- Time is running out for Ukraine and Russia to agree to an aerial ceasefire for Russia's 9 May Victory Day parade in Moscow
- Russian forces are bracing for Ukrainian raids on the parade, setting up more than 100 air defense positions
- But a recent drone strike on a building just 6 km from the Kremlin is a reminder that Ukraine's drones and missiles can get through
There will be no aerial ceasefire for Russia's 9 May Victory Day celebration in Moscow. Russian air defenses are massing around the city to prevent Ukrainian drones and missiles from raining down on the Russian parade. But Ukrainian drones have already penetrated that air defense shield. They could do it again.
Ukraine had proposed a temporary ceasefire to coincide with Victory Day, when Russians commemorate the 1945 defeat of Nazi Germany. But Russian missiles and drones kept pummeling Ukrainian cities. Now there will be no ceasefire, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky stated on Wednesday.
"I thank every state and leader who supported Ukraine’s proposal for a full ceasefire," Zelensky wrote. "Russia responded to it only with new strikes and attacks. Throughout the entire day, almost every hour, reports of strikes have been coming in from different regions of Ukraine. Ukraine will act in kind."
Russian forces are preparing for Ukrainian strikes on Moscow. Stripping air defenses from other cities in Russia, and even from the front line Ukraine, they've massed those defenses around Moscow. Mapper DroneBomber has pinpointed no fewer than 101 air defense positions in three layers. They include:
- 10 regiments of S-400 long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAM) ranging as far as 400 km
- More than 80 Pantsir and Tor SAM vehicles, ranging 20 km and 12 km, respectively
- "Specialized" short-range gun and missile positions on rooftops and towers around and in Moscow
These shooters, supported by an array of radars and other sensors, pose a serious threat to incoming Ukrainian drones and missiles. In theory.
Air defense gaps
In practice, there are gaps in the Moscow air defense network. On Monday, a Ukrainian drone—apparently a Fire Point FP-1—threaded past the radars, missiles and guns and struck a residential building in Moscow’s wealthy Mosfilm neighborhood, 6 km from the Kremlin.
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As a signal, that FP-1 raid was "quite routine," according to Mark Krutov, who scrutinizes satellite imagery for Radio Free Europe. The upcoming Victory Day parade will be the sixth since Russia widened its war on Ukraine. Ukrainian drones have been striking Moscow since at least May 2023.
But the Ukrainians have yet to directly target the 9 May parade, even as Russian drones and missiles relentlessly strike Kyiv and other major cities—even on holidays. "The Russian military strikes Kyiv with missiles and drones every week anyway, without any clear goals or reasonable conditions for stopping," Krutov noted.
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Zelensky may finally be running out of patience. Whether he orders Ukrainian deep strike forces to attack Moscow on 9 May remains to be seen. But he struck a firm tone on Wednesday. "Depending on the situation overnight and tomorrow, we will also determine our fully justified responses," Zelensky stated. "Enough is enough."
Ukrainian forces are better equipped than ever for strikes at targets deep inside Russia. Fire Point FP-1 drones range as far as 1,600 km with a 120-kg warhead. Sport planes converted into one-way drones range at least as far and carry even more explosives. Fire Point FP-5 cruise missiles reach as far as 3,000 km with whopping 1,150-kg warheads.
Ukrainian missiles and drones have been striking more than 60 major targets inside Russian every month for several months, now. Whether the Victory Day celebration is the next major target is something we won't know until the Russian troops line up for the parade on 9 May.
Whether Ukraine strikes is a political decision. But it's obvious it can strike, despite the many missiles and guns the Russians have deployed around Moscow.
