Most Poles skeptical president-elect Nawrocki can maintain Ukraine ties

A nationwide poll shows that only about one in three Poles believe president-elect Karol Nawrocki will sustain strong ties with Ukraine, while concerns also loom over his readiness to act as commander-in-chief.

The survey, conducted for news outlet Onet on 13–14 June among 1,017 adults, found just 32.6% of respondents expected Nawrocki to “definitely” or “rather” maintain good relations with Kyiv, Polskie Radio reports. By contrast, 40.3% said they believed he “rather not” or “definitely not” would. Another 27% had no opinion.

Among voters of the conservative opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, which endorsed Nawrocki’s presidential run, 61.2% expressed confidence in his ability to manage ties with Kyiv. Meanwhile, only 34.8% of Third Way voters agreed, with sharp skepticism among centrist Civic Coalition (KO) supporters — 65.3% of whom anticipated poor relations under Nawrocki. A majority of Left voters (57.6%) echoed that concern, while Confederation supporters were more optimistic, with 47.5% expecting smooth relations.

Poland’s newly elected president says he is “currently” against Ukraine’s accession to EU

Mixed views on military leadership

Public opinion is also split over Nawrocki’s capability as Poland’s commander-in-chief. According to the poll, 44% of respondents said he would perform well in the role, compared with 36% who said he would not. Another 20% remained undecided.

Support again varied across the political spectrum. An overwhelming 86.9% of PiS voters and 81.3% of far-right Confederation supporters expressed confidence in his leadership of the armed forces. In contrast, just 16% of KO voters and 20.2% of those aligned with the Left shared that sentiment.

A narrow election win and polarized expectations

Karol Nawrocki narrowly won that presidential run-off on 2 June, with 50.89% of votes, defeating liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and is set to be sworn in on 6 August for a five-year term.

Despite supporting continued military assistance to Ukraine, Nawrocki's opposition to Kyiv’s EU and NATO aspirations and his proposal to curb refugee aid have fueled doubts.