Recently, Russia has been actively using rhetoric about capturing Odesa, calling it in propaganda “a Russian city.” For the Kremlin, control over Odesa would mean full control over the Black Sea, port infrastructure, and key logistics, Glavred reports.
Odesa is a strategic logistics hub: a significant flow of cargo passes through the city, including civilian and dual-use cargo. From this cargo, Russia could later produce drones while bypassing sanctions.
Capturing Odesa would deprive Ukraine of one of its most important logistics hubs and would open a route to Transnistria, the breakaway Moldovan region, for Russia, as well as potential ambitions to control Moldova, explains expert Oleksandr Kovalenko.
There are three possible scenarios for how events could unfold:
According to Kovalenko, Russia might attempt three main options. The first one is an airborne assault. Currently, this is highly unlikely because:
- Large-scale parachute drops from Il-76 or Il-96 aircraft are improbable.
- The airspace is well-defended, and preparation cannot be carried out unnoticed.
- Aircraft would likely be destroyed over the Black Sea.
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Naval landing
In 2022, Russia already attempted this but failed. Currently, Russia does not effectively control the Black Sea.
“If the remnants of their large or medium landing ships try to deploy for an operation, this would also be detected in advance," believes the expert.
Anti-ship missile systems and maritime drones, which are constantly patrolling the Black Sea, would target these forces. Therefore, this scenario also seems unlikely. It did not succeed in 2022 and is even less likely to succeed in 2026.
- 3. Ground operation by crossing the Dnipro River
This operation would hypothetically be carried out by the “Dnipro” group, which, after retreating from the right-bank Kherson Oblast, was unable to establish itself on the right bank. Its objective is to capture the Kherson islands and simultaneously terrorize the civilian population.
Implementing Odesa capture with these forces would require enormous resources, which the “Dnipro group” currently lacks.
“This group is about 120,000 people, spread across the temporarily occupied left-bank parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions,” Kovalenko clarifies.
Ukraine responds: preventive defense of Odesa
Currently, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are actively strengthening the region’s defenses against likely Russian military provocations. Measures to protect the city of Odesa and Odesa Oblast are ongoing.
Actions are preventive, aimed at preempting Russian plans. For each region, Russia has its own scenario, to which Ukrainian forces are already responding and adjusting their positions.
