Can exhausted Ukrainian territorials save Huliaipole?

Russian troops are marching into Huliaipole as the Russians press their manpower advantage, trading thousands of lives for slow but steady gains across eastern and southeastern Ukraine.

Without an influx of fresh troops, Ukrainian forces may continue to fall back, eventually exposing major cities in the east (Kramatorsk and Sloviansk) and south (Zaporizhzhia) to Russian bombardment and, in the worst-case scenario, ground assault.

Russian 127th Division exploits gaps in Ukrainian lines

Huliaipole anchors Ukrainian defenses in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The town was secure until a powerful Russian force led by the 127th Motor Rifle Division exploited gaps in Ukrainian defenses and advanced swiftly across the open terrain and advanced all the way to Huliaipole's outskirts earlier this month.

The battered, demoralized Ukrainian 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade garrisons the town with the help of the elite 225th Assault Regiment, which hurried toward the town last month in part to prevent the out-gunned, out-numbered 102nd Territorial Brigade from total collapse.

There were event reports the 225th Assault Regiment opened fire to prevent the territorials from retreating. The Ukrainian defense consolidated in Huliaipole itself. But infantry-starved Ukrainian units are no longer capable of reliably defending urban settlements from infantry-rich Russian regiments with a five-to-one manpower advantage.

Urban defense falters

Ukrainian forces deploy drones to compensate for infantry shortages, but built-up areas with their abandoned buildings and deep basements protect the attackers from the drones. Once a few Russians are lodged inside a town or city, more Russians are bound to follow. Ukrainian infantry assaults could dislodge them, if the infantry were available. Drone attacks can't dislodge them.

Yes, the Russians' slow-but-steady urban assault tactics are costly: the Russians lose several times as many troops as the Ukrainians do. But they work for a military that's still mobilizing more people every month than it's burying.

Russians cross Haichur River in two places

Thus, the Russians forced their way into Huliaipole's easternmost districts in recent days. The Haichur River, threading north-to-south through the town, is the main thing preventing a faster Russian advance into Huliapole, but even it isn't a foolproof defense.

According to observer Thorkill, who monitors soldiers' social media accounts in order to map Russian and Ukrainian moves in Ukraine, Russian assault groups have managed to cross the river in two separate places since last week. The Russians then began attacking toward the city hospital complex on the river's western bank.

"I do not rule out that Russian assault groups have already reached it," Thorkill wrote on Thursday.

Supply shortages and command dysfunction plague defense

The 102nd Territorial Brigade isn't equipped for this fight.

"I have to say that the information I gather from Facebook profiles of people associated with the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade sometimes sounds so unbelievable that I myself do not doubt it," Thorkill wrote. The territorials' claims are too scandalous to be fiction.

Thorkill reported reading about "very large supply shortages for the fighting units there, mass falsification of reports sent higher up, complete lack of trust between units and their neighbors resulting in the folding of flanks or even adopting all-round defenses, and about alcoholic commanders who remain in battalion headquarters under the influence of alcohol."

The garrison in Huliaipole recently got a new commander, Col. Yaroslav Sidorov, but Sidorov reportedly exercises little direct control over the town's defense. According to Thorkill, Sidorov is frequently overruled by the wider Operational Task Force South and its own commander, Maj. Gen. Mykhailo Sydorenko.

Risk of encirclement looms

The situation in Huliaipole is rapidly deteriorating for the Ukrainians. "The ability of Russian forces to cross the Haichur River will be a decisive factor in transforming their tactical success into an operational one," the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies warned.

According to CDS, there's even some risk that Ukrainian troops in and around the town could find themselves partially cut off by Russian forces advancing toward Ostapivske, 25 km north of Huliaipole. The large concentration of Ukrainian troops in and around Pokrovske in neighboring Dnipropetrovsk Oblast counts on roads passing through and near Ostapivske to quickly reach Huliaipole.