- Kostiantynivka is a critical link in a chain of Ukrainian fortifications in Donetsk Oblast
- But the city's garrison relies on one main road for the bulk of its supplies
- Using winter fog and rain for cover, Russian forces massing southwest of Kostiantynivka could advance toward the road
- If the Russians cut across the road, Kostiantynivka's fate could be sealed
Kostiantynivka is the southernmost urban strongpoint in a chain of strongpoints stretching 60 km toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast. The city with a pre-war population of 67,000 has also functioned as a staging base for Ukrainian troops defending Chasiv Yar and other nearby settlements.
But Kostiantynivka is in trouble. Fog and rain that blanketed the city on 31 January grounded Ukrainian drones, handing the Russian Center Group of Forces a perfect opportunity to infiltrate the weakest part of the Ukrainian line southwest of Kostiantynivka.
Whether any Russian managed to advance under the cover of bad weather isn't yet clear. If not now, the Russian advance is surely coming. Observers have warned for weeks that Kostiantynivka is exposed.
Kostiantynivka itself is heavily defended by the 36th Marine Brigade and 28th and 100th Mechanized Brigades. Moreover, "the city is packed full of strongpoints everywhere," mapper and analyst Playfra observed. The strongpoints include a large concentration of tall buildings that can function as fighting positions.
But there are too few Ukrainian troops to cover every possible route around the city. If the Russians can partially surround Kostiantynivka, they may be able to sever the main supply line into the city: the H20 highway. Cutting across the highway could begin the slow but inexorable strangulation of the Ukrainian garrison.
Kostiantynivka is especially vulnerable from the southwest around the villages of Illinivka, Stepanivka, and Berestok. There have been unconfirmed reports of Russian infiltrators reaching the ponds north of Illinivka. More recently, the Kremlin claimed without strong evidence that its forces captured Berestok.
Even if those villages aren't yet under Russian control, the Russians may have the local advantage. "In recent weeks, Russian forces have been building up around Berestok and the villages of Stepanivka and Illinivka," the pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team reported on Monday. A big fight looms.
Defensive preparations
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The Ukrainian command expected the current battle for Kostiantynivka. "Since mid-2022, Ukrainian forces have been active in reinforcing this fortress city even further, constructing four defensive lines and rings around and in front of the city," Playfra explained.
"The time to do this was found thanks to sacrifices on the Bakhmut/Chasiv Yar and Toretsk sectors, which, as fortresses themselves, held for months or years and gave the time for Ukrainian engineers to build new improvised but numerous defenses in the close rear," Playfra added.
But there were never enough Ukrainian troops to fully man the defenses around Kostiantynivka. Losing more troops to desertion and Russian action than they can recruit every month, the Ukrainian armed forces have turned to drones to fill gaps in the front line.
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Kostiantynivka's garrison is no exception. The city's defenses were always weakest around Illinivka, Stepanivka, and Berestok. But "the Ukrainians managed to somewhat stabilize the situation with the help of heavy drones," Playfra wrote.
Drones can't fly when it's really rainy, or see very well when it's really foggy, however. The extreme winter weather may allow the Russians to push north and destabilize the drone-stabilized defensive line around Kostiantynivka and its main supply line.
If Kostiantynivka falls, it won't be soon. And it won't be without cost to the Russians. But it's a cost the Russians are surely willing to pay as they eye the main prizes in what's left of free Donetsk: Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
