30,000 Western peacekeepers in Ukraine? Think 60,000–90,000, analyst says, and that’s not even main problem

Multiply Western troops by three for rotation. But still, Russia opposes all of them.
German army Leopard 2 main battle tanks at Rose Barracks, Vilseck, Germany, 29 January 2019.
German army Leopard 2 main battle tanks at Rose Barracks, Vilseck, Germany, 29 January 2019. Photo: US Army, by Gertrud Zach via Wikimedia Commons
30,000 Western peacekeepers in Ukraine? Think 60,000–90,000, analyst says, and that’s not even main problem

When the Western allies discuss 15,000–20,000 or 30,000 peacekeepers, it is worth considering this number as two or three times larger immediately, says military analyst Denys Popovych. The reason behind it is a rotation of troops, according to Radio NV. 

 
On 6 January, Ukraine and the US signed a joint declaration on security guarantees. The document indicates that after the war ends, the Ukrainian army itself, rather than partner forces on Ukrainian territory, will play a key role in maintaining peace.

Therefore, Ukraine's European partners should consider a significantly larger number of prepared visas. Meanwhile, the question arises about the ability of European armies to provide such a number. However, it is not the biggest problem.

NATO limitations: no willingness to compromise

The issue, Popovych stresses, is that Russia remains categorically opposed to NATO units being present on Ukrainian territory after the war.

“France and the UK are NATO member countries. As we understand, a compromise requires two parties. Russia has so far shown no willingness to compromise,” explains Popovych.

Meanwhile, the UK and France have already stated that they are short of troops available for deployment to Ukraine.

Ceasefire monitoring and technology: satellite and space technologies

Popovych also emphasizes the importance of satellite monitoring and space technologies, which will enable the tracking of ceasefire violations.

According to him, the technical capabilities exist. The question is how to properly record and analyze the facts of violations. Such a solution implies the participation of US intelligence to ensure transparent oversight.

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