Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from the Russian Federation.
Ukrainian drones penetrated deep into Russian territory, and explosions lit up the skies over Moscow and several key cities. While strikes on oil refineries and military targets were significant, one attack stood out—the hit on the Druzhba pipeline—creating international ripple effects beyond Russia’s borders as exports suddenly dropped.
As you remember from a previous report, Ukrainians destroyed a significant number of Russian air defenses in Crimea, along the front line, and deep in the rear while also threatening to strike the Kerch Strait Bridge again. This forced Russia to relocate air defense systems to cover newly exposed weak spots. However, this played into Ukraine’s strategy, as the large-scale redeployments left several key targets vulnerable.
This allowed Ukrainians to deploy hundreds of drones to penetrate Russia’s air defense grid, which was spread thin by the countless destroyed systems and subsequent relocations. As a result, Ukrainian drones reached as far as Moscow, with the first confirmed strike hitting the Oka-Center oil depot in the town of Serpukhov in Moscow Oblast, inflicting significant damage during the day.
What followed was Russia’s most restless night yet. Russian reports state that over 337 Ukrainian drones struck Moscow, Kursk, Belgorod, Oryol, Lipetsk, Bryansk, and Ryazan in the largest drone strike to date. Strikes hit oil refineries in the Moscow area, including the city’s largest refinery, which supplies up to 50% of its diesel and gasoline consumption.
Ukraine targets Russian oil: Druzhba pipeline and refineries disrupted
Explosions near the Ryazan military airfield put all Russian airports on high alert, undermining the Russian Air Force’s rapid response capabilities. Additionally, a control station for the Druzhba pipeline in Oryol was hit, halting Russian oil exports to Central Europe, particularly Hungary.
The Druzhba pipeline—one of the world’s largest, with a capacity of 2 million barrels per day—is a critical conduit for Russian oil exports to Central European refineries. Hungary imports most of its crude oil and gas via the Druzhba pipeline, with over 40% of Hungarian gas being Russian, making the strike on the control station particularly devastating for them. As a result, the Hungarian Foreign Minister, Péter Szijjártó, called it an attack on their sovereignty.
When the oil and gas supply stopped, the halt of operations of the Druzhba pipeline meant that Hungary would have to import much more expensive oil and gas from allies like the USA and Norway. The cancellation of Russian oil and gas exports to Hungary could jeopardize Russia’s hold on the Hungarian energy sector, as the country would have to increase its overall reliance on Europe for its energy needs.
Besides gas, the second-largest Hungarian energy source is nuclear power from its only nuclear power plant in Paks. This nuclear power plant depends on Russia’s nuclear fuel, uranium rods, and Russian engineers and expertise, consolidating Russia’s monopoly on the Hungarian energy sector. Through this, Russia maintains strict control over Hungary, as only Russian specialists and companies can currently maintain the reactors and supply critical equipment and fuel for their maintenance. Since nuclear power generates over a third of the country’s electricity, Hungary remains reliant on Russia to sustain its energy infrastructure.
The Hungarian Foreign Minister stated that he had discussed the situation with the Deputy Russian Energy Minister, who assured him that pipeline control station repairs were underway and supplies would resume soon.
Ukraine’s strategy: escalation or ceasefire leverage?
If Russia does not accept a ceasefire—at least in the air—Ukraine can exert much more pressure on Russia’s energy hold on Hungary by launching follow-up strikes to destroy critical export infrastructure further and delay repairs.
Overall, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure are escalating. The latest attack hit Moscow’s main refinery, which supplies half the city’s energy needs. Additionally, damage to the Druzhba pipeline control station temporarily halted Russian energy exports to Hungary. Continued strikes could strain Russia’s economy and weaken its geopolitical influence, potentially pushing it toward negotiating a ceasefire—at least in the airspace over Russia and Ukraine.
In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
