ISW: Ukraine war enters critical new phase as Russia builds strategic reserves
Russia is forming a strategic reserve and has signed contracts with nearly 292,000 new recruits, increasing pressure on eastern Ukraine.
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ISW
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Moscow boasts of domestic drone production—but without China’s parts, Shaheds would never fly
Russia’s long-range drone program is propped up by Beijing, which provides critical components for assembly plants in Tatarstan and beyond.
ISW: Russia’s true drone target is Ukrainian and Western morale—Ukraine needs more Patriots
By exhausting air defenses and terrorizing cities, Moscow aims to break Ukraine and her allies.
ISW: Moscow tries to trade business deals with Washingtopn for Ukraine’s capitulation, while drones rain down on maternity wards and hospitals
As Russian diplomats discuss commerce, Ukraine endures brutal drone attacks demanding its collapse.
ISW: While signaling peace to West, Putin’s recent speech reveals drive to annex Ukrainian lands and erase its nationhood
From calling Kherson and Zaporizhzhia “Novorossiya” to branding Odesa as Russian, Putin and his aides double down on propaganda denying Ukraine’s right to exist as a separate nation.
ISW: Russian forces advance to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border
The Russian officials are "likely setting information conditions to illegally declare Dnipropetrovsk Oblast annexed."
ISW: Kadyrov’s resignation could unravel Putin’s control of Caucasus
While Kadyrov claims his resignation hinges solely on Putin’s decision, reports of failing health, family withdrawals from government, and a potential dynastic succession suggest deeper turmoil inside the Chechen power structure.
ISW: Ukrainian forces likely liberated Nadiivka village near Pokrovsk
Ukrainian forces have made territorial gains southwest of Pokrovsk while Russian troops continue attacks across multiple settlements in the Donetsk Oblast.
ISW: Putin doesn’t actually want UN “external governance” for Ukraine — he wants to stall peace talks
Vladimir Putin’s recent suggestion is more than just a provocative statement—it’s part of a strategic effort to delay peace talks, analysts argue.
ISW: Ukraine does not use HIMARS or ATACMS in Kursk, suggesting a US intelligence void
Russian forces have intensified their Kursk offensive as Ukraine’s precision strikes remain inactive, with ISW linking the shift to suspended US support.
ISW: Russia deploys ship-based Orion drones as Ukraine cripples Black Sea fleet
Russia’s Black Sea fleet has suffered severe damage from Ukrainian naval drone attacks, prompting the deployment of ship-based Orion UAVs for the first time.
ISW: Russia shifts forces from captured Kurakhove for new Pokrovsk offensive
Russian troops are redeploying from Kurakhove, captured in late December, to strengthen their position for an offensive around Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.
Russians have not captured Kurakhove, Deep State analysts challenge ISW
Ukrainian military analysts contradicted American reports of Kurakhove's capture, citing ongoing combat on the town's western and southern edges.
ISW: Ukraine’s Pokrovsk defense alters Russian plans to capture city
Russian forces face mounting personnel and equipment losses in their persistent attempt to capture Pokrovsk.
ISW: Russia exploits US policy uncertainty to pressure European allies on Ukraine, pushes for Ukraine’s complete surrender
Despite recent diplomatic engagement with Western leaders, such as Putin’s call with German Chancellor, the Kremlin shows no sign of backing away from its core demand for Ukraine's unconditional surrender, according to The Institute for the Study of War.
ISW: Significant Russian gains come with unsustainable costs, irreparable losses
Russian forces claim 1500 sq km advance, as they suffer the highest losses of the war: 1,345 daily casualties, 200 tanks, 650 armored vehicles through October.
Putin reaffirms war goals, rules out a ceasefire in Ukraine, Vučić says
Serbia's President claimed Russia's ruler revealed during a phone call that Russia keeps rejecting ceasefire possibilities while pursuing stated military goals.
ISW: Russian advances accelerate but remain slow in eastern Ukraine
Russian forces are advancing at just 14 square kilometers per day in September 2024, compared to 1,265 square kilometers daily in March 2022, according to a new ISW analysis.
ISW: Russian forces deploy up to 600 troops weekly for infantry assaults in one direction
Putin acknowledged ongoing economic challenges during a government meeting but claimed Russia could sustain the longer war.
ISW: Ukrainian forces make gains north of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast
The ISW identifies specific Russian units operating in Kursk Oblast, including elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade and the Alabai reconnaissance group.