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The Anti-Terrorist Operation in Ukraine: Summary for August 16 and 17, 2014

byRoman Burko

19/08/2014

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The Anti-Terrorist Operation in Ukraine: Summary for August 16 and 17, 2014

By Roman Burko

ATO Slowly Consolidates Around Donetsk and Horlivka

Having passed through Olkhovatka and Bulavynske, the ATO forces reached the eastern outskirts of Yenakijeve. It is important to realize that Horlivka is in fact two interlinked towns comprising Horlivka (north of the M04) and Yenakijeve (south of M04) where groups of terrorists have built a network of fortified localities. The area also contains water barriers that complicate the armed forces advance. Most likely that is the reason why the ATO forces lunged south towards Zhdanivka (south of Yenakijevo). There is no confirmed information in regards to the liberation of this urban area as the information is contradictory. However considering how actively the militants are abandoning Horlivka, as was noticed closer to the Sunday evening, they have lost control of the situation in Zhdanivka.

Thus the slip knot around the neck of Bezler’s group (call sign “Bes” (daemon)) is beginning to tighten. However, it must be remembered that some earth roads are still open, and these can be used by militants to retreat towards Dontesk or Svitlodarsk.

Considering the successful work of Ukrainian artillery and air forces, the danger of terrorists’ counter attacks in the direction of Debaltseve and Artemivsk has receded. The militants’ forces are evidently exhausted in this zone. Also the concern of an attack in the area of Panteleimonivka in order to unblock another way to Donetsk has also diminished, considering that the ATO forces advance towards Yasynuvata, thus covering one of the possible directions of such a strike.

As for Donetsk, the positions of the ATO and terrorist forces have changed a little over the weekend. The Ukrainian forces continued their attempts to advance from south-east via Mospyne, and even though they have not been very successful they forced the enemy to deploy new forces from the direction of Torez and Snizhne, thus depriving its striking power towards Savur-Mohyla. Besides, reconnaissance and diversionary groups of Ukrainian forces began to work in the city.

As we repeatedly stated before, the terrorists should not be thrown in an arc of strangulation and locked within densely populated towns. A rat pushed into the corner is capable of more aggressive and inadequate actions. It is surely necessary to leave controlled corridors used for pushing the militants out of urban areas to throw them into the fields. It remains a mystery why such a tactics is still not employed while the race for besieging and entrapping continues.

Over the weekend we had a chance to communicate with several fighters of volunteer battalions who directly participated in the recent engagements near Ilovaisk and other areas of the “D sector” of ATO. The guys state the fact that in the border line areas they are confronted not only by the groups of mercenary terrorists but also by the regular Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the General Staff of the Russian Federation. They say this is obvious according to the nature of teamwork of the enemy in conducting the battle, their battle uniforms and equipment, and their level of training. Over and above this, Ukrainian soldiers now and then capture regular troops of the Special Forces of the GRU. Also fire support is provided both from the territory of the Russian Federation and by shelling with MLRS BM-21 “Grad” previously deployed to the Ukrainian territory.

The Luhansk Oblast

Pervomaisk remains under control of terrorists; however the ATO forces have achieved progress from the northern direction, approaching closer and closer to this urban area. This is forcing the militants to pull back to Stakhanov settlement and further back to Alchevsk-Perevalsk, though they do it very unwillingly, still trying to counterstrike in the direction of Popasna.

A number of reports regarding redisposition of the terrorist forces, as well as movement of their armored vehicles towards Izvaryne suggest that they are playing a game of trying to obscure the location of their forces. It is clear they are employing their “white Trojan horses” located at this border checkpoint as a distraction, while they intentionally disguised the change of positions of their tanks and armored vehicles. Considering this fact we can suggest, that after successful inspections by the Red Cross representatives on the border, the half empty trucks will proceed into the territories controlled by terrorists. Right then the trucks will be loaded with the Russian armored vehicles, weapons and ammunition supplies which have been previously deployed via back country roads, for the secret transportation to Donetsk and other places where they are having trouble re-supplying.

Growing Problems with Attacks in the Rear of ATO forces

Over the last weekend we observed the beginning of aggressive activity from terrorist raiding units in the rear of Ukrainian military forces. For instance from Friday night to Saturday, a battle took place nearby the village of Mayaky (in Sloviansk district of the Donetsk Oblast). A similar situation can be observed in the Debaltseve district. A group of Ukrainian Special Forces that has being advancing upon Krasnyi Luch from the north-westward direction, while others were pushing east towards Alchevsk-Perevalsk. These forces unexpectedly discovered terrorists behind their lines in the area of Chornukhyne (close to Debaltseve). Such circumstances impelled transferring a part of the ATO forces to resolve the problem, thus reducing the effectiveness of the advancing forces.

