Poland's governing coalition under Prime Minister Donald Tusk misread how far Kyiv's ambitions had grown and kept presenting Warsaw as Kyiv's indispensable guide to Europe, Polish journalist Mateusz Mazzini argued in The Guardian on 26 August 2026. It also never readied Polish society to treat refugees as its equals, and it encouraged the belief that Warsaw could decide whether Ukraine gets into the EU, he wrote.
The two countries built their partnership during Russia's full-scale invasion, with Poland becoming Ukraine's main supply route for Western weapons, a leading provider of military and humanitarian aid, and a leading advocate for Kyiv's bid to join the European Union. That relationship has since frayed over refugee policy, historical disputes, and attitudes toward Ukrainians. A July poll by CBOS, Poland's biggest pollster, found that 52% of Poles opposed accepting Ukrainian refugees, compared with 42% who supported it, the first such reversal since the survey began in 2015.
He also points to Russian propaganda on Polish social media, where false stories about Ukrainian "welfare queens" living off Polish taxpayers feed hostility that keeps turning violent. Neither government prepared for the goodwill running out, he says, and Russian disinformation worked the gap they left to drive the two apart and thin Europe's backing for Kyiv.
Historical disputes have added to the tension
On 19 June 2026, Polish President Karol Nawrocki revoked the Order of the White Eagle, Poland's highest state decoration, previously awarded to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The move followed a decree Zelenskyy signed on 26 May giving an existing Ukrainian special operations unit the honorary name Heroes of the UPA, after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army.
Nawrocki cited Poland's dispute with Ukraine over the UPA's role in the World War II-era massacres of Poles in Volhynia. He said the decision did not change Poland's strategic security policy and that Poland continues to support Ukraine because Russia's aggression threatens Poland and Europe.
The journalist also faults Poland for missing how Ukrainians in the country have become more economically independent. They established more than 33,000 sole proprietorships in Poland in 2024, according to the Polish Economic Institute.
Ukraine has changed internationally as well, in his account, going from taking Western aid after the 2022 invasion to selling military technology and know-how around the world. Kyiv's leaders now approach Washington and Western European capitals on their own, he argues, and no longer need an "advocate," least of all in Warsaw.
Looking ahead, he expects Ukraine to integrate further into the European economy, competing more directly with French and German businesses as it already does with Polish ones. Kyiv, in his forecast, will approach Brussels, Paris, and Berlin as an equal rather than a supplicant, on the argument that the cost it has borne holding Russia off Europe entitles it to that place. His warning is aimed past Warsaw. Poland has already paid for misreading Ukraine, he writes, and other European capitals can still avoid repeating the error.
A wave of anti-Ukrainian attacks
The strain has also turned violent. Ukrainian citizens filed 180 hate-crime reports with Polish police in the first half of 2026, roughly one a day and more than 30% above a year earlier, national police figures showed, Rzeczpospolita reported. The figures count reports filed, not confirmed offenses.
In late July, three men allegedly beat a Ukrainian couple in Wrocław after asking whether they were Ukrainian. Police detained two suspects and treated the assault as a nationality-motivated hate crime. Earlier that month, a man in Łódź attacked a passerby he mistook for Ukrainian, breaking his nose and jaw and telling him his place was not in Poland.
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