The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC and OPEC+ on 1 May, ending six decades inside the cartel it joined through Abu Dhabi in 1967, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, citing the country’s Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure.
For Russia, the timing is hard.
The UAE plans to lift production from 3.4 million barrels per day to 5 million by 2027—a target far above any quota the cartel had granted it. The ministry also said it would bring “additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner.” More oil. On the UAE’s schedule, not the cartel’s.
For Russia, the timing is hard. Oil and gas revenues collapsed 24% in 2025 to 8.5 trillion rubles ($113 billion), and the federal budget deficit hit 5.7 trillion rubles ($75 billion)—the worst since 2009. Oil and gas now make up just 23% of federal budget revenue, a 20-year low.
Iran war exposes the rift
The UAE statement named “disruptions in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz” as the backdrop. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, was sharper. He told the Gulf Influencers Forum on 27 April that the Gulf Cooperation Council’s response to Iranian attacks was “the weakest historically.”
UAE’s Habshan gas processing facility caught fire from Iranian strikes that night.
The Iran war began with US and Israeli strikes on 28 February. An 8 April ceasefire ended formal hostilities, though missiles still flew over Abu Dhabi in the hours after the announcement, and the UAE’s Habshan gas processing facility caught fire from Iranian strikes that night.
The cartel was already squeezing Moscow
The cracks were visible. From April 2025 onward, OPEC+ added 2.9 million barrels per day to the market in Saudi-led monthly hikes meant to discipline overproducers. Russia was a primary target.
The UAE’s exit removes a producer that had been holding back.
Brent crude fell 18% across 2025—its steepest annual drop since 2020. Russia’s Urals crude crashed to $34.52 per barrel in mid-December, half the $69.70 level Moscow’s budget assumed. January 2026 figures projected a further 46% year-on-year fall.
The UAE’s exit removes a producer that had been holding back—reluctantly and with friction—within the cartel. Now it can pump.
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What’s left of the price floor
Donald Trump has been pressuring OPEC for cheaper oil and tying US military protection of Gulf states to lower prices. The UAE’s departure—weeks after the Iran ceasefire, framed by Abu Dhabi as a strategic realignment—gives him what he wanted.
For Moscow, the lever is breaking.
For Moscow, the lever is breaking. Sanctions, Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, and a strong ruble had already halved first-quarter oil revenues year-on-year. The cartel has been the last mechanism propping up prices.
