The complete destruction of international law will occur not when a major power launches an attack, but when the victim state legally formalizes those changes, says Valerii Chalyi, former Ukrainian ambassador to the US.
His statements come as Russia demands that Ukraine cede the entire Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts for blurred security guarantees from the West, Espreso reports.
According to him, this is precisely why Ukraine cannot yield to pressure aimed at legally consolidating occupation or annexation, which is the scenario Russia seeks.
Right of strong instead of rule of law
“There are now attempts to change the rules of international politics, primarily by major powers. Russia started this process,” Chalyi emphasizes.
He noted that the Kremlin deliberately launched a revision of the international order and, in his assessment, Russian President Vladimir Putin regrets not beginning full-scale aggression earlier.
In 2014, Russia was at the peak of its economic capacity, with strong positions in energy exports, arms sales, and financial stability.
Dangerous precedent for all: when annexation becomes "right"
Chalyi also drew attention to trends in other global centers of power.
“Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, the US effectively began playing the same game,” he says, referring to rhetoric about the potential annexation of territories, including statements regarding Greenland.
According to the diplomat, similar signals have come from China.
“In words, the same is now being done by leader Xi Jinping. He also speaks about this ‘right,’” Chalyi states.
This reflects a dangerous trend — the normalization of the idea that major powers can change borders through force or political pressure.
Moment of truth: when victim is forced to legalize its own defeat
In Chalyi’s view, the final breakdown of the international system will occur when one of the victims of such policies officially recognizes the new rules of the game.
“Ukraine is now effectively being pressured to legally recognize new global rules,” he claims.
According to him, this is the greatest threat not only to Ukraine, but to the entire architecture of international security.
The formula of resilience: why negotiations must remain within international law
Ukraine is at a turning point. Like many other states, it has no strategic interest in dismantling the existing international legal system.
The key task is to sustain the negotiation process within a framework based on the norms and principles of international law.
“Under no circumstances should pressure be accepted to legally consolidate occupation or annexation, which is what Russia wants,” Chalyi emphasizes.
