US intelligence assessments conclude that Iran has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz in the near term, Reuters reported on 3 April, citing three sources familiar with the matter. The waterway, through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil trade passes, has been effectively blocked by Iran since the start of the war with the United States and Israel on 28 February.
According to the sources, recent reports warn that Tehran views its control of the strait as "the only real leverage it has over the United States." All three requested anonymity to discuss the intelligence findings. Reuters did not identify which agencies produced the assessments.
Iran's calculus
The intelligence reports describe the blockade as a deliberate pressure campaign: by sustaining high energy prices, Tehran aims to push President Donald Trump toward a quick end to the war, which the sources say remains unpopular with American voters.
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, said the war has produced an unexpected outcome. "In the attempt to try to prevent Iran from developing a weapon of mass destruction, the US handed Iran a weapon of mass disruption," he told Reuters. Tehran, he added, now understands that its ability to drive world energy markets through its grip on the strait "is much more potent than even a nuclear weapon."
One of the three anonymous sources was equally direct: "It is certainly the case that now that Iran has tasted its power and leverage over the strait, it won't soon give it up."
Since February 28, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has attacked civilian vessels, deployed mines, and imposed passage fees on commercial shipping, according to Reuters. The disruptions have sent oil prices to multi-year highs and produced fuel shortages across countries dependent on Gulf energy exports — with knock-on inflation risks that carry political consequences for Trump ahead of November midterm elections.
Trump's shifting stance
Trump has taken varying positions on the waterway. On Friday, he posted on Truth Social: "With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE." He has also listed reopening the strait as a ceasefire precondition, while simultaneously calling on Gulf states and NATO allies to take the lead on the issue.
A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Trump is "confident that the strait will be open very soon" and has been clear that Iran will not be allowed to regulate traffic through the waterway after the war. The same official noted that Trump has said other countries "have far more at stake in preventing this outcome" than the United States.
The military option
Experts and former officials warn that forcing the strait open militarily would be both difficult and costly. The waterway separates Iran and Oman and is 21 miles (33 km) wide at its narrowest point, but the usable shipping lane measures only 2 miles (3 km) in each direction — making vessels in transit easy targets.
Even if US forces seized Iran's southern coastline and surrounding islands, the IRGC could maintain effective control of the passage using weapons launched from deep inside Iranian territory, analysts say. "All it takes to disrupt traffic and deter vessels from passing through is one or two drones," Vaez said. French President Emmanuel Macron has made similar arguments against a military operation to force the strait open.
More than 40 countries attended a UK-convened advisory meeting on April 2 to discuss options for reopening the waterway.
What Iran wants
Former CIA Director Bill Burns, speaking on a Foreign Affairs magazine podcast, said Iran will seek to convert its current position into durable gains in any eventual peace settlement. Tehran, he said, will look to use its ability to throttle the waterway to win "long-term deterrence and security guarantees" and "some direct material benefits" — including passage fees to fund post-war reconstruction. "That," Burns said, "sets up a really difficult negotiation right now."
Some experts noted that even after the fighting ends, passage fees offer Tehran a structural revenue stream, giving it a lasting incentive to retain some form of control over the strait regardless of how the war concludes.
