Even a hypothetical end to the war against Ukraine would not serve as a lifeline for Russia’s economy, say experts. Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service has reported this, citing internal Russian analytical assessments.
The recession in Russia is no longer merely a forecast by opposition economists but an acknowledged reality among analytical centers close to the authorities.
"Practically impossible to avoid": when recession will begin
According to estimates by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, which operates within the Russian government's orbit, an economic downturn is almost certain to begin by July 2026.
“If current trends persist, the downturn will almost certainly start by July 2026. This is a scenario that is practically impossible to avoid,” the intelligence says.
At the beginning of 2025, the main risk was considered to be a tight monetary policy and a record-high key interest rate. Even its gradual reduction is now failing to change the overall picture.
Deeper problems than interest rates: economy "doomed to decline"
The agency emphasizes that the risk of recession is growing not because of a single factor, but due to the accumulation of structural problems.
These include declining business confidence, slowing economic activity, and weakening domestic demand.
“The consensus among Russian analysts is clear. Under the current conditions of tight monetary policy, the economy is doomed to decline,” the intelligence service says.
Signals of deterioration are only intensifying. In October, the recession exit indicator plummeted from 0.345 to 0.1, falling well below the threshold level of 0.35, which directly points to the risk of a prolonged recession lasting more than a year.
Even the end of the war would not save it: why recovery will not follow
Cuts in military orders, declining household incomes, and falling industrial output could further deepen the crisis. In 2026, additional fiscal pressure will force the government to redistribute resources toward “priority” sectors, entrenching imbalances and undermining remaining growth potential.
The downturn is systemic in nature, the Ukrainian agency concludes. Monetary maneuvers no longer resolve anything, and there are virtually no sources left for economic recovery.
