Foreign Policy: Russia’s military production cannot keep pace with battlefield losses
FP analysis predicts Russia's war economy will face critical limits by late 2025, as weapon depletion outpaces production despite GDP growth.
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Russian economy
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ISW: Kremlin policies signal Putin’s growing concern over long-term economic stability
Kremlin policies, including 21% interest rates and long-term population growth plans, underscore concerns over Russia's defense industry and workforce.
UK intelligence: Inflation and sanctions push Russia’s economy towards increased financial strain
High interest rates constrain investment, increase debt costs and bankruptcies amid inflation and sanctions, per British intelligence.
Russia faces record workforce shortages, manufacturing sector hit hardest
They reached a historic low in the third quarter of 2024, per Russia's Central bank.
UK intel: Russia proposes 25% defense budget increase, social cuts in 2025
The draft budget has a 16% cut in social spending, prioritizing military funding amid 9% inflation and economic challenges from excess demand, per UK intelligence.
“War tax” on Russian LNG is key to starving Kremlin’s war chest
As Russia's military budget swells to nearly 8% of GDP, policy analysts urge the EU to implement a targeted customs duty on Russian LNG imports
Russia doesn’t have endless resources, its economy nearing tipping point, expert says
Russia's finite resources, strained by inflation, labor shortages, dwindling stockpiles, and sanctions, make it difficult to sustain its war effort beyond 2025-2026, as per military analyst Anders Puck Nielsen.
ISW: Russia aims for victory over Ukraine by 2026 amid growing economic challenges
Russia has economic and force generation constraints, increasingly relying on foreign military supplies, possibly considering mobilization if current efforts fail to meet operational requirements, per ISW.
Russian Central Bank raises key rate to 19% as inflation surges
The Central Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate for the seventh time since July 2023, when it stood at 7.5% per annum.
West can “easily” afford Ukraine aid to avoid much greater future costs, economist says
Western nations have the economic strength to support Ukraine against Russia's aggression, while inadequate aid risks higher future costs and global instability, argues Swedish economist Lars Calmfors.
Russian crude exports from country’s western ports plummet
Russian crude exports from Baltic and Black Sea ports dropped to 1.8 million barrels per day in July, a 19-month low.
June sees 4-month low in Russian oil export earnings
Russia's oil export revenues fell to $16.7 billion in June, a 4-month low, due to decreased crude and petroleum product exports, yet annual earnings increased by nearly 23%, Bloomberg says.
Sanctioned Russian billionaires continue to profit despite restrictions
Russian billionaires, many with close ties to Putin, have received $11.3 billion in dividends as companies resume payouts amid Russia's economic rebound. Top earners include sanctioned individuals who have found ways to circumvent restrictions and redirect exports.
FT: Western banks handed €800mn to Kremlin in taxes in 2023 despite promises to exit
Top European banks in Russia paid the Kremlin more than €800mn in taxes last year, four times more than before the all-out war, FT finds.
74% of Ukrainian employers experience a workforce shortage
The problems in Ukrainian labor market were exacerbated by migration and mobilization.
UK intel: Russia boosts military output in 2023, will have materiel edge over Ukraine in 2024
In 2023, Russia's defense industry boosted output, employing 3.5 million workers and refurbishing existing stocks. Artillery munition production surged, but may peak in 2024 due to capacity limits, still offering a likely material advantage over Ukraine for the year, per UK intelligence.
Russian fuel purchased by the EU brought Putin EUR 1.1 billion in direct tax revenues last year — report
The fuel entered the EU through Turkish and Indian refineries due to a loophole in sanctions.
UK intel: Russia may lean more on debt and taxes amid 2024 budget pressures
Russia's 2024 budget relies on optimistic 22% revenue growth to fund 26% higher expenditure, but projected oil and gas revenue gains may fall short, with government having to weigh measures like less National Wealth Fund contributions or more taxes and debt, per UK intelligence.
Bloomberg: War with Ukraine sparks labor shortage in Russia
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has aggravated a labor shortage that poses a challenge to its military and economic objectives, as workers seek higher pay and more options in a tight market.
UK intel: Wartime policies magnify Russia’s chronic underinvestment in public works
Heating systems are failing across Russia, leaving residents in sub-zero distress, as years of military prioritization over infrastructure combine with wartime strains on budgets and workforces, per UK intelligence.