Provocations and sabotage continue on the territory of the Amvrosiivskyi district in the rear of the ATO forces; dynamic actions were also observed in the area of Novoazovsk; fortunately the terrorists have been unsuccessful so far.

With this situation in mind it is important to pay attention to the possibility of unpleasant surprises from the direction of the settlement of Andriivka towards the high point (elevation) of Karachun; as well as the settlements of Shurove and Svyatohirsk which have not been completely secured.

Downing of the MiG-29 of the Ukrainian Air Force

The circumstance of the loss of the MiG-29 on 17 August leaves a lot of questions unanswered. The issue is what kind of weapon could be used to bring down the plane. There are suggestions that since it’s very difficult to shoot down a MiG with “Buk” or MANPADS, this could be done with the help of Russian specialists operating an S-300 system. But this is just an assumption; we are completely open to the discussion on this issue and the evaluation of new facts if provided by witnesses.

Dangers of Further Russian Provocation and Full Scale War

We should not forget about the possible dangers outside the ATO zone. Both in the private channels of terrorists (Zello, insider information) and in the public domain, there have been references to the date of August 19th, when a possible provocation from the Russian side could occur. The range of possible options is very wide, from large-scale sabotage and terrorist attacks to pre-emptive missile strikes. we believe that any of the options would be feasible and, moreover, the possibility of its implementation depends only on direct command from the Kremlin. We should not forget that a critical mass of Russian sabotage groups has been prepared, and they’re biding their time in the deep rear of the ATO. In such circumstances, the jingoistic tendencies and calls to throw all the forces to the East look naive. In the case of the Russian Army’s surgical strike in the direction of Kharkiv with the simultaneous advance from the southern direction, the ATO forces with the best trained units and soldiers, hardened by fighting, could end up encircled exactly there. A parallel advance by the Russian Army on Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts and their march on Kyiv won’t be far behind. This version is indirectly confirmed by the conversations of terrorists via Zello, in which they state that their main task is to wear down the Ukrainian forces as much as possible, to pave the way for the Russian Army actions.

Those who naively believe that a full-scale war with Russia will not happen are profoundly mistaken. We believe we won’t be able to avoid the war. We can only try and postpone it through diplomatic efforts and continuous defensive deployments at the locations of potential strikes, but it can’t be avoided altogether. Of course, we can hope for Western military aid, but we shouldn’t get carried away; no one will do our work for us. We can only draw from the experience of guerrilla wars and immediately create groups that could oppose the enemy in the rear. Russia is The Beast that has driven itself into a corner, and so it is extremely aggressive and unpredictable. We believe in our victory, and we know that it will not be easy, but it is still inevitable … Glory to the nation, death to the enemies!

[hr]Source: burkonews.info, Translated by Max Alginin and Roman Vlasov, edited by Larry Field

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Меня спрашивают, зачем я протестую против Гергиева

Меня спрашивают о Гергиеве: "Зачем вы протестуете? Чего добиваетесь? Кому от этого лучше?" Спрашивают настоящие друзья, люди, мнение…

byVarious internet sources

Archive

February 7: The West should not rule out military resolution of the conflict in Ukraine

February 7 – 5 Ukrainian military were killed and 26 injured in the conflict area in Donbas in the last 24 hours, – informedVolodymyr Polevyi, deputy head of the Information Center of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.

February 7 – President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during Munich Security Conference. NATO Secretary General has said that the alliance is strengthening collective security system as well as spoke about providing political and practical support to Ukraine on behalf of NATO.

February 7 – The West should not rule out military resolution of the conflict in Ukraine, – said on Saturday in MunichSupreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO Allied Command Operations, Gen. Philip Breedlove, writes Spiegel Online. "We are not talking about sending troops to Ukraine," – said Breedlove. In addition, he called Vladimir Putin's proposals on the resolution of the conflict in eastern Ukraine "totally unacceptable".

February 7 – President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has held tripartite talks with Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and US Vice President Joe Biden – "The parties have coordinated further steps and stressed the need for an immediate ceasefire as well as continued dialogue on the implementation of all provisions of the Minsk agreements".

February 7 – Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has publicized intercepted conversations, which suggest that Russian military are provoking clashes between the ATO forces and militants of "People's Republic of Donetsk". They must be getting new "arguments" ready for Putin's negotiations.

February 7 – Armed Forces and the National Guards of Ukraine have received new military equipment – a modernized armored vehicle "Spartan", equipped with heavy machine gun and "Stugna" missiles.

February 7 – Ukraine is ready to support ceasefire at any time, – stated the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko in his comments to journalists at Munich Security Conference. Whereas the issues of state's federal structure or the autonomy of certain regions (Putin's wishes), may only be decided at a national referendum, not in Moscow or Berlin. All is needed for peace in Donbas is closed borders with Russian Federation and withdrawal of Russian troops, not peacekeeping forces. In his speech at Munich Security Conference, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko presented the passports and military service cards of Russian soldiers who "must have gotten lost in Ukraine" and were detained by Ukrainian military.

