Russia is reviving nuclear arms control rhetoric to pressure the United States into making concessions on Ukraine in exchange for normalized bilateral relations, according to the Institute for the Study of War. The Kremlin appears to be leveraging the expiring New START treaty as a bargaining chip. Moscow is conditioning any cooperation on Washington first normalizing bilateral relations. The Kremlin also aims to convince the US to concede to Russian demands on Ukraine.
Medvedev links arms control to normalized relations
The Kremlin began using the New START treaty as part of this strategy during summer-fall 2025, ISW says. Now, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev gave an interview to Russian state business outlet Kommersant published on 26 January. He discussed the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which expires on 5 February 2026. Medvedev reiterated Vladimir Putin's offer to informally adhere to New START terms for another year upon expiration—but only if the US does the same.
Medvedev claimed Washington has not responded to this proposal. He asserted that broader US-Russian arms control cooperation depends on the US accepting Putin's offer. Medvedev also claimed bilateral relations must normalize before Russia can cooperate on bilateral arms control measures.
Veiled threats accompany Kremlin's arms control rhetoric
Medvedev issued thinly veiled threats should Washington fail to pivot from peace efforts toward normalizing relations on the Kremlin's terms. The Russian official claimed that bilateral arms control cooperation supports strategic stability. However, he cautioned that other countries might pursue nuclear arsenals if this stability collapses.
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Medvedev stated Moscow would respond to any security threats. He pointed to the Burevestnik and Oreshnik ballistic missiles and the Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle as examples. Russia unveiled these weapons over the past two years.
Kremlin hasn't wavered from original demands
Putin and other senior Kremlin officials have repeatedly demonstrated that Moscow is not wavering from its original war demands, amounting to Ukraine's capitulation.
ISW says Russia intends to achieve its objectives militarily if it cannot do so diplomatically. Following high-profile meetings such as the Alaska summit in August 2025 and the recent Abu Dhabi trilateral talks, Russian officials have consistently reaffirmed Russia's war demands.
Strategy targeting Trump administration
ISW notes that Moscow has been attempting to use the prospect of improved bilateral relations to distract the US from Ukraine peace efforts since US President Donald Trump took office in January 2025.
Moscow likely aims to convince the US to "concede to Russian demands on Ukraine in return for improved bilateral US-Russian relations." The Kremlin may also aim to push the US to abandon the peace process without finalizing a settlement in exchange for strategic arms talks. This would allow Russia to continue its war unimpeded and without US pressure to make meaningful concessions, ISW says.
