The European Union will cut steel import quotas by 47% from 1 July and impose a 50% tariff on volumes above the limit. Ukrainian producers and officials warn it could cost the country up to €1 billion in export revenue in wartime, the Financial Times reported.
The EU's instrument against too much steel is about to catch the one major supplier whose steel sector the war has already gutted.
The European Commission, in a statement by INSIGHT EU Monitoring, said the measure responds to global excess production projected to exceed five times annual EU consumption.
Ukraine's steel production capacity has fallen to about 8 million tonnes, down more than fourfold from a historical level of roughly 40 million, after Russia's war destroyed Mariupol's Azovstal works and cut off the Pokrovsk coking coal that fed Ukrainian furnaces, GMK Center reported.
What does it mean for Ukraine?
At negotiations in Geneva, the Commission offered Ukraine a duty-free quota of 713,000 tonnes. Ukraine exported 2.65 million tonnes of metal products to the EU in 2025, and the EU has remained the main market for Ukrainian steel.
The offered quota is roughly 73% below last year's volumes, which is the basis for the Ukrainian side's warning of up to €1 billion in lost revenue.
"They will completely kill any possibility of Ukrainian companies to deliver on the European market," Oleksandr Vodovyz, head of the CEO office at Metinvest.
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Metinvest supplies more than half of Ukraine's steel exports to the EU.
Why can't Ukraine sell elsewhere?
Ukrainian steelmakers say there is no quick pivot to other markets, and the reason is the war itself.
"We look at different markets, but the Russians and Turkiye are there. Their electricity is ten times cheaper, they are not shelled and bombed every day," the Metinvest representative said.
Steel production chains require at least six months of planning, often a year for contract deliveries, and certification requirements further limit how fast suppliers can switch. A mid-year quota cut leaves little room to adapt.
