Middle East or Ukraine: April is when allies must decide which matters more, as both wars lead back to Moscow

The war in Iran is consuming the missiles meant for Ukraine.
tehran
A plume of smoke rises after a strike in Tehran, Iran, on 2 March 2026. Credit: AP Photo
Middle East or Ukraine: April is when allies must decide which matters more, as both wars lead back to Moscow

In a few weeks, European countries may face a difficult decision: whether to direct future air defense system deliveries to their allies in the Persian Gulf or to Ukraine, Politico reports. 

At present, the war in Iran has reached a stalemate. The US and Israel have eliminated much of the leadership of Iran’s regime, but attacks continue. A ground operation could potentially change the situation, but it would likely result in casualties among American troops. Such a decision could negatively affect President Donald Trump's electoral prospects in the upcoming elections. 

The longer the conflict in the Middle East continues, the more it drains resources allocated to NATO’s core missions, supporting Ukraine and preparing for a potential conflict with Russia.

Meanwhile, Russia, Iran's ally, is gaining billions of dollars from the oil crisis erupting amid the US operation and will spend this money to fight longer. 

Missiles are running out, equipment is being diverted

Defending against Iranian drones and missile attacks is forcing European countries to expend air defense missiles, according to Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher at Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

France has already warned that its stockpiles of MICA air-to-air missiles are being depleted.

“Over a longer period of time, it will put a dent in the planning for how to build up the European defences. And it has an immediate effect on the capacity of Ukraine to defend itself," Wezeman noted.

Additionally, due to the war in Iran, the US has already withdrawn equipment, including F-35 Lightning II fighter jets, from NATO exercises in Norway, while the UK has redirected the destroyer HMS Dragon from an Arctic-related mission to the eastern Mediterranean.

Division in Europe: Allies question operation launched without their input

All of this is happening against the backdrop of already high demand for weapons across Europe.

Moreover, not all European allies support the US military operation against Iran. Many have criticized the conflict for being initiated without prior consultation.

Although NATO forces intercepted Iranian missiles targeting Turkiye, the US has struggled to convince allies to join the war on the grounds that their own territories are under threat, according to a diplomatic source within the alliance.

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