Russia’s modernized 1970s Soviet missile can be intercepted but only from space: Expert says Romania, Poland, Germany hold key

Ukraine's allies could use modern missile defense systems to intercept the Russian "Oreshnik" missile, which carries at least six separate warheads. The missile would need to be engaged while still in space, says Oleg Katkov, editor-in-chief of Defense Express, Liga.net reports.

Key interceptors are based in Romania and Poland

“Oreshnik could potentially be intercepted by modern missile defense systems, including ship-based Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) and Israel’s Arrow 3 system,” he explains. 

Katkov says the critical factor is the timing of the missile’s warhead separation and whether it occurs within the engagement envelope of missile defense systems.

“It is impossible to determine with certainty whether partner systems can carry out such interceptions. The official parameters of neither SM-3 nor Arrow 3 have been disclosed,” the expert notes.

SM-3 missiles are deployed on Aegis-equipped ships based in Romania and Poland, while Arrow 3 is deployed in Germany.

"Oreshnik" is a modernized Soviet "Pioneer" missile

Ukraine currently lacks the means to intercept the “Oreshnik” along its full trajectory. In theory, the Defense Forces could attempt to destroy already-separated warheads using Patriot surface-to-air missile systems, but in practice, it is unlikely due to the limited number of targets these systems can track and engage simultaneously.

Regarding Russia’s claimed missile speed of 13,000 km/h, Katkov explains that this corresponds to approximately 3.6 km/s, which is typical for medium-range ballistic missiles.

He emphasizes that the “Oreshnik” is essentially a modernized version of the Soviet "Pioneer' missile system, deployed from 1976 to 1988.

Even advanced partner air-defense systems face significant limitations in intercepting such missiles, and Ukraine's capabilities in the near term will remain insufficient.