Seven weeks ago, Russia’s energy minister insisted no additional fuel-export restrictions were needed. Now Moscow is preparing to ban jet fuel exports for one to two months, Interfax first reported on 26 May—a reversal driven by Ukrainian drone pressure that has dragged April refinery runs to a 16-year low.
Russia exports around 40% of its diesel output and is among the world’s major fuel suppliers.
The kerosene measure targets producer refineries—Rosneft, Lukoil, and other giants—currently exempt from a partial fuel-export ban in place since 31 January. Russia’s Interfax cited sources who split on a parallel diesel ban: one called the diesel-and-kerosene decision “at a high degree of readiness”; another said diesel curbs were “unlikely” because supply remains sufficient.
After Tuesday’s meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, oil companies were told to curb foreign sales in the meantime. Russia exports around 40% of its diesel output and is among the world’s major fuel suppliers; pulling either fuel off the market would lift prices internationally.
IEA cut its 2026 forecast for Russian throughput by 150,000 barrels a day to 5 million barrels a day.
As recently as 3 April, Russia’s Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev told reporters that “no additional restrictions on diesel fuel exports” were needed because reserves exceeded domestic demand.
April refinery runs then slumped to 4.7 million barrels a day—the lowest level since December 2009—and the IEA cut its 2026 forecast for Russian throughput by 150,000 barrels a day to 5 million barrels a day in its May Oil Market Report, citing “increasingly effective” Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
What changed in seven weeks
The strike tempo did. Ukrainian drones hit Tuapse three times in twelve days in April, then reignited fires at the same plant on 1 May. The 15 May strike on the Ryazan refinery near Moscow ignited vacuum-distillation units at one of Russia’s largest plants and left parked cars across the city coated in oil droplets.
Reuters estimated that 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity—about 2 million barrels per day—was offline at that time.
The same IEA report named the 290,000-bpd Perm, 360,000-bpd Yaroslavl, and 350,000-bpd Kirishi refineries among those forced to halt operations in recent weeks, alongside Tuapse—with Kirishi and Yaroslavl identified as key sources of ultra-low-sulfur diesel exports through the Baltic and Black Sea ports.
The damage to exports has been less linear. On 25 March, Reuters estimated that 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity—about 2 million barrels per day—was offline at that time, in what it called the worst supply disruption in modern Russian history.
That was a peak figure: ports came back online, tankers cleared. But the export pipeline has not fully recovered, and refining itself keeps slipping.
Internal strain becomes visible
The pressure is showing beyond the refineries. On the same day Novak met with the oil companies, the Far Eastern Energy Company announced mass electricity and hot-water cutoffs across Primorsky Krai, citing household utility debts totaling 5.8 billion rubles (about $81 million).
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Nationally, overdue household utility debt reached 415 billion rubles (about $5.8 billion) by November.
About 13,000 disconnection notices have been sent, The Moscow Times reported. Nationally, overdue household utility debt reached 415 billion rubles (about $5.8 billion) by November, even as 2026 tariffs are set to rise 9.9% and infrastructure wear in some regions runs as high as 80%.
Performance versus arithmetic
Novak’s office said in a government statement that “reliable and uninterrupted supply” of fuel to the domestic market remains a priority and called for continued monitoring and, if necessary, “additional response measures in a timely manner.”
Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer. Now it is preparing to ration.
The statement does not mention the jet fuel or diesel ban discussions. Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer. Now it is preparing to ration what its largest companies have always sold—at least for kerosene, the fuel its combat aviation also burns.
