Despite any security deals signed by Ukraine and its allies, Western societies are not prepared to accept their soldiers dying for Ukraine, says Yevhen Dykyi, a former company commander of the Aidar Battalion. At the same time, there is no evidence that Russia plans to end the war in 2026.
This leads him to a stark but pragmatic conclusion: the only genuinely reliable security guarantees are “plutonium-based”, in other words, an independent nuclear deterrent.
Germany and troops: political rhetoric versus social reality
Commenting on statements by Friedrich Merz regarding Germany’s readiness to deploy troops to NATO countries bordering Ukraine, Dykyi cautions against overinterpretation. While Merz is among the few European politicians who clearly recognize the Russian threat, Germany remains a democratic state, where public consent is decisive.
Dykyi points to strong domestic resistance to the idea of mandatory military service. Mass protests, particularly among younger Germans, have included slogans such as “better to live under Putin than to fight.”
Such attitudes, he argues, reflect a profound misunderstanding of Russian occupation, including crimes committed in places like Bucha and Yahidne, and the illusion that replacing democratic governance with dictatorship would not fundamentally alter daily life.
Under these conditions, Dykyi says, it is unrealistic to expect a political mandate for the German chancellor to deploy troops to Ukraine.
Legally binding guarantees: democratic limits
Responding to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s calls for “legally binding” defense commitments, Dykyi notes that Europe is not an authoritarian system. Decisions are shaped by voters, not imposed by decree.
Even in the Baltic states and Poland, countries that fully grasp the Russian threat and strongly support Ukraine, assistance is framed in terms of aid, instructors, or volunteers, not the official deployment of regular forces. The farther west one moves in Europe, the lower the readiness for direct military engagement.
Dykyi also warns against applying moral pressure to Western societies. He draws a parallel with Ukraine itself before 24 February 2022: despite years of war, the annexation of Crimea, and fighting in Donbas, most Ukrainians did not truly believe a full-scale invasion was imminent until it began.
Peacekeepers and the illusion of guarantees
Dykyi recalls the words of French President Emmanuel Macron, who has described the current era as a “time of predators,” in which international law no longer serves as the primary safeguard and power determines outcomes.
In this context, discussions of “Coalitions of the Willing” and potential troop deployments do not constitute real security guarantees for Ukraine. They should not be dismissed, but Dykyi concludes that overestimating them would be far more dangerous than underestimating them.
