Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, citing Ukrainian intelligence, has stated that Russia proposed a deal to the US worth $12 trillion in exchange for sanctions relief. According to a source, the proposal has already been coordinated, and work to lift sanctions is underway, The Economist reports.
However, even in the most optimistic scenario for US President Donald Trump, Russian revenue streams could generate only about $340 billion per year, far below the promised $12 trillion.
Furthermore, there is no guarantee that such income could remain stable over decades.
American business and returning to Russia
The journalists report that at least five US companies, including Apple and McDonald’s, have registered new Russian trademarks after previously leaving the Russian market.
During a meeting with Trump last year, Russian leader Vladimir Putin offered a “small gift” — the return of Exxon Mobil assets worth $5 billion, confiscated in 2022.
Russian exports of energy, food, and metals could generate up to $300 billion annually for US companies.
Additionally, Western Siberia and the Russian Arctic contain potential oil and gas reserves up to 62 billion barrels, while the far north holds 29 million tons of rare earth elements, equivalent to 74 years of global extraction. Moscow aims to increase its share of global critical metal production from 1.3% today to 10% by 2030.
Challenges for the West: bureaucracy, competitors, and China
Even a potential sanctions lift would face major obstacles. Western companies remember past issues with taxes, corrupt courts, and unreliable contracts.
Many market niches in 2022 were taken over by Asian, Turkish, and Chinese firms. In 2024, China accounted for 57% of Russia's imports, up from 23% before the war.
Roads near Moscow airport, once dominated by European and Japanese car dealers, are now lined with Chinese vehicles. Nearly 30% of Russian trade is denominated in yuan, and while ties with Beijing are profitable, they create unequal conditions for any Western investment.
