Moscow spreads false claims about Ukraine to justify a potential attack from Transnistria. The Russians are publishing “information” claiming that troops from France and the UK have arrived in the Ukrainian city of Odesa to intimidate the pro-Russian separatist region of Moldova—Transnistria, TASS reports. At the same time, Russian “intelligence” provides no evidence to support these claims.
Such statements could be used by the Kremlin to justify a potential offensive from Transnistria, effectively occupied by Russia since 1992, against Ukraine’s southern Odesa Oblast. Odesa, the region’s main city, has a port that is strategically important for Russia to control the Black Sea.
Propaganda narratives portray Odesa as a region with a supposedly pro-Russian population that the Kremlin aims to “liberate” and bring under its control.
Currently, Russian forces are stationed in Transnistria under the guise of a so-called peacekeeping mission, but exercise control over the region in practice. Estimates indicate that the entire Transnistrian territory, covering roughly 12% of Moldova, is under the control of pro-Russian forces.
Russian claims against Europe
On Tuesday, 23 September, Russia’s foreign “intelligence” service issued a series of statements accusing European countries of attempting to manipulate Moldova. Russian propaganda asserts that the EU aims to keep Moldova under a “Russophobic policy”.
“This is planned at any cost, up to the deployment of troops and the de facto occupation of the country. At this stage, NATO forces are concentrating in Romania near Moldova’s borders,”the Russian intelligence statement claimed.
Moldova warns of military threats
Moldovan leader Maia Sandu publicly warned on 22 September that Russia is attempting to influence the parliamentary elections on Sunday through voter bribery, disinformation campaigns, and violent provocations, NewsMaker reports.
Sandu emphasized that if Moscow gains control over the country, “European funds will cease, Moldova could become a springboard for incursions into Odesa Oblast, and the Transnistrian region will be destabilized."
“Today, with the utmost seriousness, I tell you that our sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, and European future are under threat," Sandu claimed.
Earlier, Bloomberg reported that Russia plans to recruit youth from sports clubs and criminal groups to provoke violence during the parliamentary elections.
Activities may include demonstrations demanding President Sandu's resignation if the pro-European party "Action and Solidarity", also known as PAS, loses or disputing election results if it wins.
In April, Nikolai Patrushev, an aide to Putin, had claimed that the vast majority of its residents “have nothing in common with Kyiv” and should decide the fate of the city by themselves.
His statements echoed claims by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov that Ukraine’s government does not represent the people in the city and other southern regions. The Kremlin’s insistence on the “will of the people” in Odesa serves as a pretext for possible future annexation attempts, mirroring the tactics used in Crimea and occupied eastern Ukraine.
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