- Ukraine lost three MiG-29 fighters in one day recently: one in the air and two on the ground
- The arrival of ex-Swedish JAS-39 fighters in 2027 could prevent such heavy one-day losses from recurring
- The JAS-39 shoots farther than the MiG-29, and spends less time on the ground
The Ukrainian air force lost three MiG-29 fighters on or just before 27 June: one in the air and two on the ground.
The air force isn't about to run out of MiGs any time soon. But the losses are a painful reminder that Russia's own fighters still out-shoot Ukraine's fighters. And Ukrainian jets are extremely vulnerable when they're not flying.
Fortunately for the battered Ukrainian air arm, it's about to get new jets that address both vulnerabilities. The Swedish-designed Saab JAS-39 shoots farther than many Russian planes. And it can get off the ground more quickly in order to dodge Russian attacks.
"The JAS-39 is the only fighter in the world for which I am ready to sell my soul," famous Ukrainian fighter pilot Vadym Voroshylov wrote as he began training to fly the Swedish jet. "Even to exchange my only love—the MiG-29."
For three years, Russia glide-bombed Ukraine in escorted pairs. Now Ukraine is glide-bombing Russia the same way.
The 27 June MiG losses came like a dreadful drumbeat. One of the twin-engine, supersonic fighters crashed during a combat mission over Poltava Oblast in central Ukraine, possibly as the result of a long-range shot by a Russian fighter firing an R-37 missile. The Ukrainian pilot ejected and survived.
Around the same time, Russian drones struck two of the Soviet-vintage MiGs on the ground at Voznesensk airfield in Mykolaiv Oblast in southern Ukraine. The three losses bring to 38 the number of MiG-29s the Ukrainian air force has written off since Russia widened its war on Ukraine in February 2022.
The nimble but aging MiGs fly a wide variety of missions. They patrol for Russian drones and cruise missiles. They lob precision glide bombs at Russian positions on the ground. They fire AGM-88 radar-homing missiles at Russian air defenses.
Extra jets
In stark contrast to the limited pool of heavier Sukhoi Su-27 fighters at Ukraine's disposal, the Ukrainians have plenty of MiG-29s. The Soviet air force left around 200 of the jets behind in Ukraine as the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Just 36 or so of these planes were in active service with three Ukrainian brigades when Russia attacked in February 2022, meaning Ukraine has now lost more MiG-29s than it had in frontline service that month.
But Ukraine's allies have donated 30 surplus MiG-29s to the war effort. And Ukrainian engineers have restored some derelict MiGs to flightworthy status. Exactly how many Ukrainian MiG-29s are active right now is a closely held secret, but it's probably enough to keep all three brigades at fighting strength.
That doesn't mean the Ukrainian air force is keen to keep losing fighters to Russian missiles and drones, however. The arrival of the first 16 ex-Swedish JAS-39s in Ukraine next year should staunch the bloodletting. The single-engine, supersonic JAS-39, better known as the Gripen, is superior to the MiG-29 in the air and on the ground.
Ukrainian MiG-29s carry R-27 air-to-air missiles that range around 40 km. The best Russian fighters carry R-37 missiles that range more than 200 km. Outranged by tens of kilometers, a Ukrainian MiG pilot can't even shoot back as he dives and maneuvers in a desperate effort to dodge an incoming R-37.
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The JAS-39 changes the aerial math, thanks to its 200-km-range Meteor missile—soon to be the first Ukrainian air-to-air missile that can match the Russian R-37. The JAS-39 changes Russia's calculations on the ground, too, because it spends less time there.
Russia hides its cruise missiles inside drone swarms. A handful of bombers do the rest.
"When the enemy systematically launches combined strikes on airfield infrastructure—Gripen is created for such harsh conditions," Voroshylov wrote.
It might take ground crews 30 minutes or longer to prepare a Soviet-designed jet for takeoff. According to Voroshylov, it takes just 10 minutes to prep a JAS-39.
That 20-minute difference matters. Before preparation, crews can tuck a fighter inside a reinforced shelter or hide it among trees. During preparation, it's harder to hide a fighter. Ground crews need a lot of bulky equipment to pump fuel and load weapons.
A fighter is arguably at its most vulnerable during the phase right before takeoff. The shorter that phase, the smaller the window for Russian drones and missiles to strike. "Minimizing the time spent on preparing the aircraft on the ground will reduce the likelihood of damage while the aircraft is on the ground, and most importantly, will save the personnel involved in preparing the aircraft," Voroshylov explained.
As JAS-39s begin joining MiG-29s in the Ukrainian inventory, the Ukrainian air force should become less vulnerable, overall. That's not to say Ukraine won't lose some of its Swedish jets. But hopefully it will never lose three in one day.
