More than 60% of Ukrainians categorically reject a ceasefire along the current frontline if Ukraine receives no security guarantees. The same share would approve a ceasefire if European troops were stationed near the frontline and would defend Ukraine against renewed Russian aggression, according to a new Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) poll, conducted between 7 May and 3 June 2026.
The poll quantifies the substantive Ukrainian public position on the ongoing diplomatic process: the ceasefire itself is not the disputed question, but security guarantees are.
Across the four scenarios KIIS tested, the lowest level of support (32%) is for a ceasefire without guarantees. Mid-range support corresponds to mid-range guarantees: 42% for European troops deep in Ukraine that would not fight, and 53% for security guarantees in the form of large-scale financial and weapons support.
Four scenarios in detail
Scenario 1 — ceasefire without security guarantees, money, or weapons: 61% categorically reject, 32% willing to approve (mostly reluctantly). This is the substantive Ukrainian public position on the unconditional ceasefire that Russian negotiators have repeatedly framed as a starting point: the offer falls short by roughly two-to-one.
Scenario 2 — ceasefire with European troops deployed deep in Ukraine, NOT participating in combat if Russia attacks again: 49% categorically reject, 42% willing to approve. A passive Western presence is closer to acceptance but does not yet command majority support.
Scenario 3 — ceasefire with security guarantees in the form of large-scale money and weapons supply: 37% categorically reject, 53% willing to approve. Material guarantees alone gain majority support, but with significant skepticism remaining.
Scenario 4 — ceasefire with European troops near the frontline who WOULD defend Ukraine against renewed Russian aggression: 33% categorically reject, 61% willing to approve. Active defense by European forces commands the highest support, with a clear majority in favor of a ceasefire under conditions that make Russian re-invasion materially riskier.
Methodology and coverage
KIIS conducted the survey by computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI), using random sampling of mobile phone numbers. The sample of 2,007 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older was drawn exclusively from territory controlled by the Ukrainian government, meaning the data does not include displaced Ukrainians abroad or Ukrainians in Russian-occupied territories.
The polling period of 7 May through 3 June 2026 covered the full month of the current phase of US-mediated diplomatic activity, during which Russia continued striking Ukrainian cities with Shahed drones and missile attacks.
