At the annual Ukrainian Breakfast in Davos on 22 January 2026, President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff delivered an unexpectedly optimistic assessment: negotiations have narrowed to a single unresolved issue, and both sides appear willing to solve it.
"We've got it down to one issue, and we have discussed iterations of that issue, and that means it's solvable," Witkoff told the gathering of European leaders, Ukrainian soldiers, and business executives. "If both sides want to solve this, we're going to get it solved."
Witkoff said he was departing for Moscow that evening before proceeding to Abu Dhabi, where military-to-military and prosperity working groups would convene. He praised the Ukrainian negotiating team—Deputy Chief of Staff David Arakhamia and presidential advisor Rustam Umerov—saying he had spent "possibly 100 hours together since Geneva."
Tariff-free Ukraine: Trump's economic vision
Beyond security arrangements, Witkoff outlined an economic transformation package that could reshape Ukraine's postwar economy. Trump has proposed a tariff-free zone for Ukrainian exports to the United States—a move Witkoff called "game-changing."
"Imagine you get to out-compete because you're not paying tariffs and sending goods into the United States," he said. "You'll see industry move into that area in a huge way."
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, whom Witkoff described as "best-in-class prosperity advisor," has volunteered to help structure the reconstruction package. The evening before, Witkoff said, discussions centered on "the upward trajectory for the Ukrainian economy and financial system."
EU membership: political aspiration meets institutional reality
European leaders pledged Ukraine's eventual EU membership but offered divergent timelines. Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof was candid: "It will take a couple of years. We have to be honest about that."
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs framed Ukraine's accession as a security calculation: "When we talk about Ukrainian membership—yes, we will have questions about quotas... But let's keep in mind that Ukraine in the EU makes the European Union also much stronger from the security and defense point of view, with the largest fighting army in Europe."
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Taras Kachka pushed back against open-ended timelines. "We want your commitment to accept us by a certain date so that it will not happen somewhere in uncertainty," he said, adding that Ukraine remained committed to a merits-based process while urging Europe to "spend this year not yelling about complexities, not to lecture each other, but to closing all these things."
Frozen assets: Belgium says confiscation is "an act of war"
Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever delivered the forum's most sobering assessment on €90 billion in immobilized Russian central bank assets—most held at the Euroclear clearinghouse in Belgium.
"You cannot simply confiscate money—that is an act of war," De Wever said. "It has never happened in history. Immobilized money, even during the Second World War, was never confiscated."
De Wever noted that the December EU summit extended the asset freeze indefinitely, no longer tied to six-month sanctions renewals. But he was explicit: the assets remain on the table for a future peace settlement.
"When there will be a peace deal, the assets will be on the table. And let me be very clear about that: at that moment, if I have my way, every penny of that money will be used for the repayment and the reconstruction of Ukraine. I would be very sad to see one Euro return to Moscow."
Military support: NATO chief warns of immediate needs
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte acknowledged peace talks were progressing but warned they "will not happen tomorrow." Ukraine needs interceptors and military support now, he said, as Russian missiles and drones continue striking Ukrainian cities.
"It is minus 20 degrees in Kyiv as we speak," Rutte said. "Water supply is down, electricity is down... The US is willing to supply as much military stuff Ukraine needs, particularly these interceptors, paid for by Europeans and Canadians. We have to keep going."
Finnish President Alexander Stubb challenged the prevailing narrative that Russia was winning: "In the past 1,000 days, Russia has advanced a maximum of one percentage point of Ukrainian territory. Today, the cost of that is 1,000 dead soldiers per day."
Historian Niall Ferguson pressed European leaders on slow rearmament, but Rutte defended Germany's progress, citing a new ammunition factory built in 14 months "from nothing—there were sheep grazing there."
Putin's calculus: pressure vs. compromise
Former UK national security advisor Jonathan Powell, who has worked alongside US negotiators, offered a crucial caveat to Witkoff's optimism: "What we haven't seen is any evidence from President Putin that he is prepared to compromise."
Powell, drawing on 25 years of observing the Russian president, said Putin "finds it very hard to reach a decision. He's a judo player; he keeps his options open." Only financial pressure, military pressure, and a firm deadline would force a decision.
Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, now Norway's finance minister, agreed: "The only, only way to get there is to provide military support to Ukraine. Because the cost has to be so high that he accepts to sit down and respect Ukraine as a sovereign independent nation."
