US strikes Iran—oil prices set to spike, Kyiv could feel ripple effects. But not all is bad

The US operation against Iran is likely to raise global oil prices. However, the OPEC meeting on 1 March could partially offset this effect if a decision is made to increase production, says Ukrainian fuel expert Dmytro Lioushkin, UNIAN reports. 

On 28 February, US President Donald Trump announced the start of a large-scale operation by American forces against Iran, noting that the goal is to protect the American people and neutralize the “imminent threat” posed by the Tehran regime.

“If the operation lasts longer than two weeks, this is negative for the market. If it stays within two weeks, it is more likely that oil prices will then turn downward,” the expert notes. 

He also says that on 1 March, the oil market "will open with a gap", that is, an instant price jump, possibly $3–5 per barrel.

“From Tehran to Kyiv”: how strike on Iran will affect Ukraine

According to Lioushkin, Ukrainian wholesale fuel prices may rise at the start of the week, while retail prices could add about 1 UAH per liter over several days. The expert emphasized that the strike date was deliberately chosen: on 1 March, OPEC will hold a meeting where, with 90% probability, a decision to increase production will be made.

“This is a powerful ‘painkiller’ for the fuel market. If the meeting were not happening soon, the event could have caused a huge price spike,” Lioushkin explains. 

"Missiles in response": escalation in the Middle East

In response to the IDF strikes on Tehran and other cities, Iran launched missile assaults on Israel and other countries. At the same time, the expert clarifies that, so far, there have been no moves by Iran to block or mine the Strait of Hormuz, and the military campaign is proceeding according to plan.

The duration of the operation will determine the extent of the impact on oil markets, the global economy, and regional stability.