The Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Directorate of Intelligence(HUR) reported on 1 December Russia’s military leadership changes in Syria amid the opposition’s offensive. ISW notes that Russia seeks diplomatic solution.
HUR says Russia has dismissed General Sergey Kisel from command of its Syrian military contingent following operational failures. Kisel, previously removed from his position during the invasion of Ukraine, was initially reassigned to Syria before being dismissed again, the report notes.
According to the Ukrainian intelligence report, Russian troops have experienced significant losses after three days of successful offensive operations by pro-Turkish forces. Multiple Russian military units are reportedly surrounded, with hundreds of Russian personnel listed as missing.
The Kremlin has responded to these challenges by deploying General Alexander Chayko, who previously commanded Russian troops in Syria between 2017-2019. Additionally, Russian Navy Admiral Aleksandr Moiseyev has appeared at the naval base in Tartus, HUR says.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provided additional context on 30 November, noting diplomatic efforts to address the situation. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov speculated that the Syrian opposition forces’ advances allegedly are an “encroachment on Syria’s sovereignty.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov engaged in diplomatic communications with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to discuss the escalating situation.
ISW notes that it remains uncertain whether Russia can deploy additional assets to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, given its ongoing operational commitments in Ukraine. Earlier, Russia has already withdrawn significant military assets from Syria, including S-300 systems and potentially Wagner Group militants, to support operations in Ukraine.
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