Satellites alone don’t explain Iran’s nine-fold jump in strike accuracy — InformNapalm says Russian SOF doctrine does

Tehran's missile accuracy against US and Israeli targets jumped ninefold within weeks of the US-Israel war against Iran— not because of better weapons, but because Russia transferred the targeting doctrine it spent four years refining against Ukraine, volunteer intelligence community InformNapalm says. The analysis connects confirmed intelligence transfers, battlefield data, and Russian Special Operations Forces (SOF) doctrine to explain a surge in Iranian strike effectiveness that raw satellite sharing alone cannot account for.

Intelligence sharing does not explain a ninefold accuracy jump

InformNapalm noted that Russian satellites surveyed at least 46 sites across 11 Middle Eastern countries between 21 and 31 March, according to Reuters, covering US and other military bases and critical infrastructure. CNN reported separately that Russia was providing Iran with the locations and movements of American troops, ships, and aircraft. The Jerusalem Post reported that Russia handed Iran a list of 55 critical Israeli energy facilities. The three outlets cited Ukrainian and American intelligence sources.

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But imagery is only raw material. According to InformNapalm, the Jewish Institute for National Security of America found that Iranian ballistic missile hit rates rose from about 3% in the first weeks of the conflict to about 27% by mid-March. ISW and JP Morgan Asset Management data show the proportion of missile strikes rising at precisely the same moment. Cluster munitions could widen the kill area, InformNapalm notes, but they do not explain target selection, strike synchronization, or air defense penetration. That requires a control system.

SOF as the missing link

According to InformNapalm, Russian military doctrine built two interlocking systems: the reconnaissance-strike complex (RSC), designed for high-precision long-range weapons receiving near-real-time data, and the reconnaissance-fire complex (RFC), integrating tactical reconnaissance with artillery and close air support. Both loop target identification, coordinate transmission, decision-making, and fires into a single continuous cycle.

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At the core of both systems sit Russia's SOF. Their function is to confirm targets, update coordinates, transmit data to battle management systems, adjust strikes, and evaluate effects. Without them, InformNapalm writes, "even the best intelligence data will not produce the desired result."

Ukraine's targeting template, exported

Russia tested the same approach in Syria in 2015 and subsequent years, where SOF guided aircraft and missiles, InformNapalm noted. It then applied the doctrine at scale against Ukraine, targeting power generation and transmission infrastructure across multiple winters.

The 55 Israeli energy facilities on Russia's alleged target list follow identical logic. Strikes on power infrastructure produce cascading state-level failures. Parallel strikes on air defense systems degrade protection and increase the effectiveness of follow-on attacks — the same sequencing Russia applied against Ukraine.

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"We are witnessing mutual integration of the combat capabilities of authoritarian regimes in real time," InformNapalm concludes. "This is not about exchanging specific data, but about transmitting a holistic warfare logic."

The warfare model Russia is now sharing with Iran was built over four years of war against Ukraine. As Euromaidan Press noted earlier, Ukraine's experience countering it — from interceptor drones to layered air defense — has made Kyiv a sought-after partner for Gulf states already exploring Ukrainian defense technologies.