Ukraine must urgently find an alternative to American Patriot missiles, capable of intercepting Russia’s ballistic missiles as it cannot count on new shipments due to worsening relations with the US, says military analyst David Axe in a report for Forbes.
On 4 March, US President Donald Trump allegedly ordered a full halt of military aid to Ukraine to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after a meeting in the White House, which was described by reports as “catastrophic” and “unprecedented.” Despite Zelenskyy’s repeated statements that Kyiv wants peace and the absence of such statements from Russia, Trump accused the Ukrainian president of lacking desire for peace and ordered the Ukrainian delegation to leave the White House after the conversation turned to security guarantees, which the US has not specified since the talks between Washington and Moscow began. Currently, all that the US and Russia have agreed upon is the restoration of diplomatic relations, which, according to American intelligence reports, Russia likely plans to use to return its spies to the US.
Axe emphasizes that Ukraine can either produce most other necessary weaponry itself or receive it from European allies. However, when it comes to the world’s most advanced air defense systems, the US holds an almost monopolistic position among democratic nations.
With Trump increasingly leaning toward Russia, Ukraine and Europe can no longer rely on stable American support, says the analyst.
He recalls that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer recently announced a $2 billion aid package, which includes 5,000 short-range Martlet air defense missiles produced by the French company Thales. Additionally, Norway’s Kongsberg has revealed plans for joint production of NASAMS air defense missiles in Ukraine. However, according to Axe, neither of these initiatives addresses Ukraine’s long-range air defense needs.
He explains that while Martlet missiles have an effective range of up to 8 km and NASAMS up to 40 km, Patriot systems can intercept Russia’s missiles, drones, and nearly all ballistic missiles at distances of over 100 km. Given this, Axe argues that European nations must urgently equip Ukraine with a fully European-made air defense system equivalent to the Patriot.
He identifies only one realistic option—the SAMP/T system, often referred to as the “Euro-Patriot,” jointly developed by the MBDA and Eurosam Thales consortiums. Ukraine currently has two SAMP/T batteries but requires significantly more, along with hundreds of Aster missiles used by these systems.
Axe notes that Eurosam previously took nearly four years from contract signing to missile delivery, but the consortium has pledged to reduce this timeline to 18 months.
He also recalls that last fall, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu threatened to push through a new French law to accelerate missile production. This pressure yielded results: as of last year, the French government expected MBDA to deliver an initial batch of 400 Aster missiles (worth $2.2 billion) by the end of the year. Paris also planned to transfer nearly all of these missiles to Ukraine.
“So more Asters are on the way as a backup—and potentially a replacement—for Ukraine’s American-made Patriots. The Ukrainians will need additional SAMP/T launchers and radars, too, of course. But the process of Ukraine de-Americanizing its air defenses has begun. And will surely accelerate,” Axe concludes.
Related:
- US officials warn Trump-Putin talks could return Russian spies to American soil
- ISW: Kremlin dismisses US terms, demands Ukraine cede non-occupied territories
- Trump rules out Ukraine’s NATO membership, pledges to get “some land” back
- I can’t believe I said that: Trump doesn’t remember calling Zelenskyy “dictator”
- Biden, Obama, Trump: Different presidents, same Russian reset trap
