Russia’s top general claims over 500 km² seized in Ukraine in January — ISW says it’s only 265

Russia's military command continues to present demonstrable lies about battlefield gains to pressure Ukraine and the West into concessions Moscow cannot achieve militarily, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Russian top brass claimed sweeping advances across multiple directions since 1 January, but ISW tracking shows actual gains at roughly half the announced figure. Even pro-war Russian milbloggers have openly mocked the inflated claims as "parallel reality."

Gerasimov's claims versus tracked evidence

ISW reports that Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov inspected the Russian Western Grouping of Forces on 27 January and heard reports from its commander, Colonel General Sergei Kuzovlev. The general claimed Russian forces are advancing "in virtually all directions" and have seized over 500 km² and 17 settlements since 1 January. ISW tracked only 265.45 km² of actual advances between 1 and 27 January.

Gerasimov also stated the Dnepr Grouping of Forces had pushed to within 12-14 km of Zaporizhzhia City's southern outskirts. ISW found evidence placing Russian forces at roughly 18 km from the city instead. The general highlighted alleged expansion of Russian "buffer zones" in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts and added that the Central Grouping of Forces is now developing an offensive toward Dobropillia north of Pokrovsk.

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The Kupiansk fiction

Gerasimov particularly emphasized alleged successes near Kupiansk. He claimed Russian forces seized Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi and are attacking toward Kivsharivka and Hlushkivka to the southeast. He further stated that elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army are destroying encircled Ukrainian forces on the east bank of the Oskil River and have blockaded 800 Ukrainian servicemembers within a four-by-six-km area near Kupiansk.

Ukraine's Joint Forces Task Force flatly refuted these claims, reporting that Ukrainian forces maintain full control over Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi. ISW found no evidence of Russian presence inside the settlement. The think tank tracked the nearest confirmed Russian infiltration missions at roughly 3.5 km from the town's northern boundary and 8.5 km from its eastern edge.

ISW did observe a Russian infiltration into eastern Podoly, just northeast of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, on 8 January. However, a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger acknowledged on 16 January that Ukrainian forces had liberated Podoly, and another milblogger confirmed Ukrainian troops had cleared the infiltrators.

Russian milbloggers call out the lies

The Russian Ministry of Defense has been lying about the scale of advances for months, provoking repeated criticism from even pro-war military bloggers, ISW noted. Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior commanders have exaggerated gains in the Kupiansk direction in particular, claiming Russian forces seized the town in November 2025 despite ample evidence to the contrary.

Pro-war milbloggers widely denied Gerasimov's 27 January claims. A prominent blogger involved in crowdfunding for the Russian military called it a "beautiful report" — a phrase typically used to mock false battlefield reports. A Kremlin-affiliated blogger stated that forces in the Kostiantynivka direction submit false reports, but to a lesser extent than those in the "notorious" Kupiansk direction.

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Another blogger said the defense ministry's Kupiansk reports exist in a "parallel reality," adding that even "the most optimistic estimates" place Russian forces only at the settlement's outskirts, "while other estimates find that Russian forces are 'still a long way off." The blogger sarcastically suggested there may be a "hidden side of Kupiansk" where "all these strange events" are occurring.

"The Russian military command continues to present demonstrable lies and exaggerations about Russian battlefield gains in order to push Ukraine and the West to concede to the demands that Russia remains unable to achieve militarily," ISW wrote.

Small villages, big claims

The Russian military command has been boasting about seizing small rural villages to push the false narrative that victory is inevitable, according to ISW. Gerasimov listed captures and ongoing fighting in Symynivka, Starytsya, Bondarne, and numerous other settlements. UN Humanitarian Data Exchange figures show the largest of these, Drobysheve, covers about 8.3 km². Most have a total area under 2 km².

"The seizure of small, rural villages only a few square kilometers in area does not portend Russia’s ability to seize the much larger and heavily fortified cities in Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast in the near future," the think tank says.