ISW: Russian generals feed the Kremlin a false picture: leaked map claims towns that were never captured

The Russian top military command has likely been handing the Kremlin a distorted picture of the war, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). A leaked Defense Ministry map claims a swathe of Ukrainian towns that Russian forces never captured, fitting a long pattern of inflated battlefield reporting. ISW assesses that the false picture is likely pushing the Russian leadership toward "increasingly unrealistic demands."

Russia's invasion has ground into its slowest stretch in years, with Ukrainian drones turning each advance into a costly crawl. The wider the gap between Moscow's claimed gains and the real line, the more its demands drift from what its army can deliver.

The leaked map

On 28 May, a Ukrainian open-source cartographer published what appears to be a leaked Russian Defense Ministry map on X. The document, dated 9 April, charts the front in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ISW reported it has reason to believe the map may be authentic.

The map claims Russian forces seized roughly a dozen settlements west and southeast of Orikhiv. Russia's Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, claimed on 21 April that his troops had taken Veselyanka and entered Zaporozhets. Those claims line up neatly with the leaked map.

Outside monitors found no such gains. ISW recorded no evidence that Russian forces had entered Orikhiv, Richne, Veselyanka, Zaporozhets, or Zapasne by 9 April. It found no Russian presence at all in Richne, Veselyanka, or Zapasne as of 28 May. At their closest, Russian troops were about 3 kilometers from Orikhiv, the target Russia has pursued since 2022.

A year of phantom victories at Kupiansk

The map fits a wider habit. Russia's command has misreported the Kupiansk sector in Kharkiv Oblast for months. Gerasimov claimed in late August that his forces held about half the city. Putin stated in early October that they held two-thirds. By late November, Gerasimov claimed the whole city had fallen.

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None of it held up. Ukrainian forces had largely cleared Kupiansk by late December, hunting down the last Russian infiltrators. Even Russian war bloggers turned on the command, accusing it of feeding the Kremlin false reports.

The claims did not stop. Gerasimov stated on 16 May that his troops were pushing toward Shevchenkove, well west of Kupiansk. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov then ordered the Western grouping on 28 May to accelerate advances along the Kupiansk, Borova, and Lyman axes. That order may be an attempt to make the ground match the maps.

The gap the maps hide

The inflated reporting masks a steep slowdown. ISW assessed that Russian forces seized 104 square kilometers in Ukraine between 1 January and 26 May. Over the same months of 2025, they took 1,619. Counting the ground Russia only infiltrated this year adds 628 square kilometers, and the gap still holds.

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In Donetsk Oblast, ISW puts the 2026 advance at 2.63 square kilometers a day. At that pace, seizing the rest of the region looks distant. Yet the Financial Times reported on 28 May that Putin believes Russia can take all of the Donbas by the fall, citing sources who speak with him. He then plans to widen his territorial demands.

"The Russian military command likely regularly shows such exaggerated maps to Putin, shaping his false perception of the frontline and the extent of Russian advances and likely leading him to make increasingly unrealistic demands.," ISW wrote.