for Russian exercise based simply on
    profile of it or if extra information is leaked to them by NATO. We have to
    remember that Sweden has 100 (62 by other reports) operational SAAB Gripen
    Multirole fighters available with 70 new ordered. This is formidable force.
    They could carry anti-ship missiles and try to stop any kind of air operation.

    what if Sweden decides to have its Navy out in a sea every time Russia has this
    kind of exercise?

    thing to note is that CIA or some other agency could sniff this kind of
    operation is being prepared or tensions rising and could increase quickly NATO
    presence/air patrol as it was done before in Baltics.

    • Joakim Lejon

      Agree, Sweden has subs roaming the sea there won’t be any ships comming.
      And you have to bypass all gripens to land on gotland…..not a likely scenario. Unless there is a full invasion….

    • Falx

      I m also optimistic … Sweden will get back in his military shape.

      Just look on how the Swedish state had saved the submarine construction capabilities:

      Prior to 1999, Kockums was controlled by the Swedish state through the company Svenska Varv AB. Having implemented a highly advanced variety of the Stirling engine for low noise submarine propulsion, Kockums was considered to have strategic value for the Swedish Navy. However, in 1999, Kockums’ main competitor on the submarine market, the German ship-building company HDW, acquired Kockums. In 2005, HDW was bought by the German industrial conglomerate Thyssen Krupp.[2] The time after 1999 was beridden with conflicts between Kockum’s only Swedish customer, the Defence Materiel Administration (Sweden) (FMV), and Kockum’s German owners. The Swedish view was that the technical advancements made in collaboration between Kockums and FMV ought to be used to create a new generation of submarines for lucrative export: the A26 submarine. On the German side, the A26 project was said to be regarded as a high-risk project that could lead to uncontrollably growing costs.[3] Superficially, the major source of conflict seemed to be that neither ThyssenKrupp nor FMV would accept carrying unforeseen development costs. As several technical innovations to be implemented in the A26 were kept in classified status at the FMV, ThyssenKrupp argued that the implied costs were too difficult to predict. This deadlock persisted for months until the FMV decided to cancel the order of the A26 submarines.

      Globally, the conflict also concerned the general business strategy. ThyssenKrupp insisted that Kockums ought to discontinue large submarine construction and to focus on the development of small submarines. Meanwhile, anonymous sources from inside Kockums claimed that ThyssenKrupp’s goal in acquiring Kockums was never to reach synergies with HDW, but only to eliminate its main competitor.[2]

      When the Crimea crisis erupted, Sweden’s defence interests in the future of Kockums came under closer scrutiny. The turning point was described by the chairman of the Swedish parliament’s Standing Committee on Defense (SCD), Peter Hultquist:[4]

      The wheels have turned. The government, possibly in response to Russia’s aggression in Crimea and the Ukraine, has decided that a strong industrial defense capacity that is Swedish-controlled will be the cornerstone that underpins defense policy and future capability.

      In the search for a partner to develop the next generation of submarines, the FMV approached the SAAB Group. During autumn 2013, Saab tried to reach an agreement to buy Kockums from ThyssenKrupp. ThyssenKrupp demanded to keep its monopoly position in the A26 deal, which Saab refused to accept, causing the negotiations to fail. Saab responded by approaching Kockums’ engineers, offering them employment at Saab Naval Systems. Thyssen Krupp tried in vain to keep its engineers at Kockums, proposing an extra month’s salary.[3]

      The hositility towards ThyssenKrupp reached a new level during the Kockums equipment repossession incident on April 8, 2014. As per protocol, two military trucks accompanied by armed soldiers entered the Kockums shipyard in Malmö to reclaim all materiel and equipment belonging to the Defence Materiel Administration (Sweden), FMV, as well as all secret blueprints and images. By orders from a manager, Kockums staff tried to sabotage the repossession by locking the gates with the repossession crew and escort still inside. [5] According to a spokesperson from FMV this is the first time they have had to forcefully repossess equipment. [6]

      Shortly after, ThyssenKrupp initiated discussions to sell Kockums to Saab. The deal was finalized on 22 July 2014, making Saab the new owner of Kockums


  • Dragon_2

    Very fanciful. You call this ‘military analysis’ or ‘amateur sci-fi’? There’s a thousand ‘how world war 3 will play out’ videos that are just as badly written and thought out as this on YouTube.

    Thomas Theiner, go back to your film company.

  • Lettus

    i disagree with the article. I think Russians are preparing for cold war started by NATO especially(USA) long before Ukraine. And why you people right this stuff. It just makes citizens of Baltic states go crazy!

  • joepiejee

    do’nt believe Europe will be de next?

  • Mader Levap

    I doubt this scenario, at least in near future. Russia still want to maintain pretense. It would be impossible in situation of direct, open military invasion of Gotland and baltic states. In medium to far future, however, all bets are off. Hopefully Sweden (and Finland) will use this time to streghten themself and join NATO.

    It would be fun seeing Russia again screaming this “NATO is surrounding Russia” retardity.

  • Joseph

    This is just brilliant! I love this optimistic notion that polish army could cripple Kaliningrad 😀

  • Andrei

    Breathtaking reading really, I liked it a lot, with one amendment. The writer didnt take in consideration the economic factor. Yes having tanks and nukes is important. Not having money to pay the ones that shoot the guns is even more important.
    Lets take the case of the Transnistria breakaway republic which is used by the Russians to keep Moldova and Ukraine in check. Ever since the rubble devaluation and oil price collapsing, the salaries and pensions in Transnistria have decreased to up to 50%. The question is not if those people will fight for Russia but whether they wont decide reintegration in Moldova and possibly in the EU sounds better. I mean Russian propaganda is fine and dandy. Not having money to buy bread is not.
    Anyway, it would be great if NATO is really preparing for the shock wave Russia can create. I think the answer is not militarily though but economic. Destroy Russian economy and you win the war before it even started.

  • vitrohon

    Most of the things said about the socialist Merkel and the appeasing , cowardly , Germans is true . If it weren’t for Merkel’s obedient , servile , agreement to Putin bidding , Ukraine and Georgia , would by now be in NATO !
    This in itself would perhaps not stop a lunatic like Putin , dreaming of ” empires ” , but it
    would certainly curtail his appetite , if Ukraine was armed and trained to NATO standards !

  • Asher Jacobson

    Who cares about the Russians when Swedish men are standing up to pee

  • joeblow55

    I dont see it. If putin nukes lodz, obama will nuke volgograd. The germans will be told by the americans to move aside or be trodden underfoot. The baltics will fight another hitler stalin pact. But absolutely correct, with a thug like putin, only force registers. Cut off the head of the snake.