The Kremlin would have to send around 1.5 million more troops to fully occupy the territory of Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Andrii Melnyk, says. Knowing this, Russia wants to take the region through diplomacy, as per Ukraine's Foreign Ministry.
According to him, the current pace of Russia’s offensive shows minimal territorial gains at an extremely high human cost. At the same time, more than 20% of Donetsk Oblast remains under Ukrainian control, despite Russian ruler Vladimir Putin's demands to hand over these territories without a fight.
“This is outright blackmail. We are talking about 6,000 square kilometers. Russia is demanding that Ukraine abandon one of its most fortified defensive lines,” Melnyk emphasizes.
Demand for capitulation meets entrenched defense
The diplomat stressed that behind these defensive lines are towns and villages with civilian populations who would be placed at risk in the event of a withdrawal.
“How can we leave hundreds of thousands of these people at the mercy of barbarians?” he says, highlighting the humanitarian dimension.
According to his estimates, the calculation is based on an average of about 254 Russian soldiers killed per square kilometer of advance. This “arithmetic of war” leads to the projection of roughly 1.5 million additional losses just to capture the rest of the region.
Strategic pressure instead of military cost
Melnyk noted that at current rates, Russia would theoretically have to lose up to 122 million people to fully occupy Ukraine — a figure that is effectively impossible given the country’s demographics.
“It is difficult to describe the loss of over 122 million lives as a ‘victory,’” he adds.
Against this backdrop, the Kremlin is attempting to achieve its objectives through diplomatic pressure and pseudo-negotiations, as a military path would entail an unsustainable cost for Russia.
