Russia has been feeding Iran intelligence to strike US military targets. Washington’s response was to ease sanctions on Russian oil. Ship-tracking data published Wednesday confirms those waivers are working for one side only: Russian crude is selling; Iranian crude is not. The money flows directly into the Kremlin—and from there, into the war against Ukraine.
“I would expect countries to be more hesitant to buy Iranian oil under US waivers than Russian oil.”
Eighteen tankers carrying 13.5 million barrels of Russian crude are now available for purchase east of Suez—down from 25 vessels holding about 19 million barrels two weeks ago. Iranian floating storage has held near 27 million barrels since Friday’s waiver, with Chinese and Indian firms holding back over payment, insurance, and compliance concerns.
“I would expect countries to be more hesitant to buy Iranian oil under US waivers than Russian oil,” Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore consultancy Vanda Insights, told Bloomberg. “There could be quality concerns, and questions around the payment mechanism, which is not the case with Russian oil.”
A $9 billion windfall for the Kremlin
Urals crude was priced at $98.99 per barrel on 24 March—up nearly 75% over the past month, but slightly down from $110.73 on 19 March. Russia earned almost $9 billion from fossil fuel exports in the first two weeks of March alone, as Euromaidan Press reported.
Moscow shared drone targeting strategies—tactics developed and tested against Ukrainian cities—that helped Iranian Shaheds penetrate Gulf air defenses.
That reverses a sanctions push that had been working. India had pledged to halt all Russian crude purchases; the EU had cut the oil price cap; Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries had pushed Moscow’s revenues to their lowest since the pandemic. The US waiver undid much of that in a single decision.
The Washington Post reported on 6 March that Russia had been feeding Tehran intelligence enabling precision strikes on US military targets. One struck a facility in Kuwait on 1 March, killing six US service members.
CNN reported separately that Moscow shared drone targeting strategies—tactics developed and tested against Ukrainian cities—that helped Iranian Shaheds penetrate Gulf air defenses.
Rewarding the adversary
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Senators Warren, Shaheen, and Schumer wrote in a joint statement that Russia “is reportedly providing Iran intelligence to target and kill US servicemembers, and the Trump administration’s response has been to loosen pressure and help facilitate a windfall of $150 million each day for its war machine.”
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on 9 March: “Reports that Moscow and Tehran are working together to kill US troops should come as no surprise. Ukraine, on the other hand, is offering to help defend Americans and our partners in the Gulf. That alone should tell you who your friends are.”
The Iran war is draining the interceptors on two fronts: Gulf states burning through stocks, while Russia keeps launching ballistic missiles at Ukrainian cities.
Russia produces over 70 ballistic missiles per month, as Euromaidan Press reported—the weapons Ukraine relies on Patriot interceptors to stop. The Iran war is draining those interceptors on two fronts: Gulf states burning through stocks against Iranian drones, while Russia keeps launching ballistic missiles at Ukrainian cities.
Every dollar added to Moscow’s revenues by the oil spike and the sanctions waiver buys more of those missiles. When the waivers expire in early April, the question of whose war Washington is funding will be harder to ignore.
