Ukrainian counterattacks have liberated more than 400 square kilometers in southern Ukraine since winter, recaptured much of the eastern city of Kupiansk, and taken several settlements in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast since late April 2026, ISW reported on 20 May 2026.
The advances are the largest Ukrainian territorial gains since Kyiv's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast in August 2024 and have forced Moscow to choose between reinforcing its southern flank or sustaining its Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against the fortified Donetsk Oblast cities known as the Fortress Belt.
Syrskyi describes shift in tempo
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi told the Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi in a 15 May 2026 interview that the count of Ukrainian offensive actions exceeded Russian ones as of 14 May, citing precise strikes, the destruction of Russian reserves, and constant pressure on Russian assault units. He did not provide absolute figures.
The recapture of much of Kupiansk began in November 2025. Since early 2026, Ukrainian forces have expanded a mid-range strike campaign targeting Russian logistics, equipment, and manpower across the theater.
Drone strikes outpace Russian recruitment
Ukrainian drones struck 19,203 Russian personnel in the first 19 days of May 2026, according to data from Ukraine's Delta battlefield management system cited by Unmanned Systems Forces Commander Major Robert Brovdi, known by the call sign Magyar, on 20 May. Forces under his command accounted for more than 6,000 of those losses, he said.
Brovdi forecast that drone strikes alone would inflict more than 34,000 Russian casualties by the end of the month, excluding losses from artillery shelling, rear-area strikes, frontline ground combat, and other unconfirmed losses.
The losses outstrip Russia's ability to replace them. The Russian Ministry of Defense signed 70,500 military service contracts in the first quarter of 2026—an average of roughly 23,500 per month, below the monthly quota of 33,500 to 34,600. Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on 5 May that Ukrainian forces had met an April 2026 target of inflicting casualties exceeding Russia's recruitment rate and set a new objective of 50,000 Russian casualties per month.