Near Debaltseve after attack Russian terrorists appeared "cemetery" Russian tanks (video).

Poroshenko in Munich (20 min)

By Taras Kuzio

Arm Ukraine and force Putin back to the negotiating table

Russia, despite its repeated denials, is sending large quantities of military equipment to the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine along with 9,000 of its troops. Movement of Russian forces, including the Pantsir-S1 missile system, are being tracked by think tanks and western intelligence agencies. Only Russian professional (not conscript) troops and intelligence officers can operate highly sophisticated Russian military equipment – not irregular separatist forces.

Respected Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer has concluded that the aim of Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, is to destroy Ukraine's independence by installing a satrap in Kiev similar to Chechen warlord Razman Kadyrov, thereby ending Kiev's goal of integration into Europe.

Putin reportedly told German Chancellor Angela Merkel that Kiev should deal with the separatists by buying them off with autonomy and money as he had in Chechnya, which to her was unacceptable.

Russia and its separatist proxies have never abided by the September Minsk peace accords and last month tore them up and demand a new agreement that would lend legitimacy to their territorial gains. Military assaults have claimed a growing number of civilian lives, including 40 in rocket attacks on the port city of Mariupol and a Luhansk hospital, with the total number of civilians killed rising to 5, 500, according to the UN. Growing numbers of combatants continue to die on both sides, as illustrated by these gruesome photos of a column of 16 Russian and separatist tanks that was destroyed yesterday.

In the face of the new Russian-backed offensive, pressure on US President Barack Obama to send defensive military equipment to Ukraine is becoming ever more intense. The release of a report for the Atlantic Council of the US by eight US ambassadors calling for military assistance was published along with a crescendo of commentaries in The Times, The Guardian, The Financial Times (here, here andhere), The Wall Street Journal (here and here), The Washington Post, The New York Times, The American Interest, The Christian Science Monitor, The Atlantic, The New York Post, The Boston Globe, The Los Angeles Times and Spiegel Online.

This chorus of support was backed by influential former US National Security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. A bipartisan group led by Republican and Democratic Senators Rob Portman and Dick Durbin called for military assistance to Ukraine "to defend its sovereign borders against escalating Russian aggression".

The New York Times reported that the US was considering supplying arms to Ukraine, something reportedly confirmed by Douglas Lute, the US Ambassador to Nato. Ashton Carter, President Obama's choice to become his fourth Defence Secretary, said three days later he was "very much inclined" to provide arms to Ukraine to fight Russian-backed separatists.

Ukraine has been seeking western weapons since the summer of last year but so far has received only non-lethal equipment such as winter clothing, bullet proof vests and night vision goggles. The US did send 20 light counter-mortar radars late last year and, with two-decades of cooperation in Nato's Partnership for Peace programme, is beginning to train four companies of Ukraine's National Guard.

Arguments against the supply of weapons, the Wall Street Journal wrote, "look increasingly naïve". Nevertheless, Canadian commentators have pointed to Ukrainian corruption (see here and here) and the presence of "UkrainianNazis" as a way perhaps to justify the Stephen Harper government's decision not to providie military support. High levels of corruption never stopped the supply of Canadian military equipment and special force trainers to Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan. Although Putin and the Russian media have repeatedly raised accusations of"fascism" in Ukraine, it is the Russian (rather than the Ukrainian) regime that more closely resembles the political science definition of "fascism".

Nato will not send weapons to Ukraine but the UK, Poland and Canada would follow the US lead. President Obama is fighting against his own Democratic party if he sticks with the position of Chancellor Merkel, who continues to put naïve faith in a peaceful solution.

Economic sanctions (helped by falling oil prices) have not discouraged Putin's reckless and bloody intervention in eastern Ukraine. Some of those advocating military support to Ukraine believe – as in the 1980s through weapons supplied to the Afghan Mujahedeen – that only a growing number of casualties will force realignment in Russian policy to that of public opinion, two thirds of which is against intervention in eastern Ukraine.

The Donbas conflict, engineered and sustained by Moscow, is already Europe's worst security challenge since World War II. There have been 40 close military encountersin the air between Russia and the west since the annexation of the Crimea in March last year. Putin believes he is fighting a "Nato legion" through alleged Ukrainian proxies and has always claimed the Euromaidan revolution was a western-backed coup. Russian soldiers dying at the hands of western weapons would return the world to the Cold War of the 1980s, although it remains unclear which US congressman would today step up as the new Charlie Wilson.

Putin will stop his destabilisation of Ukraine and return to negotiations only when western arms equalise both sides on the battlefield.

Taras Kuzio is a research associate at the Centre for Political and Regional Studies, Canadian Institute forUkrainian Studies, University of Alberta and non-resident fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations, School of Advanced International Relations, Johns Hopkins University.

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