- After a long pause in vehicular assaults, Russian tanks and other armored vehicles are on the move all along the front line in Ukraine
- Russian mechanized attacks have resumed around Siversk in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast
- A 23 October attack involving four heavy vehicles and two dozen light vehicles ended in disaster for the Russians
- But more mech assaults are coming—and Ukrainian defenders might not have enough drones
The Kremlin spent much of this year to stockpiling and adding protection to tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other armor. And then, in early October, these vehicles attacked.
First, they attacked in the east around Pokrovsk and in the south around Mala Tokmachka. Then, on Thursday, they rolled out along a third front—near Siversk in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast.
It was a costly failure. But the next mechanized assault on Siversk might work.
Russian regiments and brigades east of Siversk, possibly including the 6th and 7th Motor Rifle Regiments, mustered a large for the daytime attack, including: a tank, three IFVs, three all-terrain vehicles and around 20 motorcycles.
The up-armored "turtle tank," wrapped in a metal shell of add-on anti-drone armor, led the way—and the similarly up-armored IFVs trailed behind. The tank, fitted with a front-mounted mine-roller, safely detonated several mines and shrugged off more than a few explosive first-person-view drones as it rolled west.
But more drones were waiting. After absorbing dozens of explosions, the tank finally succumbed to an FPV drone that apparently struck its engine compartment, disabling it. The crew bailed out of the burning vehicle, only to fall victim to yet another drone that struck from above.
Russian equipment burned all across the sector. The Ukrainian 54th Mechanized Brigade and 81st Air Assault Brigade claimed they destroyed every single attacking vehicle.
While it's possible a few Russian infantry dismounted and went to ground in the tree line, the assault almost certainly didn't budge the front line.
More metal on the way
Yet. If the Russian mech assaults around Mala Tokmachka and Pokrovsk are any indication, further mech assaults are likely around Siversk.
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After repeated attacks, the Russians managed to land infantry in Mala Tokmachka. They've tried several times to get a few tanks and IFVs across the no-man's-land and drop off infantry in the village of Shakhove, which anchors Ukrainian defenses northeast of Pokrovsk.
Letting the infantry attack on bikes or on foot for much of 2025, the Kremlin managed to save up hundreds, if not thousands, of heavy vehicles. It has enough armor in reserve to keep up the mechanized pressure in several directions.
Mechanized assaults are costly because all assaults are costly in this era of drone warfare. But as long as Russia is willing to pay the cost, the mech assaults can work.
Compared to infantry-led attacks, mech attacks "are definitely being faster in terms of advance and capturing the territory," Ukrainian drone operator Kriegsforscher noted.
That's because it might take just one or two drones to destroy a motorcycle or maim an entire infantry squad. But it takes around eight drones, on average, to disable a turtle tank, one Ukrainian drone operator told Ukrainian-American war correspondent David Kirichenko.
Ukrainian brigades might have just a few hundred FPV drones to defend against a single Russian attack. If there are enough attacking Russian vehicles and they can absorb several drones apiece before their crews die or give up, Ukrainian defenders may run out of drones before the Russians run out of vehicles.
That's apparently what happened in Mala Tokmachka. It could also happen in Shakhove. And the Russians clearly aim to achieve the same thing in Siversk: hurling metal and flesh at Ukraine's wall of drones until the drones are all gone.
