One of the strategic goals of the Ukrainian incursion in Russia’s Kursk region could be to demonstrate the ability to seize the initiative in the war, which may have long-term political consequences for Moscow, said security expert Rainer Saks, according to UkrInform.
On 6 August, pro-war Russian Telegram channels reported battles in the border area, claiming that Ukrainian forces “invaded” the Kursk region. However, Ukrainian military officials have not made any official statements regarding this.
Commenting on the situation, Saks noted that it remains unclear whether this is a raid by the Ukrainian Armed Forces or an attempt to capture territory near the border.
“We will see in the coming week whether Ukraine begins to establish permanent positions there. In previous raids, they did not create permanent fortifications. But at this point, we still don’t know their ultimate goal—whether to advance further or expand the occupied territory along the border. We cannot say right now, but it will become clear in a few days,” said Saks.
He believes that, at a strategic level, one of Ukraine’s goals might be to demonstrate the ability to take the initiative. The political implications of these actions cannot be ignored.
“This is a challenge to the future of the Russian political regime. If they fail to handle it, certain domestic political developments may begin to unfold in Russia. I’m not saying this will happen immediately, and it’s not something that occurs over days or hours. But it could have long-term effects,” Saks said.
He added that, in such a scenario, the pressure Russia exerts internationally to force Ukraine into peace negotiations based on the current line of control “will be questioned.” Additionally, “the issue of territorial exchange will arise, and the Russian leadership won’t survive such disgrace.”
Related:
- Ukrainian forces reportedly establish foothold in border villages of Russia’s Kursk Oblast
- Mixed forces allegedly breach into Russian Kursk Oblast from Ukrainian side
- Kursk Oblast in Russia rocked by overnight drone attacks
- Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast under intense Russian attacks amid Russia’s Kursk incursion
